6 things to know as Sabahans head to the polls in high-stakes election

KOTA KINABALU: More than 1.7 million Sabahans will vote on Saturday (Nov 29) in what observers describe as one of the most fiercely contested state elections in Sabah’s history, with no single party or coalition expected to secure an outright majority. 

Analysts expect post-election negotiations among parties to be as important as the vote itself. 

Issues that have dominated the campaign include longstanding municipal woes such as inadequate water and electricity supply, poor road infrastructure and a growing “Sabah for Sabahans” sentiment as local parties argue they, instead of peninsula-based parties, can more firmly push the federal government for the state’s full autonomous rights. 

Here are six things to watch as the East Malaysian state votes. 

WHAT TIME DO POLLS CLOSE AND WHEN WILL OFFICIAL RESULTS BE KNOWN?

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Early voting took place on Nov 25 for over 24,000 military and police personnel and their spouses. Despite rainy weather, the participation rate hit 92.5 per cent.

Most Sabahans, however, will cast their ballots on Saturday, with polling centres open from 7.30am to 5.30pm.

A total of 33,002 election workers will be deployed to manage the 17th Sabah state polls, with the Election Commission designating a total of 940 polling centres - 882 regular centres and 58 early voting centres.

The commission said in a statement in October that it has allocated an estimated RM116.8 million (US$28.3 million) to conduct the election.

In the 2020 state polls, unofficial results started trickling in during the evening, with full results released shortly before midnight.

This time, the Election Commission is expecting results to be out around midnight, depending on weather conditions. 

Thunderstorms expected on Saturday could hamper the delivery of ballot boxes to counting centres, commission chairman Ramlan Harun said on Friday.

“By 10pm, we’re expecting the first result (of a seat) to be out. We cannot predict accurately due to the weather conditions. But we will try to wrap everything up by midnight. We should have the final results around midnight,” he said, as reported by Sinar Harian.

The commission is targeting a final voter turnout of more than 60 per cent.

The 2020 Sabah election saw a final turnout of 66.61 per cent, Free Malaysia Today reported.

BUMPER CROP OF CANDIDATES

A record 596 candidates are vying for 73 seats, with all constituencies hosting multi-cornered fights, with four-way contests the minimum.

Tulid, a rural interior seat in Keningau, will see a 14-way battle. 

Opposition party Warisan is contesting every seat, while the incumbent Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition is fielding 55 candidates. 

Sabah-based parties contesting the polls include Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Malaysia (KDM), former GRS component party Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), and the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO), which was formerly aligned with Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.

STAR has 46 candidates, BN has 45, peninsula-based opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) has 42 candidates, and KDM has 40.

Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s PH alliance is fielding 22 candidates.

The election will also be contested by 74 independent candidates, part of what has been described as a Black Wave Movement aimed at challenging Sabah’s major political parties while offering a credible alternative. 

Analysts said GRS and Warisan are frontrunners, and CNA noted that each has deployed heavyweights to support its candidates in enemy territory.

Both parties “seem to be head to head” in the lead-up to polling day, said James Chin, Asian studies professor at the University of Tasmania.

But PH, BN as well as other Sabah-based parties and independent candidates are still expected to win a few seats, making a simple-majority victory for GRS or Warisan unlikely, analysts said.

KEY CAMPAIGN ISSUES 

The campaign has been dominated by long-standing issues of water supply, electricity and road infrastructure.

“The government’s failure to adequately resolve these issues has become a key point of attack for opposition parties, particularly against the GRS government led by Hajiji Noor,” said Arvin Tajari, a senior lecturer from Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Sabah.

Issues framed around “Sabah for Sabahans” and sentiments favouring local over national parties also featured prominently in this campaign, with some politicians calling for the state to be exclusively governed by local parties after decades of perceived neglect by the federal government.

“Sabah for Sabahans issues are really big this time. I would say it's even bigger than back in 2020 (during the last state election),” Chin said.

The issue became even more pronounced following the recent High Court ruling affirming Sabah’s entitlement to 40 per cent of federal revenue collected from the state, Arvin told CNA. 

The Kota Kinabalu High Court in October ruled that the Malaysian federal government had acted unlawfully by failing to fulfil Sabah’s right to 40 per cent of federal revenue derived from the state for nearly 50 years.

The court also ordered an agreement be reached on Sabah’s 40 per cent share of federal revenue for each financial year from 1974 to 2021, with the process to be completed within 180 days. 

Lee said that the Sabah for Sabahans sentiment could affect PH and make it more “complicated” for its component parties such as the Democratic Action Party (DAP) to improve on their performance from the last election.

At a campaign event in Kota Kinabalu on Thursday, Anwar said it is the strong relationship between Sabah and the federal government that has facilitated the state’s 40 per cent revenue discussions, emphasising that the decades-old issue was only addressed by his unity government. 

