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INDIANAPOLIS, United States: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton clash Tuesday in two pivotal nominating contests with the potential to remake, or effectively end their gripping Democratic presidential struggle.
Obama, his soaring message of change buffeted by an April blighted by political storms, hopes to finally land a knockout blow on his rejuvenated rival, after missing several chances.
He also needs a strong showing in Indiana and North Carolina to move on from controversies over racially tinged remarks by his former pastor Jeremiah Wright, and his values and patriotism.
Clinton, the clear underdog, is still buzzing from her campaign-saving Pennsylvania primary triumph last month, and is back in fight-to-the-death mode, stumping from dawn to midnight, in her latest, last stand.
She is promising a "game-changer" on Tuesday, while her rival is more circumspect, as befits the front-runner, predicting only close races.
Conventional wisdom has it that Clinton needs to win rust-belt Indiana, at least, to keep her improbable comeback bid alive.
A double loss would likely spark a superdelegate exodus towards Obama, and leave her under intense pressure to quit.
But a surprise Clinton win in North Carolina, or a closer-than-expected loss, could cast fresh doubts over Obama's staying power with only six more contests after Tuesday.
Money keeps flowing. The Clinton campaign said Obama had already spent 5.6 million dollars in Indiana compared to her 3.2 million. In North Carolina, Obama has spent 4.9 million dollars to Clinton's 3.5 million, according to the Clinton camp.
In a pan-Pacific warm-up for Indiana and North Carolina, Obama eked out a victory in Guam's caucuses by seven votes on Saturday, meaning the four pledged delegates up for grabs will likely be shared.
In the overall race, Obama, 46, appears to have a mathematical stranglehold.
But Clinton, 60, has used recent controversies to question his viability in a general election match-up with Republican John McCain.
Still, Obama has a clear lead in pledged delegates, who will formally nominate the Democratic Party champion in August. Clinton has little hope of catching up.
Obama also leads in the popular vote, and Clinton's hopes of reinstating millions of votes in Michigan and Florida, dumped over a scheduling conflict, have foundered.
Joe Andrew, a former Clinton supporter who defected to Obama last week, said the race was effectively over.
"Barack Obama has more states, more votes. We know what the result is going to be at the end of this process."
Clinton's sole hope is to convince superdelegates, nearly 800 Democratic Party officials who can vote how they like at the party convention in Denver, Colorado, that Obama is an electoral liability.
But such a strategy could lead to a convention meltdown, risks alienating millions of young voters who have flocked to Obama, and would infuriate African American voters -- a vital Democratic powerbase.
"It's theoretically possible she could turn around superdelegates with some more big victories -- but it's improbable given the numbers," said Bruce Buchanan, a University of Texas elections expert.
That leaves Clinton hoping that softening in Obama poll numbers will turn into freefall.
"It is always possible Obama could shoot himself in the foot and do so in a really damaging way," said Buchanan.
"That's her best hope."
The former first lady has become her message -- posing as a battered warrior as she woos down-on-their-luck working class voters.
"I've been nicked and bumped and knocked around a few times, but I have managed to get to the finish line," she said on Saturday at a museum honouring North Carolina's obsession with stock car racing.
Outrage over Wright may have frustrated Obama's hopes of expanding his coalition, so on Saturday, he released an ad refuting claims he cannot connect with white "Reagan Democrat" swing voters vital in a general election.
"Politics didn't lead me to working people. Working people led me to politics," Obama said, making his "closing argument" in the ad.
Latest polls show a tight race in Indiana, a true battleground, packed with voters feeling the economic pinch but blanketed by the Illinois senator's hometown Chicago media market.
In North Carolina, Obama led by 20 points a few weeks ago, but the race has since narrowed, with him up only seven percent in the average of recent polls by RealClearPolitics.com.
The website's tally of the delegate race had Obama leading by 1,740 total delegates to 1,604, and closing on his rival's current 269-251 lead among superdelegates, with fewer than 300 superdelegates undeclared.
A total of 2,025 delegates is needed to capture the nomination. - AFP/ac
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