There's Biden and there's Trump. Who else wants to be US president?

Much has been made of the Democratic and Republican frontrunners for the United States presidential contest come November, with incumbent Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump hogging the headlines.

“The 2024 campaign will be won by the nominee from the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Absent any unforeseen realistic circumstance, that will be Joe Biden and Donald Trump, respectively,” said Mr Steven Okun, CEO of APAC Advisors and senior advisor to geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates.
 
“Still, who will win could potentially come down to something totally outside their control – whether a third-party candidate, or multiple ones, could change the outcome in a given state.”

Who are the independents?

Mr Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the millionaire nephew of late former president John F. Kennedy, is one of those mounting a challenge without the backing of a party.

Apart from being known for his family name, Mr Kennedy rose to prominence during the pandemic as an anti-vaccine activist.

When it comes to foreign policy, Mr Kennedy has warned that China wants to “bury” the US economically; and argued that Washington is responsible for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which he calls a US proxy war.

“There may be people who he brings out of the woodwork, naturally,” Mr Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told CNA.

Another independent in the running is progressive academic and activist Cornel West.

Then there is the No Label movement which is trying to put together a unity ticket for the White House, said Professor Todd Belt, director of political management at George Washington University.

“That is, a Republican running with a Democrat together. And they have a lot of money behind them to sponsor something like that. We don't know who they might pick,” he explained.

One name which has popped up for this middle-ground bipartisan ticket is centrist Democrat Joe Manchin, who sparked speculation when he announced he would not be seeking reelection to the Senate.

Do they stand a chance?

The idea of independence from big government and party agendas is a strong motivating force for some voters, in deciding who to throw their support behind.

Polls show a growing number of “double haters” or Americans disillusioned by both Mr Biden and Mr Trump.

With the duo having almost equally negative ratings, the contest is shaping up as “the election most Americans do not want”, said Mr Okun.

Still, independent candidates face an uphill task. No such individual has ever won a modern US presidential election.

Running a successful campaign for the White House also requires both brand recognition and a significant amount of money.

And they need to get on the ballot in every state across the country, an effort which requires up to hundreds of thousands of signatures from supporters.

Even if they manage that, they then need to convince tens of millions of people to vote for them, up against the massive party machineries of the Republicans and Democrats.

Some surveys have suggested that Mr Kennedy could capture as much as 20 per cent of the electorate, but what people tell pollsters and how they actually vote at the ballot box can often differ.

“At the end of the day you’d expect most people to come home to one party or the other because they’re going to feel like ... ‘I’m voting for someone that can actually win’,” Mr Kondik said.

“I don’t think you can look at any of the third-party candidates and say they have a path to victory.”

Mr Okun said that while no third-party candidate has any chance - realistic or otherwise - of winning the 2024 contest, they could secure enough votes to change the result in a specific state.

This could then have an impact on who will win the White House, given how close the race is expected to be.

“For example, in 2016, Jill Stein, running as the Green Party candidate, won more votes than the margin in which Trump beat Clinton in Wisconsin,” he explained, referring to former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton losing to Mr Trump in the election that year.

"Presumably, these votes would have gone to Hillary had Stein not run.”

The same thing happened back in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost to his Republican competitor George W Bush, noted Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore’s political science department.

In a close race, independents are more likely to cost Democrats in battleground states, rather than Republicans, as their political stances are generally closer in position to the Democrats, he added. 

In 2024, the state to watch is Michigan, which has a large Arab-American population, said Mr Okun, who served in the Bill Clinton administration and has advised numerous US presidential campaigns.

“Cornel West has come (out) very strongly against the Biden Administration’s policies regarding Israel, Palestine and Hamas; and (his) campaign could take away enough votes from Biden to give the state to Trump,” he noted.

Mr West also opposes US military assistance for Ukraine, and has said he would “sit down” with China to try and end their rivalry.

Who are the other Republicans hopefuls?

In light of the possibility that Mr Trump’s legal headaches rule him out of the contest, other names are eyeing the Republican nomination and a run at the top job.

