Attempted assassination on Trump: The shooter, conspiracy theories and the Secret Service under scrutiny

Donald Trump narrowly escaped an attempt on his life at a political rally on Saturday (Jul 13), injecting fresh drama into an already tumultuous US presidential election campaign.

What was the suspect's motive? How was he able to open fire so close to the rally? And how might the incident affect the outcome of the Nov 5 election?

HOW THE SHOOTING UNFOLDED

The rally in Butler, Pennsylvania was Trump's last before the Republican National Convention opens on Jul 15.

Trump was minutes into his speech on stage when gunshots rang out. He raised his hand to touch his right ear and looked at it, before quickly crouching to the ground behind the lectern.

Then came another round of shots about five seconds after the first. 

Secret Service agents rushed to the stage to create a human shield, while armed troopers took up positions around the stage.

Seconds later, snipers on rooftops shot the attacker - later identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks.

About one minute after the first shots were heard, Trump - with blood on his right cheek - got to his feet. He raised a fist to the crowd, shouting "fight, fight, fight".

Agents then escorted him off the stage into a waiting car, with the crowd still cheering.

THE SHOOTER

The suspected shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, worked as a dietary aide at a nursing home near his hometown in Pennsylvania.

He graduated from high school in 2022, and former schoolmates reportedly described him as a "quiet" student who often came across as "lonely".

"He was quiet but he was just bullied. He was bullied so much," Jason Kohler, who said he attended school with Crooks, told reporters.

Crooks tried out for the school’s rifle team but was turned away because he was a bad shooter, said a current captain of the team who was a few years behind Crooks at the school.

Authorities are still trying to piece together a motive.

The FBI said on Sunday that his social media profile did not contain threatening language. He did not have any history of mental health issues. He did not have military affiliations. 

The gun he used - an AR-style 556 rifle - had been bought legally, likely by his father.

Crooks was a registered Republican who would have been eligible to cast his first presidential vote on Nov 5.

Public records showed that his father is a registered Republican while his mother is a registered Democrat.

US news media reported that Crooks previously gave money to a Democratic-aligned progressive political action committee.

SECRET SERVICE HAS QUESTIONS TO ANSWER

Questions have been raised about how one of the most protected political figures on earth, guarded by a state-of-the-art security detail, could have found himself just dozens of metres from an attacker armed with a rifle.

US media reports said Crooks was outside the security perimeter of the rally venue. He was on the roof of a nearby building, about 120m to 150m away from Trump.

Lawmakers have said they will launch swift investigations into how Crooks apparently managed to evade Secret Service agents, who are responsible for the security of current and former presidents.

"If there is a rooftop within rifle range of a president or a presidential candidate, it's the Secret Service that should be on that rooftop," said Richard Painter, a White House official under George W Bush and now a law professor at the University of Minnesota.

Calling it an "egregious security failure", Painter added: "The shooter was outside the Secret Service perimeter. What kind of a perimeter is that? We know that any crackpot can all too easily buy a high-powered rifle in the United States. The perimeter needs to be as far as the eye can see."

One person interviewed by the BBC said he had seen a man with a gun and had tried unsuccessfully to alert the police and Secret Service.

However, a former Secret Service agent, Paul Eckloff, defended the security team, insisting on the delicate balance needed between the demands of protecting public figures and allowing a political campaign to take place unimpeded.

"It's important for people to understand when you see that counter-sniper technician take out the threat, that until he identified it as a threat, it was an individual from 200 yards moving on a rooftop," Eckloff told ABC News.

"If he had neutralised ... an innocent civilian that just happened to be trying to get a view of former president Trump, we would be having a very different conversation," he added.

WAS IT "STAGED"?

Minutes after news broke of the assassination attempt, the word “staged” was trending on X in the US, with conspiracy theories and unsupported assertions swirling on social media. 

This was compounded by the striking images taken at the scene - Trump, 78 years old, blood on his face, fist raised and rallying his supporters.

One X user said there was a “lack of urgency” from the crowd, and asked why Trump raised his fist in the air and shouted at the crowd after the shooting.

There has been no evidence to suggest that the incident was staged.

Adding fuel to the fire is a tense political atmosphere where some Republican supporters blamed the Democratic Party.

"Democrat leaders have been fuelling ludicrous hysteria that Donald Trump winning re-election would be the end of democracy in America," said Steve Scalise, a Republican who was shot in a 2017 attack on conservative lawmakers by a left-wing activist.

"LOWER THE TEMPERATURE"

Biden touched on the heated rhetoric as he issued a rare address to the nation from the Oval Office on Sunday in which he called on Americans to "lower the temperature".

"There's no place in America of this kind of violence, for any violence, ever. Period. No exceptions. We can't allow this violence to be normalised," he said.

"You know, the political rhetoric in this country has gotten very heated. It's time to cool it down. We all have a responsibility to do that."

From the Senate, top Democrat Chuck Schumer said he was "horrified” by what happened, while his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell said violence has “no place in our politics”.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR TRUMP?

Analysts have said that the image of Trump's raised fist is set to become an iconic symbol for the former president ahead of the Nov 5 election.

Benjamin Reilly, a non-resident senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s US Studies Centre, told CNA that the opinion polls are “going to shift very strong in favour of Trump” after the shooting.

Trump has campaigned on a platform of strength, showing himself to be stronger against an ageing and rambling Joe Biden. This incident reinforces Trump’s image, observers said. 

The Biden camp has suspended all political advertisements, many of which are critical of Trump and his policies.

Professor Reilly added that the shooting has increased the prospect of the Democrats replacing Biden.

WHAT NEXT?

Mike Johnson, Speaker of the Republican-controlled US House of Representatives, said on Saturday that panels in the chamber will call soon officials from the Secret Service, the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI for hearings. 

The House oversight panel has already called Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to testify on Jul 22.

“There are many questions and Americans demand answers,” said James Comer, a Kentucky Republican who leads the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability.

Security is likely to be stepped up.

Retired supervisory Secret Service agent Bobby McDonald said: “I can tell you the Secret Service, the FBI and those local, state and federal partners are going to be looking at this with a fine tooth comb and being able to send out a message ... that there are no copycat situations moving along or to make sure that everybody that we're protecting in open air venues like this is double checking, triple checking and quadruple checking everything that needs to be checked.”

Joseph LaSorsa, a former Secret Service agent who served on the presidential detail, said the attack is certain to lead to a review of Trump’s security and going forward, he will likely be provided with a level of protection akin to a sitting president.