Get ready for a digital shakeup and 4 big shifts in work and society
The digital economy is loosely defined as the production and consumption of digital products and services. It materialises in several ways, some possibly contradictory. High-value innovations occur not just within services or platforms, but across them.
Rapid technological change means that businesses and workers have to constantly adapt. Lifestyles are similarly evolving to reap the benefits (or suffer the consequences) of technology. The conveniences of the digital economy also bring security issues and new forms of crime.
Several institutions are already feeling these effects; regulators and incumbents have had to keep up with new challenges such as private-hire cars and shared bike platforms.
Consumer habits have also shifted due to the pervasiveness of food delivery services, opening up new business opportunities.
Platform giants, states and multilateral institutions have been rethinking responsibilities in counter-terrorism efforts, content regulation and the protection of personal data. The rise and evolution of the digital economy will undoubtedly continue to shape the global operating context and will present new complexities as our social and geopolitical landscapes evolve.
There are four big shifts for society and work arising from the digital economy which could fundamentally change the way we think about institutions today.
These shifts are not predictions, but plausible futures set in the 10 to 15-year time horizon, and are meant to be conversation starters around current-day strategies.
SHIFT #1: REPLACE → CO-BOT
It has been suggested that the most value to be extracted in applying technology to work is through human collaboration with robots or artificial intelligence (AI), rather than removing humans from the equation altogether.
Digital healthcare start-up Babylon Health recently made news when its AI doctor performed better at a diagnostics examination taken by trainee general practitioners with an average pass rate of 72 per cent. Babylon AI scored 82 per cent.
This does not mean doctors are out of a job — there is still a need to account for ethical responsibility and the complexity of a patient’s history and environment, which would mean that a doctor’s main value-add would shift to treatment rather than diagnosis.
In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue famously beat chess champion Gary Kasparov. Fast forward to 2005, when an online chess tournament sought to test if humans and AI could make a better team than AI alone. True enough, the augmented human player beat the solo computer. The kicker? The augmented players were not champions, but amateurs.
Humans and machines need each other to perform optimally. How do we extract that value to maximise outcomes? What applications could there be beyond work?
SHIFT #2: LIVE TO WORK → WORK TO LIVE?
Much has been said about millennials and their work ethic. Stereotypes aside, the difference between current youth aspirations and those of preceding generations is big enough to present legitimate concerns.
A recent Deloitte study of millennials revealed surprising statistics: 44 per cent turned down a job because the company’s values did not match their own and 56 per cent swore never to work for any company whose values did not match theirs. In Singapore, youth have also said they prize happiness over many other things, wealth among them.
The rise of a seemingly new “Generation Z” points to even more uncertainty in the hopes and fears of the largest cohort entering the workforce today, as studies find them potentially more fiscally conservative and capitalising on the gig economy at a much earlier stage in their lives.
They also grew up in an age constantly confronted by global economic and political uncertainty and against a backdrop of climate change, radicalisation and other global threats. In such a climate, it is no wonder youth of today might seek a “yolo” or “you only live once” life rather than a wealthy one.
Can jobs in the digital economy still keep the youth of today happy, or will there be a push towards working to seek greater meaning in life? Even if jobs cannot fulfil the needs and aspirations of youth, might there be other ways for them to achieve personal fulfilment?
SHIFT #3: LIVE LONG AND PROSPER → AGE IS JUST A NUMBER
Could the digital economy solve the existential challenge posed by ageing populations?
We are living longer. Global life expectancy has grown significantly in the past decade — Singapore is expected to have the third-highest life expectancy in the world come 2030, ahead of longevity champions Japan.
In addition, developments across a range of human augmentation technologies combined with cheap production and distribution could mean a new era for humanity. For example, there is evidence that metformin, a common and cheap diabetic drug, has significant anti-ageing properties.
In mice, metformin has increased lifespans by 40 per cent. The demand for nootropics, or supplements that enhance or help manage cognitive abilities, is also increasing.
They are now more readily available and normalised thanks to e-commerce and clever online marketing. Exoskeletons are also getting cheaper and have the potential to give new life to the elderly and the disabled.
All Nippon Airways has been experimenting with exoskeletons made by robotics company Cyberdyne for their staff, which includes older workers, to be able to handle large suitcases better.
Some controversial quarters claim that we are closer to achieving immortality for humanity through a variety of possible methods ranging from rejuvenation technologies to brain uploading.
While immortality might be beyond the realm of plausibility for many, extensive longevity might not. If we get basic research into anti-ageing drugs right, keep distribution channels pervasive and drive down the cost of exoskeletons, might we have a solution to stay productive even as we age?
What are some obstacles to harnessing such technology? Would augmented humans be subject to special rules and codes of ethics? What extent of augmentation would be acceptable?
Beyond life in fragile, mortal shells, we humans might also have to contemplate our digital lives that now exist on multiple platforms across social media and other sharing services. How might an archivist of the future consider the cultural history of humanity given our multiple lives, avatars, and contributions to our digital world?
SHIFT #4: LEARN TO WORK → WORK IS LEARNING
Disruptions experienced in the last decade have had people concluding that many skills of tomorrow are not the skills we know of today.
A 2016 report by the World Economic Forum found that by 2026, most jobs across all types of occupations will on average have more than one third of the core skills needed to perform them coming from a group of skills currently not yet considered crucial.
Many also recognise that soft skills like collaboration, networking and creativity will be critical for success. If we do not know what skills are needed in the future, why front-load all our education in the prime of our productivity only to learn skills that are not really useful for work?
Stanford’s Design School recognised this and proposed a concept called the Open Loop University. Students learn at their own pace and can alternate between learning and work as needed.
They enrol for six years, which can be spread across their lives, and do not even need to wait to turn 18 before matriculating.
Of course, schools are not just for learning “hard” skills. Should we maximise schools for other outcomes such as building social skills, common identities, values and ethics? How would the roles of the employer and the work environment evolve to complement these “soft” skills?
Multilevel and cross-sector discussions on such plausible futures could unearth latent assumptions, hopes and fears that need to be addressed today in order for us to better reap the benefits of the digital economy.
Pervasive and consistent efforts to change mind-sets, reward innovation and implement improvements to work processes will help organisations and their people be prepared for surprises that the digital economy will bring.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Liana Tang is Deputy Head of the Centre for Strategic Futures. It serves as a focal point for futures thinking within the Singapore Government. This piece was recently published in the centre's biennial publication Foresight, which covers research into international megatrends and emerging issues.
