Will trilateral cooperation among US, Japan and Philippines blunt China’s assertiveness in the region?

The first-ever trilateral summit among the United States, Japan and the Philippines reflects efforts by the Biden administration to create mini networks of allies to counter Chinese provocation and maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, said observers. 

US President Joe Biden said the alliance commitments with the two sides are “ironclad”, as he hosted the trilateral meeting with leaders of both countries at the White House on Thursday (Apr 11).

His meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr comes amid growing concerns over China's increasingly aggressive actions in the region.

IS CHINA THE REASON FOR THE TRILATERAL SUMMIT? 

The three countries have not always seen eye to eye on various issues, “but what's really driving these three countries together is China's assertiveness in the region”, said Dr Naoko Aoki, associate political scientist at global policy think tank RAND Corporation. 

“China has rammed Philippine vessels, used water cannons against them. This, of course, does not cross the threshold of inciting or triggering a military response, but it's also very concerning and very aggressive. Japan has its own territorial dispute in the East China Sea with China. 

“And of course, the United States is very concerned about China's aggressiveness and military modernisation. So it really is the China threat bringing the three countries together.”

China has stepped up its activities in the disputed South China Sea - one of the world’s busiest shipping routes - in recent years, causing tensions with several countries over competing territorial claims. 

For the Philippines, it has had maritime run-ins in recent months that included China firing water cannons, shining military-grade lasers, and ramming resupply vessels. 

“We are also concerned by the militarisation of reclaimed features and unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea,” said a joint statement released by the White House on Thursday.

“We steadfastly oppose the dangerous and coercive use of Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels in the South China Sea, as well as efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation.”

Meanwhile, China has also claimed sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands under Japanese administrative control in the East China Sea. The disputed islands are also known in China as the Diaoyu Islands.

At the summit, the three countries reiterated their “strong opposition” to any attempts by China to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion in the East China Sea, “including through actions that seek to undermine Japan’s longstanding and peaceful administration of the Senkaku Islands”.

HOW EFFECTIVE IS THE “MINILATERAL” APPROACH IN COUNTERING CHINA? 

Observers said that the risks in the near term still exist, even with the “minilateral” grouping between the three countries to show a united front. 

“It's not a formal grouping, but it is another partnership, a cooperative network, a part of a network that functions a certain way and tries to increase stability in the region,” said Dr Aoki, highlighting the political sensitivities and legal constraints.

“I cannot say whether it will work the way it is intended to, but I think it is not a bad strategy to have,” she told CNA938 on Friday. 

“Having all these groupings working in one way or the other flexibly would help stabilise a region, by signalling to China that there are things that China cannot do.”

The risks posed by China’s use of grey zone conflict tactics in territorial disputes, including the deployment of maritime militias, “are clearly very real”, said Mr Tobias Harris, founder and principal of political risk advisory firm Japan Foresight. 

“Of course, we absolutely cannot rule out (the risk of accident and escalation). And so this is not something that's gonna be solved with one summit, or one decision, or one policy. This is a constant process of upgrading.”

The three countries at the summit have shown their eagerness to do much more. 

Japan, for instance, is moving from the hub-and-spoke approach to US alliances in the region to a more networked approach to those relationships, Mr Harris told CNA’s Asia First on Friday. 

It is “really fostering connections between US allies directly, rather than just having them go through the United States”, and encouraging like-minded countries “to work together on more issues, and not just on security”. 

WHAT’S NEXT?

Leaders of the US, Japan and the Philippines have reaffirmed their shared vision of maintaining a rules-based international order and voiced their intentions to deepen cooperation in key areas, including defence and infrastructure development. 

“I think the idea here is to increase resilience,” said Dr Aoki. “And the idea here for the three countries is to signal to China that it cannot continue with these types of aggressive actions.”

The three countries also signalled that many more such meetings would follow in the years to come.

Dr Aoki said: “I think what the US is trying to do, and I think Japan agrees, and it looks like the Philippines agrees as well, is to create layers and these different groupings, so that they can all increase the stability of the region, preferably without invoking Chinese anger. And so that's what's going on here.”