England have been tipped to win the World Cup in Qatar by Lloyd's of London based on a prediction model using players' collective insurable value as the commercial insurance market targets a hat-trick after picking the last two champions.
Lloyd's have predicted that Gareth Southgate's England side will beat Brazil in the final - with France, Argentina and Spain falling just short. The same model correctly identified Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018.
According to analysis backed by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which ranks the teams based on the collective insurable value of their players, England's squad will have an estimated insurable value of £3.17 billion (US$3.6 billion).
They edge out France (£2.66 billion) and Brazil (£2.56 billion) to claim top spot. Lloyd's said the assessment of insurable value comprises a variety of metrics like wages, sponsorship, age and on-field positions.
Using this methodology to play out the tournament in full, Lloyd's predicted that England - champions in 1966 - will finish top of Group B in Qatar and seal knockout wins over Senegal, France, Spain and then Brazil.
England midfielder Jude Bellingham was rated the most insurable player at the World Cup, followed by France striker Kylian Mbappe and Brazil forward Vinicius Jr.
Research also found that players aged between 18-24 have an average insurable value of £32 million compared to £12 million for players over 31.
Lloyd's said the research was designed to emphasise the need for athletes at all levels and in all sports to consider their insurance protection packages and coverage.
Southgate will name his final squad for the Nov 20-Dec 18 tournament later on Thursday. England's first game will be against Iran on Nov 21.