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JAKARTA: The heat is on in Indonesia's second direct presidential race.
Three presidential candidates and their running mates are fighting to win the hearts and minds of Indonesians, ahead of the July 8 ballot.
Pollsters are busy tracking the candidates' popularity. Until now, at least half a dozen surveys have been conducted.
The incumbent, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, remains the front runner, but his popularity has taken a beating.
Last month, his ratings reached a high of 70 per cent. That has now dropped to just 52.5 per cent.
And observers say the possibility of a one-round election is beginning to fade.
Toto Sugiarto, survey coordinator, Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate, said: "The comparison means there is a possibility of a two-round election if there're no extraordinary events taking place.”
Dr Yudhoyono needs to secure more than 50 per cent of the votes to avoid a dreaded run-off that could see his two challengers join forces.
Observers believe Vice-President Jusuf Kalla and his running mate Wiranto will very likely challenge the incumbent, if there is a second round.
Surveys show the pair's popularity has tripled from six per cent to 20 per cent in the last one month.
Sunny Tanuwidjaja, political analyst, Indonesia's Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "There are two big Muslim organisations that implicitly, although not officially, said that they're behind Jusuf Kalla. And I think if that's the case, it confirms the fact that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (popularity) is sliding and it may slide significantly in the coming days if these two organisations can solidify their support for Jusuf Kalla."
The two Muslim organisations - Nahdatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah - have a combined membership of over seven million dispersed across Indonesia. But support from them has been unpredictable.
Tanuwidjaja said: "NU voters are much easier I think in the past, to direct and to control. But if we look at the previous legislative election, we have also seen the detaching pattern of NU grassroots and their religious leaders. And we understand that Muhammadiyah voters are very independent towards their leaders. They are highly dispersed geographically."
Dr Yudhoyono has also courted Muslim groups for support, and his team remains optimistic of a decisive first round victory.
Dr Yudhoyono has every reason to remain confident despite the slide in his popularity. He enters this race with the backing of over 20 parties that won some 58 per cent of the votes in the recent parliamentary election. That means on paper, his coalition partners will just need to deliver on their commitment, and Dr Yudhoyono will be home free.
- CNA/yt
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