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Ma Ying-jeou |
From political whipping boy to an economic booster - this has been the image presented of mainland China by Taiwan's presidential hopefuls as the island's voters tire of anti-Beijing rhetoric and focus on their thinning wallets.
The China threat has been a central part of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's platform during his eight years in office, and China's response to the recent unrest in Tibet has been fodder for campaigns.
Still, voters who traditionally cast ballots based on political issues say they have reached a tipping point and economic issues are the top concern now.
Such sentiment could play a major role in the March 22 presidential race, which could help shape the future of ties with China.
Kuomintang presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has made stronger China relations, including a tourism deal with China, a major campaign focus, pledging annual GDP growth of 6 percent and a jobless rate of less than 3 percent. The frontrunner in Taiwan's presidential election is still pushing for closer ties with China despite Tibet, brushing off concerns that the violence could swing the vote against him.
"Taiwan is not Tibet," Ma told reporters, defending his plans to negotiate a peace agreement with China, even as the gap between Ma and his DPP rival Frank Hsieh grow closer as the days close to election. Some say that the violence in the Himalayan region may have persuaded some swing voters to switch to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's candidate Frank Hsieh, who has warned that Taiwan could end up like Tibet.
Although the DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh also favours stronger China ties, the stress is on the need to maintain Taiwan's sovereignty. With the Tibet unrest, fears of a unified China have been exploited.
But the political issues involving Taiwan's often tense relations with China that have dominated previous campaigns, is wearing thin on some voters. Little surprise then, that Hsieh who has been lagging so far in the election campaign is wrapping up the rhetoric in trade, arguing that the KMT's flagship proposal of a "common market" with China on trade would cost jobs here and drive the island closer to being swallowed up by its big neighbour.
The ruling DPP also says the economy is not as bad as it's made out to be.
Still, many grumble that outgoing President Chen has done little to improve bread-and-butter economic issues such as employment, even though in recent years exports have climbed keeping GDP growth healthy at 4-6 percent.
Taiwan, once counted among the fast-growing Asian tiger economies, will see undecided voters looking to ways to reverse more pressing issues such as reviving the economy and the employment situation.
Those in business will also point out that Taiwan firms that do business locally are significantly underperforming export-oriented peers on the stock market and research indicate that GDP growth could slow while household incomes start to shrink, with average starting salaries.
If the presidential elections yield another split government after January's legislative elections, it may result in more policy paralysis and impact Taiwan's sluggish home market which contrasts sharply with China, where a booming economy has minted a new generation of wealthy consumers and businesses looking for places to spend their money.
Despite historic rivalry, China has opened its markets to Taiwan investment and is working on a deal to allow mainland tourists to travel to the island.
But political tensions remain especially with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which leans toward formal independence for Taiwan while opposition Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) favours engaging Beijing.
If voters return a DPP president it could be a less than easy path to tread in the years ahead for both sides.
It doesn't mean though, that business ties will suffer after having grown steadily in recent years with Taiwan investors pouring up to $100 billion into China over the last two decades.
Analysts said the KMT's surprisingly large win on January 12, when it captured 81 of 113 legislative seats, shows Taiwanese voters want the government to fix the economy. Many say outgoing President Chen gave undue attention to issues of sovereignty and national identity and lacked fresh ideas on the economy.
Mr Chen's often hostile attitude toward China, whose economic boom has turned it into a global power, also didn't help the business climate.
So the final outcome on who takes the chair of President of Taiwan may boil down to the rice-bowl. CNA/sf
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