Commentary: If Trump-Vance prevail in November, expect even more American isolationism
In choosing JD Vance as his running mate, former US president Donald Trump is going all in on framing the election as the opportunity to Make America Great Again (MAGA), says US politics expert Steven R Okun.
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SINGAPORE: In choosing Ohio Senator JD Vance, a converted acolyte as his running mate, former US president Donald Trump is going all in on framing the election as the opportunity to Make America Great Again (MAGA).
Mr Vance as the vice presidential nominee turns the excitement dial for his base up to 11. It re-enforces Trump’s ideology - anti trade, looking inward, domestic manufacturing over globalism, and a push for tougher immigration laws and large-scale deportation. It sets up a second Trump term just like the first, except more so.
But Mr Vance gives the Democrats loads with which to work to keep “double haters” on their side. Just a few years ago, Mr Vance described himself as a “Never Trumper”, saying he could not “stomach” Trump and thought him “unfit” for office, even going so far as to call him “America’s Hitler”. On Tuesday, Mr Vance called it “an honour” to run alongside Trump.
If Trump-Vance prevail in November, it means an increasing likelihood of American isolationism, levying tariffs across the globe, and an exodus of highly experienced US government officials.
Trump’s highly partisan, combative choice - when so many other options to him were available to expand his base and tone down the rhetoric - shows this race just might yet have a long way to go.
We know one thing for sure - the impact of the results will be global and profound.
THE VP SELECTION MENU
A presidential nominee chooses their running mate for two reasons: To help them win the election, and then if successful in the election, to help them govern.
In selecting Mr Vance, Trump chose a VP candidate who doubles down on the MAGA movement.
Unlike in 2016, when Trump selected Mike Pence to reassure the social conservatives and evangelicals that he was one of them, the former president fully controls his party.
Mr Bill Clinton selecting Mr Al Gore as his running mate serves as the Democratic model for Trump choosing Mr Vance, in which that combination strengthened Mr Clinton’s appeal of having a moderate running for president.
From an electoral college perspective, with President Joe Biden needing to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - the “Blue Wall” - to get a second term, Trump’s choice of a candidate from that part of the country might work, but Mr Vance doing so seems a reach. The independent voters Trump needs to reach in either of those states will likely not be swayed just because he chose a neighbour.
The pick counters the conventional wisdom and the urgings from traditional Republicans that the right electoral strategy would have been for Trump to choose someone who can balance MAGA.
Nikki Haley would have been his best choice from this perspective. If not her, his other two VP finalists, Governor Doug Burgum and Senator Marco Rubio, could have done so. Mr Vance will not make inroads with non-MAGA supporters not now aligned with him: Moderates, suburban, non-white, or female voters.
That said, if Trump wins Pennsylvania and Mr Vance helps him do so, the election ends early.
One benefit beyond the presidential race for Republicans could be increasing their odds of taking back control of the Senate. The Democrats cannot afford to lose a single race if they want to stay in the majority, including the one in Ohio.
As California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom points out, Trump's selection of Mr Vance makes the Democrats holding the Senate more difficult because it motivates Ohio Republicans to vote and means the race will attract even more outside spending trying to defeat Democratic-incumbent Sherrod Brown.
In addition, since Mr Vance will be parked in those blue wall states, it helps the Republicans in the senate races in Pennsylvania and Michigan, both seats held by Democrats.
Whether part of Trump’s calculus or not, he has increased the odds of Republicans winning the overall senate by choosing Vance.
Governments, investors, and businesses must take note, especially if this pick means the Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House. This will have massive implications on legislation impacting tariffs and clean energy as just a few examples.
WHERE VANCE STANDS ON KEY ISSUES
Democrats are already using Mr Vance’s own words and views against him.
The early Democratic attacks against him focus on how he supported a nationwide abortion ban and criticised exceptions for rape and incest, called Social Security and Medicare “the biggest roadblocks to real fiscal sanity”, and admitted that as VP he wouldn’t have certified the election results immediately on Jan 6, 2021.
With all this political baggage coupled with inexperience on the national stage, Mr Vance by no means ensures the election for Trump.
From a policy perspective, Mr Vance has been vocal in opposition to US aid for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
He has called for broad-based tariffs, especially on goods coming in from China because they pose an unfair threat to American jobs and commerce. His support for imposing new tariffs on China could make the reality of Trump’s 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods and 10 per cent globally even more likely.
In May, Mr Vance said in an interview that applying tariffs means “we’re going to penalise you for using slave labour in China and importing that stuff in the United States”, resulting in “making more stuff in America”. Most economists disagree, not that it matters.
On the home front, Mr Vance has expressed support for an overhaul of the civil service. This spreads trepidation across Washington, DC.
At the end of Trump’s first term, the former president tried to reclassify tens of thousands of federal employees in “policy-related” jobs into excepted service positions, thereby eliminating their civil service protections.
Vance supports this effort in a second Trump term.
“I think that what Trump should, like, if I was giving him one piece of advice, (is) fire every single mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state,” Vance said in 2021. “Replace them with our people.”
A Trump-Vance administration would likely be met by an exodus of some of the most experienced US public servants, diminishing the country’s ability to manage all the crises facing it, at home and abroad.
IN ONE WAY, VANCE DOES NOT MATTER – IN ANOTHER, HE MATTERS A LOT
Historically, a president running for re-election gets a second term only if voters think he has done a good job.
If this election is a referendum on President Biden’s first term, he will lose given his historically low approval rating, regardless of who Trump selected as his running mate.
If somehow the Biden campaign can make this election about whether Trump should once again be president, he has a chance to win.
The Biden-Harris campaign have a better chance to do that with Mr Vance - though it remains a very open question if they can do so.
Regardless, Trump’s selection of Mr Vance matters a great deal because he now joins Kamala Harris as being best positioned to be a future president of the United States.
Of the 47 presidents in US history, six former vice presidents have been elected president and another nine ascended to the office upon the death or resignation of the incumbent.
If Trump wins in November, Mr Vance becomes the heir apparent - and that really matters, especially if that means 12 more years of an America First president.
Steven R Okun is CEO of Singapore-headquartered APAC Advisors and Senior Adviser to geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates. He is a veteran of multiple US presidential campaigns and served in the Clinton administration as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation.
