Focus on people not numbers, China told, as it faces unavoidable birth decline
Birth rates in China have plunged to a record low despite Beijing's relaxing of the strict 'one-child policy' in 2016. (Photo: AFP/Noel Celis)
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- China’s birth rate peaked in 2016, with the number of newborns falling by around 40 per cent over the last five years to the lowest total in modern history last year
- Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology says China’s focus should be on the quality of fertility services, instead of on fluctuating birth rates
China should focus less on fertility rates and the number of births, and instead focus on providing better services for prospective parents, while also respecting people who are reluctant to start a family, as it faces a potentially irreversible population decline, according to a research institute report.
Calls for demographic solutions have been unabating since China’s overall population suffered a first decline in more than six decades last year, while new births also dropped below 10 million for the first time in modern history.
And with no positive turning point in sight, a demographic crisis is set to remain one of the most profound challenges to China’s slowing economic growth.
“Fertility policies should focus on ensuring the reproductive environment for groups with strong current fertility demands, while being inclusive of those with weaker fertility intentions,” according to a survey published last week by the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology.
“The statistics should stop being overly focused on fluctuations in fertility rates or the number of births.”
China’s birth rate peaked in 2016, and in the past five years, the annual number of newborns has fallen by around 40 per cent, with women in China giving birth to 9.56 million babies last year.
Beijing continues to search for ways to ease its demographic crisis, and rolled out a slew of pronatalist policies, however, demographers believe that it would take time for the public to rebuild the trust lost during the pandemic.
“Greater attention should be paid to data changes related to improving the quality of child-rearing, including but not limited to changes in the scale of day care facilities, the enhancement of prenatal and postnatal care quality and increased investment in preschool teacher training,” said the Institute of Public Policy analysis by policy analyst Yang Tingxuan.
Last year, the number of kindergartens in China fell for the first time in 15 years, while the number of students enrolled in kindergartens and preschools also dropped, the Ministry of Education confirmed in July.
Unlocking reproductive potential requires a family-friendly and child-friendly environment that values individual development, family welfare and the easing of work-family conflicts, the survey added.
Analysts have said births in China could plunge further to between 7 million and 8 million this year, further clouding its demographic outlook.
China’s fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022 from 1.3 in 2020, according to estimates from the China Population and Development Research Centre, which they said was the lowest level for countries with a population of over 100 million.
“While this remarkably low fertility rate may be partly attributed to the impact of the pandemic, the trend indicates that the decline has been gradual since the small peak of 1.88 in 2017,” the Institute of Public Policy survey said.
“This suggests that, with the fading effects of the fertility policy adjustments, the downward trend in fertility rates has become an unavoidable norm.”
The government should also take more proactive measures to coordinate childbirth policies, and protect the childbearing-age population from any penalties, the survey added.
This article was first published on SCMP.
