President Prabowo’s coalition set to win big in Indonesia’s regional elections; Jakarta could see run-off next year

JAKARTA: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and parties from his Advance Indonesia Coalition (KIM Plus) are on track for a resounding win in the country’s first simultaneous regional elections on Wednesday (Nov 27), though it’s a different picture in capital Jakarta.

An outcome of the ruling coalition sweeping key battlegrounds but losing in Jakarta signals Mr Prabowo’s strong influence in most of the archipelago, and the waning of his rival’s – Mdm Megawati Soekarnoputri, who’s chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Indonesia’s former president.

According to “quick counts” by various pollsters, KIM Plus’ candidates look set to sweep the key battleground provinces of West Java, Central Java, East Java and North Sumatra.

The gubernatorial three-horse race in the capital Jakarta is still uncertain though the PDI-P’s Mr Pramono Anung is leading, with various quick counts showing he has just under, or over, 50 per cent of the vote. 

Jakarta is the only province for which the race will head into a run-off early next year, if no candidate secures over half the vote.

KIM Plus’ Jakarta candidate Ridwan Kamil is behind with nearly 40 per cent of the vote, while independent candidate Dharma Pongrekun has secured about 10 per cent. 

“From the results of the exit polls and quick counts, which are at about 85 per cent, they show that we are ahead in various regions in Jakarta, almost in all areas,” said Mr Pramono, 61, in Jakarta on Wednesday afternoon.

“Quick counts show that the margin of error is plus or minus 1 per cent. So whether this goes into one round or two, we will be able to find out tonight,” he said.

“We will wait for the real count results, hopefully we can get it soon.”

His rival Mr Ridwan, 53, said: "We have seen the quick count results, the majority (of results show the race may not be over in) one round.”

"We will wait for the quick count results and also from the Jakarta election commission,” he said. 

Indonesians took to polling stations to elect 37 governors, 93 mayors and 415 regents from 7am to 1pm local time on Wednesday.

The results so far attest to the influence of Mr Prabowo and his predecessor Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, who have endorsed their preferred candidates in several provinces ahead of polling day.

For the PDI-P, the country’s largest party in parliament and the only major party that has not joined Mr Prabowo’s coalition, the results reflect the challenge it faces to regain public support and relevance, including in provinces like Central Java that were considered its strongholds, said an analyst.

“Today's regional elections are very important because they are a political test to see whether the national coalition can also succeed in the regions and, conversely, whether the opposition camp can win the regions for political bargaining,” Mr Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst with Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) told CNA.

“For Prabowo, the election results certainly impact how his programmes or policies will be implemented under one command,” he added. The programmes include free meals for students and pregnant women, and the target to build three million houses for the poor annually.

The regional elections take place just over a month after Mr Prabowo’s inauguration on Oct 20 and although the General Elections Commission has until Dec 16 to release the official results, quick count results are usually fairly accurate. 

WINS FOR PRABOWO’S COALITION, TOUGH QUESTIONS FOR PDI-P 

Ahead of polling day, the race for Central Java was said to be too close to call.

But quick counts show KIM Plus candidate Ahmad Luthfi on his way to victory with nearly 60 per cent of the vote, pulling comfortably ahead of his PDI-P rival Andika Perkasa. Mr Prabowo and Jokowi endorsed Mr Ahmad, and Mr Wasisto said this likely influenced voters' considerations.

Mr Widodo’s return to Solo in Central Java after his presidency may also have helped shift the allegiance of the province’s voters, the majority of whom previously supported PDI-P, he added.

Mr Widodo was born and raised in Solo and started his political career as mayor of the city. 

On whether the PDI-P overestimated its popularity in Central Java, political analyst Nicky Fahrizal of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank said closer study is needed.

"Were the party machinery and grassroots troops moving effectively with strategies and logistics support, or were they defeated on all fronts?” he said.

“In such conditions, PDIP needs to be self-aware and recalculate its strengths comprehensively.”

In East Java, pollster Lingkaran Survei Indonesia showed incumbent and KIM Plus-backed Khofifar Indah Parawansa leading with about 58 per cent of the vote against two rivals.

In West Java, KIM Plus-backed Dedi Mulyadi has secured about 61 per cent of the vote, ahead of three rivals.

In North Sumatra, Mr Widodo’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution, the mayor of the provincial capital Medan, looks set to beat incumbent Edy Rahmayadi with about 62 per cent of support, quick counts show.

PDI-P's Mdm Megawati has not commented on the results so far. But the party will have to examine why it lost key provinces, especially Central and East Java, where it was traditionally strong, noted Mr Nicky. 

Even if it does not pick a new chairwoman, given that many members still trust Mdm Megawati, the party heads in the provinces could change, he said. 

Not all is lost for the PDI-P in this regional election, however, noted Mr Wasisto.

It is predicted to win in its stronghold of Bali, where quick counts show the party’s candidate Wayan Koster leading with more than 60 per cent of the vote compared to KIM Plus’ Made Muliawan Arya, who has about 38 per cent.

Should the Jakarta governor race enter a run-off between the top two candidates, analysts believe the PDI-P will spare no effort to help Mr Pramono.

“I think PDI-P will go all out in the second round of the Jakarta election for the sake of prestige and bargaining politics,” said Mr Wasisto.

“It could be PDI-P's last stronghold on Java Island,” surmised Mr Nicky, who added that former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan’s support gave Mr Pramono a boost and could continue to do so.

If a run-off happens, those who voted for the current third-placed candidate Mr Dharma could also decide who becomes Jakarta’s next governor, said Mr Wasisto. 

“Voters in Jakarta tend to want a leader who is a problem solver,” he noted.

And while some analysts are concerned that a run-off would be bruising and divisive, Mr Prabowo and Mr Widodo called for unity and humility after they cast their votes in the morning.

"Every election has winners and losers. Those who win must lead for everyone, and those who lose must collaborate. The most important thing is serving and working for the people," Mr Prabowo told the media after voting in West Java.

Mr Widodo, who voted in Solo in Central Java, said: "After the counting, whoever wins should not act arrogantly, and those who lose should accept the results, as sovereignty is in the hands of the people.”