“The chances are slim and none for anyone dislodging Donald Trump from the Republican nomination, with the one exception: Let's say he gets convicted of some serious felonies and is sentenced to prison, although he won't be sitting in prison for some time because of appeals," American University’s distinguished professor of history Allan Lichtman explained.

"Then it's conceivable the convention might say we don't want a convicted felon.”

Someone whom observers say does have a possible path to victory - albeit a narrow one - is former South Carolina governor and US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Once overlooked by her competitors, Ms Haley’s star has been rising within the Republican camp, ever since she announced her candidacy in February 2023.

Strong debate performances and endorsements from major conservative donors have helped propel her up the polls, with political strategists suggesting a chance for her to close the gap to runaway favourite Trump.

“She is a gifted politician," North Star Opinion Research founder and president Whit Ayres told CNA. "She's very good on her feet. She's very disciplined. She can counterpunch very, very well.”

Leading up to the 2024 Republican presidential primary, Ms Haley - who is Indian American - is fast gaining on Florida governor Ron DeSantis in Iowa, the first state to vote. And she has the advantage in New Hampshire, a crucial primary battleground.

Once viewed as a Trump alternative, Mr DeSantis' message has not cut through to voters, leading to strong early poll numbers dwindling.

“He tries to mimic Donald Trump, like with his cultural warfare, and it just doesn't work. It seems scripted, false (and) phony,” said Prof Lichtman.

“What does he have to offer that Trump isn't already offering? In a sense, he's kind of Trump-lite, and why should anyone go for Trump-lite when you can vote for the real thing?”

What about Biden and the Democratic nomination?

At 81 years old, Oval Office incumbent Biden is already the oldest president in US history. 

Concerns over his health may open the door for another Democrat nominee.

Among the lot is California governor Gavin Newsom, whom observers say is already running a shadow campaign.

In October last year, Mr Newsom met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to discuss cooperation on climate change and the fentanyl crisis.

"He's auditioning for the job. I mean, he's doing things that governors don't do, like going on foreign trips. He's met with the leaders of China and many other countries. He's positioned himself globally on climate issues, which many governors aren't doing,” Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio said.

Mr Newsom has also shown a willingness to trade punches with Republicans, such as debating with Mr DeSantis last November.

"He's fought Republicans with in-your-face tactics all across the country and many places that Democrats don't even go. He wants to be in the face of Republicans and put them on their heels in the way they put Democrats on their heels for many years,” Mr Maviglio said.

This includes confronting the Republicans on freedom and liberty, abortion rights and other issues popular with the American public, he added.

But political science professor David Mcuan from Sonoma State University noted that whether Americans would embrace Mr Newsom as leader of the country remains a question mark.

For the past five years, he has been in charge of California, the US state with the most people and the largest economy by far.

But taking that act to an even bigger stage is not without its challenges.

For one, his home state is often used by Republicans to highlight what they call failed left-wing policies, resulting in issues like homelessness and crime.

"So if you're on the other side, if you're on Fox News or on the Republican side (or) the Trump side, you're licking your chops to take this guy on because you think that the visuals of what's going on in San Francisco or what's going on in Los Angeles or Los Angeles County, you can use that as important kind of motivators to block this governor,” said Prof Mcuan.

What will the contest come down to?

Whether Mr Biden gets re-elected depends on whether the American people approve of his job done and want to extend his time in office, said Mr Okun.

“If the US economy continues to improve over the coming quarters and they give the Biden administration credit for doing so, he has strong chances of winning in November,” he said.

But if that doesn't happen and the voters instead focus on immigration issues, then Mr Biden will likely lose, said Mr Okun.

He added that Mr Biden will also triumph if voter focus is directed to Mr Trump's anti-democratic actions.
 
“For this election, it comes down to which of the two campaigns best frame the narrative,” said Mr Okun.

Assoc Prof Chong said the upcoming presidential and congressional races are likely to be about ensuring that the US middle class gets an equitable share of economic growth.

Still, this could also turn to anger towards ruling elites, as seen in continued support for Mr Trump.

“Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict could affect his support among younger voters," said Assoc Prof Chong.

"But turnout rates among younger voters tend to be low and foreign policy issues generally get overshadowed by domestic issues unless there is some crisis."