“As for the 40 per cent revenue return — we will implement it,” he said.

MINING CORRUPTION SCANDAL 

Corruption allegations linked to the GRS administration surfaced this week and heightened scrutiny of the federal government. 

Malaysia’s anti-graft agency on Wednesday said it would investigate a businessman’s allegations that he had given bribes to a senior aide of Anwar. This came shortly after the aide, senior political secretary Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin, announced his resignation.

Albert Tei, the businessman at the heart of a corruption scandal that first surfaced in 2024 involving mining projects in Sabah, claimed that he had channeled funds totalling RM629,000 (US$152,263) to Shamsul Iskandar.

Tei also claimed he was ordered by Anwar himself to record videos previously released last year, involving several Sabah politicians, including state ministers and assemblymen from GRS, concerning mineral exploration licences in Sabah. 

Analyst Bridget Welsh, from the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, told CNA that the latest allegations would “impact PH the most” and could “significantly” reduce its chances at the polls.

“The scandal has been impactful in the urban areas but not so much in the semi-rural areas. So, my expectation is that GRS will not be as badly impacted as PH,” she said.

Tei was on Friday arrested at his home by Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) officers. The MACC also detained Shamsul Iskandar and a woman said to have acted as Shamsul Iskandar’s proxy, its chief commissioner Azam Baki said.

WILL YOUTH VOTE BE CRUCIAL?

Youths are set to a key factor in determining the seat outcomes, with data from the Election Commission showing nearly 54 per cent or 960,000 voters are aged between 18 and 39. 

The implementation of Undi18 in 2021, which automatically registered citizens aged 18 and above as voters, expanded the electorate by 660,000, news outlet Astro Awani reported, making the Nov 29 election the first real gauge of youth voting trends in Sabah. 

Political parties, especially the opposition, have been actively using social media platforms to spotlight infrastructural shortcomings under the GRS-led government and young voters are increasingly aware of current issues directly affecting Sabah, analysts said. 

“This group of voters are no longer bound to traditional political loyalties; instead, they judge candidates based on integrity, accessibility and solutions to basic issues such as water supply, electricity and economic opportunities,” said senior lecturer at UiTM Ismail Rakibe, as reported by Astro Awani. 

Ismail also noted a social media analysis found that BN and GRS are dominating the digital narrative on platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels, with BN adopting a more aggressive strategy featuring young candidates, with nearly 80 per cent comprising fresh faces. 

WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN NEXT?

Sabah’s fragmented politics mean a hung state assembly is “almost certain”, likely forcing key parties to negotiate coalitions to form the next government, analysts said.

“Parties that I expect could form a coalition if no single party wins a simple majority include 1) an alliance between Warisan, UPKO and STAR, 2) GRS together with PH and BN, and 3) Warisan aligning with the Black Wave movement and PN,” said Arvin of UiTM.

Malaysian think tank Ilham Centre predicts that GRS could secure at least 26 seats, while Warisan is likely to win 14. 

Its report noted that although Warisan remained strong in the east coast, the party has not built enough momentum across the state. 

Ismail of UiTM told Astro Awani that surveys suggest BN and GRS are likely to win 18 seats each, followed by Warisan with 16, PH with 14, and PN with three. Smaller parties and independents could possibly secure four seats.

For this election, PH has separate pacts with GRS and BN, giving an indication of how a post-election coalition government might materialise.

With smaller local parties and independent candidates capable of clinching a few seats, they could be kingmakers in deciding who forms the next state government.

Warisan president Shafie Apdal has repeatedly said it will not collaborate with peninsula-based parties, expressing confidence in winning the 37 seats needed for a simple majority. However, he has reportedly left the door open for some post-election negotiation.

GRS leader Hajiji Noor has stressed that a strong working relationship between the state and federal governments is needed to ensure stability and smooth development in Sabah. 

The current Sabah state government is led by GRS, an alliance of several local parties, and the Anwar-led PH. The opposition comprises Warisan and BN.

BN left the coalition state government in 2023 when some of its members failed to topple incumbent chief minister Hajiji’s leadership in a political crisis known as the Kinabalu Move.

At the federal level, all these coalitions remain part of Anwar’s government.

An arguably lesser-known factor in who becomes Sabah’s next chief minister is the role of its governor Musa Aman, himself a former chief minister of the state. "Governor" is the term used for the head of state in the Borneo states.

In 2023, the Sabah state constitution was amended to allow the governor to appoint a chief minister who he thinks commands majority support among the state’s lawmakers, as opposed to an individual from the party with the most seats in the state assembly.

“In effect, Musa has ‘wide and unfettered’ discretion in appointing a chief minister,” Universiti Malaysia Sarawak political analyst Arnold Puyok wrote in a June 2025 commentary.

“He has the discretion to appoint any assembly member he believes commands the confidence of the majority, regardless of party affiliation or the number of seats a party holds.”