'He didn't have much of a choice': What made Biden exit the US presidential race?

United States President Joe Biden had little choice but to end his re-election bid as he was losing the support of party elites and donors, and it was tough to plot a way ahead, said political observers. 

The 81-year-old dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday (Jul 21) amid concerns within his own Democratic Party over his age and mental fitness. 

Biden, who will remain in the presidency until his term ends on Jan 20 next year, has since endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the party's candidate in the November presidential race.

“The Democrats are heaving more than a sigh of relief,” said Steven Okun, founder and CEO of Singapore-based public affairs consultancy APAC Advisors.

“They are thrilled that President Biden made the decision to put the country over his own self-interest, to put the interest of the party over his own self-interest, and to move forward with a better candidate.”

FALTERING DEBATE SHOWING, EMBARRASSING GAFFES

Biden’s exit came after a shaky Jun 27 debate performance against Republican rival Donald Trump, where he struggled to express himself clearly, stumbled over words, and occasionally lost his train of thought. 

Embarrassing gaffes, including mistakenly introducing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at a NATO summit earlier this month, also raised questions over whether he is fit to serve for another four years. 

Biden, the oldest person ever to have occupied the Oval Office, “very well could have believed that he was not capable of doing another four years”, Okun told CNA938. 

“Fundraising had dried up. His poll numbers were going down. Elected officials thought that they were at risk.”

Some lawmakers feared he could cost them not only the White House, but also the chance to control either chamber of Congress next year.

“I think what caused him to exit the race really is the pressure that he was getting both from party donors and from party elites,” said political scientist Daniel Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University. 

“We even had the former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi saying that he should step aside, and it's very difficult for him to plot a way forward in the election if he didn't have support of those party elites and especially of big party donors,” Cassino added.

With Biden fundraisers on hold, it was not clear he could move forward at all, he told CNA’s Asia First. 

The analyst further noted that doubts among the public, along with Biden being largely tied with Trump in polls, left the president with not much of a choice.

“I imagine what happened was he came to the conclusion that the most important thing was to keep Donald Trump out of office as far as he was concerned, and that someone else, presumably Vice President Harris, would be more capable of doing that.”

Earlier opinion polls showed widespread dissatisfaction among Americans over a Biden-Trump rematch.

As for the Democrats, Cassino pointed out that they were “really just disenchanted”. 

“They didn't think Joe Biden was a great candidate but they felt trapped:  ‘We don't like either of these candidates, what am I supposed to do?’”

Biden’s exit now gives the Democrats a chance to field a candidate whom people are “actually excited about” and interested in supporting, Cassino added.

WILL HARRIS BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? 

Despite Biden's backing, Harris' nomination is not a given. Delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August still have to choose their candidate.

If Harris eventually emerges as the nominee, she would become the first Black woman to run to lead a major-party ticket in US history. 

“She is going to bring much more energy to the ticket than he could have,” said Okun, though he questioned whether Harris would even become the nominee.

“President Biden (endorsing her) does not mean the nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates who will make the decision at the convention have to nominate her.”

Harris' campaign officials, allies and supporters have started making calls to secure the support of delegates for her nomination ahead of the party’s convention, sources said.

This comes as there are calls for an open nomination process. 

“There're a lot of people in the country who just want to see one happen, and they're very excited about the prospect of an open convention,” said Cassino. 

“So the upside would be that it would be a spectacle; that you'd have people really paying attention to Democrats; that all the potential candidates would have the chance to make their case to the party, and the best candidate would win.”

Experts believe Harris’ next step would be to prevent anyone else from jumping in the fray. 

“I think Kamala Harris actually put herself in a very good position by getting out so quickly with all these endorsements immediately. She's going to try and cement this by putting out fundraising numbers,” said Cassino. 

“If somebody else jumps in … then you're going to see the floodgates open. You're going to see a whole bunch of other candidates jumping in and potentially challenging her at the convention.

“I think at this point the dynamics are towards coordination, but that could certainly change.”

HARRIS REMAINS THE FAVOURITE

Political watchers noted that Harris remains the favourite to be the party’s replacement, with many Democrats not ready to have several candidates fight it out a month before the convention. 

They noted that the 59-year-old has already been on a winning presidential ticket with Biden in 2020. That gives her an edge over other potential replacements, who would have to work fast to galvanise support. 

“She is without question the odds-on favourite, in large part because she is a sitting vice president, in part because financially it's easier to transfer the money the Democrats already have from a Biden-Harris ticket to a Harris-whoever ticket,” said Okun.

“She has run nationally as vice president, so the odds are lining up with her certainly to be the nominee. But it's not a done deal quite yet.”

As the vice president, she can seamlessly begin using Biden's huge campaign finances as well.

Biden's campaign had US$95 million on hand at the end of June. The funds could easily be transferred to Harris, but not to any other candidate, said observers.

Cassino called this a “huge deal”, noting that it would be difficult for anyone else to match that.

As a Black and Asian-American woman, Harris would also be able to better appeal to African-Americans, who are the Democrats' largest and most loyal bloc of supporters. 

The Democrats have been “facing real fears” that these supporters seem to have been dropping in their support for Biden,” said Cassino.

“Putting a Black woman at the top of the ticket seems like it might get that support back. If they had lost that support, the race would've been over.”

But Harris, like Biden, has struggled with low approval ratings throughout the last four years.

“She might be saddled with many of the things people didn't like about the Biden administration,” said Cassino. 

“We also know that last time the Democrats nominated a woman for president, Hillary Clinton, it did not go well. There were concerns. A lot of people in the country just weren't ready to vote for a woman for president.”

“HARRIS WILL BE EASIER TO DEFEAT THAN BIDEN”: TRUMP

On who could be Harris’ running mate if she is chosen, Okun suggested Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who are both from swing states that the Democrats need to win.

“Both can appeal to moderates. Both can appeal to independent suburban women, probably more or in a different way than vice president (Harris) can,” he added.

“So they balance the ticket. Those two make the most sense politically and electorally, and so we'll see if that remains the case.”

On Sunday, shortly after Biden stepped aside as his party’s candidate, Trump told CNN that “Harris will be easier to beat than Joe Biden would have been”.

The 78-year-old will be heading into the White House contest with one-time critic JD Vance, a 39-year-old senator from Ohio, as his vice presidential running mate. 

Okun said if the November election is a referendum on the Biden-Harris administration, then the Democrats are likely to lose. 

“President Biden's approval rating is historically low, and it is very hard to overcome that when you run as an incumbent,” he added. 

“However, they are running against somebody who is also very unpopular, whom most Americans don't want to be the president either.” 

If the Democrats can “shift the narrative away from a referendum on Biden's first term to a referendum on Trump”, they could win the presidency, said Okun. 

Analysts stressed that the outcome of this election will change how the country tackles various pressing issues, from high inflation to geopolitical tensions. 

“Americans are worried, and I don't think they're convinced that either party is the be-all and end-all for all of those issues,” said Okun. 

“And that's why this is going to be a campaign that goes down to the wire.”