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In the absence of official opinion polls, Taiwan's illegal gambling industry and a few academics are filling the gap to predict an opposition win in Saturday's presidential election.
Media reports said a large number of gambling operators were betting on a victory margin for the Kuomintang's Ma Ying-jeou of 500,000 to 700,000 votes, out of a total eligible voting population of just 17 million.
The last opinion poll before a pre-election ban took effect was issued 11 days ago and gave Ma a 20-point lead over Frank Hsieh, who leads the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. A lot has happened on and off the campaign trail since then, however.
Hsieh has focused relentlessly on China's crackdown in Tibet to warn that Taiwan could go the same way, while KMT lawmakers brawled in public last week and a government official slandered Ma's late father.
Gamblers have waged up to 10 billion Taiwan dollars(333 million US) on the outcome, newspapers reported. "Many operators have stopped accepting bets now. They are speculating on a victory for Ma of three percent, or around 500,000 votes," an informed source in southern Tainan told AFP.
The source, close to a betting syndicate, did not want to give a name. That's because gambling is in fact banned in Taiwan, apart from lotteries run by authorised banks, but there is an underground network involving private casinos, pigeon racing and bets linked to lotteries and horse racing in Hong Kong.
The source would not elaborate on why they have stopped taking bets, but local media linked it to a police crackdown on illegal gambling ahead of the vote.
The United Daily News quoted unidentified gamblers as saying Ma lost up to 300,000 votes after a brawl involving four KMT lawmakers, but picked up steam again after the sex slur against his late father.
The KMT candidate enjoyed a 20-point lead on a political futures index run legally by a group of leading physics experts, where some 3,000 people have placed virtual bets.
The index accurately predicted a razor-thin victory for outgoing President Chen Shui-bian in 2004.
Researchers believe that type of market to be more accurate than opinion polls as participants are active rather than re-active, said Li Sai-ping, the deputy director of Academia Sinica's Institute of Physics.
"Besides research purposes, we hope those who participate in the game can have fun while expressing their opinions," Li said.
Participants also have a chance to win a prize of 10,000 Taiwan dollars. AFP/sf
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