US dollar mixed after inflation report supports smaller Fed rate cut
NEW YORK: The US dollar was mixed overall on Wednesday (Sep 11) in choppy trading after data showed underlying inflation in the world's largest economy rose in August, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely implement a smaller 25-basis-point interest rate cut option next week.
The greenback posted gains against the Swiss franc, sterling, and yen, but slipped against the euro, nudging the dollar index, a measure of the US unit's worth against six major currencies, 0.01 per cent lower on the day to 101.63.
Earlier in the session, the dollar came under pressure as investors raised the chances that Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris would beat Republican rival Donald Trump in the Nov 5 US presidential election in the wake of a televised debate between the two candidates on Tuesday.
Data showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.2 per cent last month, matching the advance in July. In the 12 months through August, the CPI advanced 2.5 per cent, the smallest year-on-year rise since February 2021 and down from a 2.9 per cent increase in July.
But excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.3 per cent in August after rising 0.2 per cent in July.
"The immediate takeaway is that this dramatically reduces the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut" next week, said Ben McMillan, a principal and the chief investment officer at IDX Insights in Tampa, Florida.
"That wasn't unexpected because I thought the market was pretty aggressive at pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut in September anyway. This reaffirms what the Fed is really focused on - the jobs numbers. This makes the jobs numbers, and the revisions to those numbers, even more important."
The "super core" reading, which is core services excluding housing, rose 0.3 per cent for the month, which Jefferies said was the "biggest sequential increase" since April. This brings the three-month annualized rate to 1.95 per cent from 0.45 per cent in the previous three months. This three-month figure rose as high as 4.18 per cent in May and 8.16 per cent in March, according to a Jefferies investor note.
Given the inflation data and with the Fed more likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, the U.S. dollar will possibly rebound in September before losing ground later this year and into 2025, said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.
"The fact that we think that the Fed will only cut 25 bps rather than 50 bps, risk sentiment looks a bit defensive and in September, we think the dollar can have a bit of a corrective bounce. Then it starts weakening again into the end of the year and then in 2025," he said.
DOLLAR UP VERSUS FRANC, POUND
In afternoon trading, the dollar was up 0.54 per cent against the Swiss franc at 0.85155 franc, after hitting a three-week high of 0.8544 following the inflation report.
Sterling fell 0.27 per cent against the dollar to $1.3044. The pound was also weighed down earlier by data showing the UK economy stagnated unexpectedly in July. The report, however, did little to shift expectations for the Bank of England to lower interest rates next week.
The dollar hit the day's high of 142.55 yen following the CPI numbers, before sliding 0.16 per cent to 142.23. The yen got an extra boost earlier when Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reiterated that the central bank would keep raising rates if the economy and inflation justified it.
The dollar earlier in the Asia session fell to 140.71 yen, its lowest level since late December.
The rate futures market has currently priced in just a 13 per cent chance of a 50-basis-point easing by the Fed at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, down from about 33 per cent late on Tuesday, LSEG calculations showed. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week stood at 87 per cent, the data showed.
The market still factored in more than 100 basis points in cuts this year.
In the political arena, Harris put Trump on the defensive in a combative debate, with attacks on abortion restrictions, the Republican former president's fitness for office and his myriad legal problems.
She also received a boost from pop megastar Taylor Swift, who told her 283 million Instagram followers that she would back Harris and running mate Tim Walz in the election.
Following the debate, online betting site PredictIt showed Harris' chances of winning had improved by 3 cents to 56 cents for a US$1 payout, while Trump's chances dropped 5 cents to 47 cents.
Investors broadly see the dollar strengthening in the event of a victory by Trump, as his proposed import tariffs might prop up the currency and higher fiscal spending could boost interest rates.
