US dollar sinks to three-week low on signs of slowing economy
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
NEW YORK :The dollar fell to a three-week low on Monday after data showed the U.S. economy is gradually slowing down with weaker-than-expected readings on manufacturing and construction spending, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is on track to start cutting interest rates later this year.
The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency's value against six major currencies, fell 0.4 per cent to 104.14. The index earlier dropped to 104.13, the lowest since mid-May.
The greenback also slid a two-week trough against the yen following the data and was last down 0.7 per cent at 156.22.
The euro gained 0.5 per cent versus the dollar to $1.0897 , after earlier rising to a three-week high of $1.0898.
Monday's data showed the U.S. Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing fell to 48.7 in May, from 49.2 in April, sliding as well from an 18-month high of 50.3 seen in March.
In a research note, BMO pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing sector shrank in 18 of the last 19 months.
Monday's ISM decline followed weakness in the Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and the Empire State manufacturing indexes.
U.S. construction spending also slid unexpectedly for a second consecutive month in April, decreasing by 0.1 per cent after a 0.2 per cent decline in March, amid falls in non-residential activity.
"Investors and markets are starting to believe that the U.S. exceptionalism theme is starting to wane," said Boris Kovacevic, global macro strategist at global payments company Convera in Vienna, Austria, referring to the world's largest economy's outperformance versus the rest of the world.
"It's not completely over but...but markets are now questioning how long the U.S. exceptionalism theme has to go," he added.
After the ISM and construction spending data, fed funds futures increased the chances of a rate cut in September to around 59.1 per cent, according to LSEG's rate probability app, compared with around 55 per cent late Friday. It was slightly below 50 per cent earlier last week.
The U.S. dollar posted its first monthly decline of the year in May, weighed down by shifting expectations on when the U.S. central bank will cut rates and by how much. The futures market is fully pricing in one rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) this year.
In the euro zone, however, the European Central Bank is holding a meeting on Thursday and is seen as almost certain to cut rates.
The comments from ECB officials will be in focus for traders along with economic projections as they assess whether the central bank will provide further cuts after Thursday in the wake of data showing a rise in euro zone inflation in May.
Markets are pricing in 57 bps of ECB cuts this year.
In other currencies, sterling rose 0.4 per cent against the dollar to $1.2799, boosted by the dollar's fall following the U.S. manufacturing data.
The pound pared gains a little after Nigel Farage, who helped lead Britain's departure from the European Union, said he would stand as a candidate in next month's election and will lead the right-wing Reform Party. This is widely seen as a major blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
In Mexico, the peso weakened on Monday after the ruling party declared Claudia Sheinbaum the winner of the presidential election by a "large margin" after polls closed on Sunday.
"The peso is underperforming amid seemingly growing concerns amongst investors that by securing supermajority in the lower house the governing coalition could be tempted to implement non-market-friendly policies," said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst, at In Touch Capital Markets.
The U.S. dollar was last up 4.1 per cent against the Mexican unit at 17.704 pesos, after earlier hitting its highest since around mid-April.
The Indian rupee, meanwhile, rose to a 2-1/2-month high versus the greenback and was last up 0.4 per cent at 83.08 per dollar as exit polls pointed to a sizable mandate and rare third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Currency       Â
bid
prices at
3 June​
07:03
p.m. GMT
Descripti RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD Pct High Low
on Close Change Bid Bid
Previous
Session
Dollar 104.11 104.58 -0.43 per cent 2.70 per cent 104.77 104.
index 12
Euro/Doll 1.0898 1.0847 0.47 per cent -1.27 per cent $1.0899 $1.0
ar 828
Dollar/Ye 156.22 157.225 -0.64 per cent 10.76 per cent 157.455 155.
n 95
Euro/Yen 1.0898​ 170.61 -0.22 per cent 9.39 per cent 170.89 169.
72
Dollar/Sw 0.8956 0.9026 -0.77 per cent 6.42 per cent 0.9035 0.89
iss 51
Sterling/ 1.2797 1.2743 0.44 per cent 0.58 per cent $1.2799 $1.0
Dollar 828​
Dollar/Ca 1.3641 1.3628 0.11 per cent 2.92 per cent 1.3668 1.36
nadian 04
Aussie/Do 0.6676 0.6653 0.36 per cent -2.07 per cent $0.6695 $0.6
llar 633
Euro/Swis 0.9758 0.9789 -0.32 per cent 5.08 per cent 0.9801 0.97
s 43
Euro/Ster 0.8514 0.8514 0.07 per cent -1.78 per cent 0.8535 0.85
ling 1
NZ 0.6178 0.6145 0.55 per cent -2.22 per cent $0.6189 0.61
Dollar/Do 35
llar
Dollar/No 10.467​ 10.4669 -0.14 per cent 3.27 per cent 10.5251 10.4
rway 625
Euro/Norw 11.408 11.3728 0.29 per cent 1.64 per cent 11.4165 11.3
ay 644
Dollar/Sw 10.4049 10.5143 -1.01 per cent 3.36 per cent 10.5351 10.4
eden 05
Euro/Swed 11.3392 11.4124 -0.64 per cent 1.92 per cent 11.4318 11.3
en 249
