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SINGAPORE : Changi Airport's Terminal 4 will likely be built in the next 10 to 15 years. This is the estimate given by aviation experts.
They were responding to the announcement by the Transport Ministry on Thursday that it was working on a Master Plan on T4.
The new terminal is a massive project and local companies will be in the running for contracts expected to be worth millions of dollars.
Changi Airport Terminal 3 was initially slated to open in 2004, but it was cleared for takeoff only two months ago, so that passenger numbers could hit a critical mass.
And analysts say this same principle will guide the future Terminal 4 project.
Nicholas Ionides, Regional Managing Editor (Asia), Flight, said: "Terminal 3 itself wasn't strictly needed. Terminals 1 and 2 were already able to handle the traffic that was going through, but it is preparing for the future.
"Hong Kong right now, they are at capacity in some ways, particularly on the runway side of things, they are looking at building a third runway. You don't strictly need that, you could improve your operations and find ways to make things better, but they are thinking ahead because they have to."
Changi Airport, as a whole, handled more than 36 million passengers last year. And it has the capacity to serve more than 64 million jetsetters from Terminals 1 through 3 and the Budget Terminal.
But air travel in the region is booming and there is a need for airport infrastructure to grow in tandem to avert severe capacity shortfall.
The Airports Council International has projected the number of air passengers worldwide to reach over 9 billion by 2025. According to some estimates, air traffic is expected to grow at 5 percent annually for the next 20 years.
Mr Ionides said: "In Asia, it's probably going to grow at a faster rate than that, probably by 6 percent or a little bit more, so it's well above the industry average. And depending on how liberalisation takes hold particularly in this region, Southeast Asia, it may grow at an even faster rate."
While it is too early to project what T4 can offer, analysts believe the newly-opened Terminal 3 will provide a good benchmark.
This means, the new terminal will likely feature innovations in IT, with top notch amenities and a strong environment theme. Capacity-wise, it will probably add another 20 million passengers to Changi Airport.
Still, analysts say it is not just about adding capacity. The authorities will have to work at establishing a good relationship with the airlines, offering incentives to get more airlines to fly through or to encourage existing ones to increase their services.
To improve passenger experience, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore says four more airlines will join Singapore Airlines in operating out of Terminal 3 from March 26. They are China Eastern Airlines, Jet Airways, Qatar Airways and United Airlines.
The CAAS has been facilitating the airlines' shift by conducting trials since last month. These include passenger check-in, baggage handling, staff familiarisations, and "live" commercial trial flights to test the actual passenger departure and arrival processes.
- CNA/ch
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