JAKARTA: Indonesia's trade surplus likely narrowed in April, with exports and imports seen accelerating amid a steady global economic recovery and higher commodity prices, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
The median forecast of 13 analysts in the poll was for Southeast Asia's largest economy to post a US$1 billion trade surplus in April, down from US$1.56 billion surplus in the previous month.
Indonesia has consistently recorded trade surpluses since May 2020 as imports were affected by sluggish consumption and tepid manufacturing activities at home due to the COVID-19 crisis.
The poll forecasted that exports likely increased last month 41per cent on-year and imports up 29.81per cent, compared with March's growth rate in exports and imports of 30.47per cent and 25.73per cent, respectively.
"We had a low base last year due to lockdowns in many of our trading partners and in Indonesia ... For April this year, data showed economic recovery, greater demand from main export destinations and also local," Faisal Rachman, an economist at state lender Bank Mandiri, said, noting that both exports and imports dropped steeply last year.
Indonesia's statistics bureau will announce the data on Thursday.
(Polling by Tabita Diela, Fransiska Nangoy, and Nilufar Rizki; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)