Nomura, Barclays cut China 2023 GDP forecasts as recovery sputters
Workers wield a minibus chassis frames at a factory during a media-organised tour in Shiyan city in central China's Hubei Province on May 10, 2023. (Photo: AP/Andy Wong)
BEIJING: Nomura has cut its forecast for China's 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.5 per cent from 5.9 per cent previously, after April data showed a post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy is losing steam.
Data on Tuesday showed China's April factory output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts, adding pressure on policymakers to shore up wobbly activity.
Nomura lowered its forecast for second-quarter GDP growth to 7.8 per cent year-on-year from 8.4 per cent, analysts at the bank said in a note.
The economy grew 4.5 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier. The government aims for 2023 growth of around 5 per cent.
Nomura expects China's central bank to cut its benchmark lending rate - loan prime rate (LPR) - by 10 basis points in mid-June.
"As China's economy moves out of the post-COVID sweet spot, Beijing may have to introduce other supportive measures, including adding transfers to local governments and SOEs (state-owned enterprises) via its policy banks," analysts at the investment bank said in a research note.
"However, unlike previous cycles, we see no easy fix this time around as, in our view, the real barrier to sustaining the growth recovery is a lack of confidence."
Barclays cut its forecast on 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.3 per cent from 5.6 per cent, analysts at the bank said in a note.
Barclays lowered its forecast for second-quarter GDP growth to 7.8 per cent year-on-year from 8.4 per cent due to weakening housing demand and consumption, analysts at the bank said in a note.
