Commentary: How to prevent 'Trump 2024' from happening
Even if Trump doesn’t present himself as a candidate, someone like him can and the only way to avoid that is to focus on how leaders communicate with Americans, says this observer.
NEW HAVEN, Connecticut: In his victory speech in November, US President-elect Joe Biden promised to reach across the aisle, work with Republicans, and unite the country.
Two months later, outgoing President Donald Trump still has not conceded, and some of his loyalists reportedly plan to vote against the counting of Electoral College votes this week.
The effort won’t prevent Biden from becoming inaugurated this month, but it does demonstrate just how polarised the US is – and the threat this poses to America’s very democracy.
To be sure, the US Constitution has proved hardy over the last four years. In the last few weeks alone, since the presidential election two months ago, Trump and his Republican allies have filed more than 50 lawsuits challenging the presidential election results.
READ: Commentary: Facebook’s eleventh-hour suspension of Trump’s account raises questions about its motives
But they have lost every single one. All of them, with even the Supreme Court – which Trump has packed with right-wing justices – ruling against them.
Nonetheless, while the US Constitution has succeeded at protecting American democracy, the lengths to which Trump loyalists have been willing to go to for him, together with the support he still enjoys among voters, raises serious questions about the state of American society.
After all, polarisation in America today is not fuelled by disagreement over, say, which tax policies would do the most good for Americans and their economy. Such debates are the lifeblood of democratic politics.
But they seem to have been abandoned in favor of disputes over reality itself – with deadly consequences.
SUPPORTERS OF AN ALTERNATE REALITY
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the COVID-19 pandemic. From the beginning, Trump played down the severity of the coronavirus, despite knowing better.
Moreover, he has repeatedly endorsed unproven treatments, while refusing to support the mandatory use of proven preventive measures, like mask wearing. Over 350,000 Americans have died.
Yet many of Trump’s supporters remain as loyal as ever. More than 74 million Americans voted for Trump in November, compared to 81 million for Biden.
And, though Trump and his allies have put forward no evidence of electoral fraud, only one-quarter of Republicans say they trust the results of the recent vote.
Yet this should not be particularly surprising. From asserting that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election “completely exonerated” him to claiming that water restrictions force people to flush their toilets 10-15 times instead of once, Trump’s go-to strategy throughout his political career has been simply to make things up.
Republicans have willingly echoed his lies, and conservative media have amplified and built upon them.
For the last four years, that job has fallen primarily to Fox News, Trump’s number one cheerleader and megaphone.
More recently, however, Trump has lashed out at the network, which he believes has been insufficiently loyal in its election coverage, and embraced even more extreme outlets, such as Newsmax and One American News Network.
Such media allies could pave the way for a resurgence of Trump’s political comeback. Trump has already discussed running for president again in 2024, and there is speculation about his daughter Ivanka Trump’s budding political ambitions.
But it doesn’t have to be a Trump who takes up the mantle of right-wing populism, nationalism, and authoritarianism in the US; a figure from outside the family could also emerge to fill this role, possibly much more deftly than Trump.
PREVENTING A POLITICAL COMEBACK
The best way to mitigate this risk is to close the cognitive gap that is distorting US political discourse, returning Americans to a shared reality. The question is how.
After all, plenty of existing media outlets – including legacy newspapers like The Washington Post and The New York Times, as well as mainstream American television networks like CNN – already provide fact-based, data-driven journalism. Many simply do not listen.
Instead, Trump and his supporters decry the “mainstream media” for pushing a “liberal agenda”, which includes, for example, recognising and exposing racial injustice and other forms of discrimination.
But this approach is hardly only as radical; on the contrary, it is in line with as fundamental democratic values. Indeed, such reporting has contributed significantly to American social progress, particularly after since the civil-rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s.
Clearly, however, this approach has its limits. A significant share of people – especially those who benefit from how biased systems are tilted – will resist social progress, regardless of how strong a case the media make for it.
READ: Commentary: Trump spent weeks insisting the election was stolen. No surprise his supporters took him seriously
And they will embrace political leaders and news sources that provide for them an alternate reality in which their position is rationalised, defended and shared.
This is hardly a uniquely American phenomenon. In Japan, progress toward gender equality has been slow, despite the obvious benefits of increasing female labour-force participation amid rapid aging.
Nearly eight years ago, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made policies aimed at reaping those benefits – dubbed “womenomics” – a pillar of his “Abenomics” strategy for economic revitalisation. But Japan still has a long way to go, owing largely to societal resistance.
Overcoming such resistance to progress – in the US, Japan, and elsewhere – will require not just information, but persuasion.
Communication must be painstaking, non-threatening, and people-oriented, aimed not at telling people where they are wrong, but at influencing them based on how they perceive the issue.
Biden cannot do this alone. It must be a bipartisan effort, led by America’s most senior political leadership. Fortunately, the latest COVID-19 relief package, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support despite Trump’s objections, offers reason for hope that this is possible.
Whether such compromises will continue into Biden’s presidency remains to be seen.
Republicans and Democrats will never agree on everything, as they shouldn’t: A vibrant democracy depends on spirited debate. But they should agree on empirical scientific facts.
Only if they are operating from the same reality then can they devise policies in good faith, find broadly beneficial compromises, and protect US democracy from would-be authoritarians eager to exploit Americans’ current cognitive divide.
Listen to Prof Chan Heng Chee and BowerGroupAsia Managing Director James Carouso explain how America came to be so deeply divided amid a bitterly fought election on CNA's Heart of the Matter podcast episode published in November 2020:
Koichi Hamada, Professor Emeritus at Yale University, was a special adviser to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.