Najib’s Syariah Bill U-turn: A fight for survival?
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak’s U-turn last week over his support for the controversial Syariah Bill signalled his opening gambit in Malaysia’s high drama of political survival ahead of the coming general election.
Initiated by the opposition Islamist Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), the Bill to upgrade Syariah punishments was supposed to be supported by his ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.
Mr Najib himself had said just four months ago that it was the responsibility of Muslims to support PAS’ move, which many believe to be part of the party’s broader push to implement hudud — or Islamic criminal law — in Kelantan.
Mr Najib’s about-turn has entrapped PAS.
But it also shows that the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) president wants, at all cost, a decisive victory in the 14th general election (GE14) that he must call by 2018, though widely expected sometime this year.
His next move is to clear the decks with state-level elections in Sabah, which together with Sarawak, constitute two crucial “fixed deposit” vote-bank states in East Malaysia.
Sabah’s elections could be called as soon as next month, before the annual Muslim fasting month starts.
Mr Najib’s U-turn over the Syariah Bill shows that he would rather lose PAS than lose Sabah, which has fiercely anti-hudud voters, so as to remain in power.
His way out: Dump PAS, even though he has been courting it from the opposition, by using the non-support of the Bill by BN’s non-Muslim allies as a cover.
To be sure, the allies have virtually outflanked Umno with a combined threat to leave BN over the Syariah Bill. This development has several ramifications.
WHO PAYS THE PRICE?
The first and most immediate casualty of Mr Najib’s manoeuvre is the credibility of PAS’ president Abdul Hadi Awang, the party’s champion of the Syariah Bill.
Mr Hadi’s presidency could come under serious pressure now that his push for a reconciliation with Umno has backfired. His doggedness over hudud has split PAS, leading to a breakaway party called Amanah.
It has even led to the break-up of the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat, though it has since re-emerged as a reconfigured Pakatan Harapan (PH).
While the new Pakatan is now without PAS, it has gained the entry of two breakaways — first Amanah and now the Umno breakaway Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu for short) led by former premier Mahathir Mohamad.
Underlying this political flux is the more significant reconciliation between Dr Mahathir and his former protege Anwar Ibrahim.
Mr Najib’s about-turn over the Syariah Bill is seen by PAS as an act of treachery and a second betrayal by Umno following PAS’ ouster from BN in 1977.
But this is hardly surprising to many who see it as totally in character with Umno’s politics.
This slap in the face for Mr Hadi comes as PAS is preparing for its party election in late April.
The coming PAS Muktamar or general assembly has suddenly taken on added importance and could plant the seeds of rising opposition to Mr Hadi’s leadership.
A former PAS leader Husam Musa has called on Mr Hadi and the entire PAS leadership to step down over the Syariah Bill debacle.
The second impact of Mr Najib’s U-turn could be on Umno’s internal politics.
His move could unwittingly put pressure on the position of Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi, who has been a strong supporter of the to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act — better known as Act 355. It was Mr Zahid who announced that the Bill would be taken up by the government in parliament, thus confirming official support for its passage.
Mr Najib’s turn-around on Act 355 could undermine his deputy’s position, especially in the multi-ethnic BN ruling coalition.
The net effect is that Mr Zahid’s potential as a challenger to Mr Najib could also be weakened, although the deputy premier is likely to continue demonstrating his loyalty to Mr Najib.
POWER STRUGGLE
Over the past 18 months, Mr Najib has weathered immense political pressure over alleged wrongdoing related to state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).
He has emerged stronger by getting rid of detractors, though it remains unclear whether the saga will leave him unscathed at the polls.
The coming GE14 will decide not only the direction of the country, but also whether Mr Najib remains as Umno leader and, therefore, Prime Minister.
Against this backdrop, two political coalitions are competing for survival. The opposition PH is badly split, primarily due to differences with PAS.
But it has been racing to rebuild itself, with Dr Mahathir emerging as a new power-broker in the opposition, ironically in support of Anwar, whom he sacked from Cabinet in 1998.
The opposition in Sabah is in disarray due to defections, which is why state elections could be called soon by BN to take advantage of the situation. A thumping victory would boost Mr Najib’s confidence and set the tone for GE14.
The Umno-led BN, on the other hand, appears intact but it is in reality struggling to stay cohesive and afloat.
Sarawak, a king-maker in BN in terms of the sizeable number of its parliamentary seats, has already made clear it does not support the Syariah Bill because of its multi-ethnic and multi-religious population.
This has emboldened virtually all the other non-Muslim parties in BN, especially the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC).
Indeed, Sarawak and Sabah, as key vote banks, could emerge in future as the frontline states that will that will slow down the Islamisation trend in Peninsular Malaysia.
In the aftermath of Mr Najib’s U-turn, the MIC came out to declare that BN’s consensus principle has prevailed — a code word to suggest that Umno has bowed to the voice of the combined majority of the non-Muslim parties. He let it be known that the non-Umno members of BN, including “all Sabah/Sarawak parties” had stood firm in opposing the Syariah amendment Bill.
What the Syariah Bill has done is to rally BN’s non-Muslim allies in common opposition to Umno.
They have flexed their bargaining power by openly threatening to quit BN; they have warned Mr Najib of a break-up of the ruling coalition ahead of the coming general election.
Mr Najib cannot risk that scenario because he knows BN will lose at the polls and he will have to go — leaving the country to a rekindled and reunified opposition coalition led perhaps jointly by Anwar and Dr Mahathir, in a new era of political fluidity and shifting allegiances, marked by uncertainty and unpredictability.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Yang Razali Kassim is a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
