Commentary: Have governments spent too much money to save economies?

Commentary: Have governments spent too much money to save economies?

As policymakers eye a possible recovery in 2021-2022, they must be vigilant about the side effects of prolonged monetary and fiscal stimulus, say William R Rhodes and Stuart PM Mackintosh.

FILE PHOTO: The U.S. Capitol dome is pictured ahead of a vote on the additional funding for the cor
FILE PHOTO: The U.S. Capitol dome is pictured in Washington, U.S., April 21, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Tom Brenner/File Photo)

NEW YORK:  Over the past year, rich-country governments and central banks have provided unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus to help mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Getting back to economic normalcy - whatever modified form that takes in 2021 and 2022 - will require advanced economies to start weaning themselves off official support before too long, and thereby avoid dangerous new complications.

On the monetary policy front, central banks around the world did whatever was necessary to calm financial markets when the pandemic struck in the spring of 2020.

READ: Commentary: Don’t expect the economy to rebound to pre-pandemic demand

They have since maintained a highly supportive stance, with historically low, and in some cases negative, real policy rates. Monetary policymakers reused and enlarged existing tools, and fashioned new ones as needed.

These crucial efforts have greatly inflated major central banks’ balance sheets.

IMPACT ON CENTRAL BANKS

In December 2020, the combined assets of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank of China stood at a staggering US$28.6 trillion.

The ECB accounted for US$8.5 trillion of this total, and the Fed US$7.3 trillion, while the BOJ and the PBOC had total assets of US$6.8 trillion and US$5.9 trillion, respectively.

Financial Markets Wall Street
Financial Markets Wall Street

Likewise, advanced economy governments have pursued historically aggressive fiscal policies, casting aside spending restraints to provide broad and largely indiscriminate support to many who needed and deserved it.

The Group of Thirty estimates that direct fiscal support for firms, employees, and the unemployed during the COVID-19 crisis now exceeds US$12 trillion globally. 

That assistance, supported by a broad political consensus, has prevented a great depression and widespread hardship.

TOO MUCH MONEY?

Many of these emergency measures were necessary and unavoidable. But as policymakers eye a possible recovery in 2021-2022, they must be vigilant about the side effects of prolonged monetary and fiscal stimulus. 

The United States and other rich countries face several risks as they try to rehabilitate and refashion their economies.

READ: Commentary: Growth alone is not enough to lift all boats

For starters, the current equity high could quickly turn into a nasty headache as policy stimulus fades. Equities have been on a tear, fuelled by huge liquidity flows and easy money, with yield-hungry investors piling into risk assets.

Moreover, markets implicitly understand that central banks currently stand behind most asset classes, elevating risk tolerance.

This helps to explain the recent run-up, wobbly retreat, and subsequent rebound for Bitcoin, and the social media-driven surge that squeezed hedge funds that had been short-selling the retailer GameStop.

A woman walks past a closed street market in Chiswick
FILE PHOTO: A woman walks past a closed street market as Britain continued its third COVID-19 lockdown in Chiswick, London, Britain on Feb 13, 2021. (Reuters/Kevin Coombs)

And the craze for special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), which raise capital through an initial public offering and then look for private firms to buy, continues unabated.

But it is doubtful that the current equity boom and search for yield can be sustained if policymakers withdraw monetary and fiscal stimulus. The resulting market correction may be sharp and painful, and many investors will pay a heavy price.

CAN IT BE REVERSED NOW?

A second risk relates to corporate pain. The extent of state support until now has kept business-closure and bankruptcy rates lower than normal in most advanced economies.

But as governments and central banks dial back support, as they must, the process of creative destruction will resume among small- and medium-size companies, and even some bigger firms.

Many struggling firms currently being kept afloat by government largesse will not be solvent and sustainable in the post-pandemic economy. Policymakers need to allow them to go bankrupt, be taken over, or close.

READ: Commentary: Companies and workers, forget life before COVID-19. Budget 2021 will help us prepare for life after it

Recognising this and allowing normal market processes to play out will hurt many companies and employees, and saddle banks with non-performing loans. But economies will have to stand the pain, because there is no alternative.

A third danger is that other sources of infection – which central bankers and supervisors may be ill-prepared to tackle – trigger a new economic contagion.

OTHER RISKS

For example, risks may come from the massive and growing shadow banking sector, which the Financial Stability Board estimates had financial assets in 2018 of US$50.9 trillion, equivalent to 13.6 per cent of the global total.

Other threats to economic stability abound, from cyberattacks and artificial-intelligence failures to bond-market stresses and sovereign-debt defaults.

As economies recover from the pandemic, central bankers and regulators cannot afford to discount emerging new risks in unsupervised financial markets and technologies, or relax their vigilance in supervised sectors. 

Lastly, there is the danger of relapse. If we fail to inoculate fully populations outside the core advanced economies against the coronavirus, we risk allowing unvaccinated groups to incubate new strains, leading to new COVID-19 surges. 

Vaccinating the world to avert this scenario would cost an estimated US$38 billion - a negligible price to pay for fostering a robust global economic recovery. 

READ: Commentary: Why is Asia slow to get vaccinated?

Rich countries must make the necessary funds available and stop hoarding vaccines.

Faced with these risks, policymakers in the advanced economies must be mindful of the side effects of their aggressive monetary and fiscal measures. 

Their task will be even harder if G20 governments - led by the US - fail to commit the modest resources needed to inoculate the world against COVID-19.

We simply cannot afford repeated relapses, pandemic surges, and economic standstills.

William R Rhodes, a former Chairman, CEO, and President of Citibank, is President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, LLC and author of Banker to the World: Leadership Lessons from the Front Lines of Global Finance. Stuart PM Mackintosh is Executive Director of the Group of Thirty.

Source: Project Syndicate/el

Bookmark