‘Strength and defiance’: Trump’s raised fist during assassination attempt will sway voters, say analysts
Visuals of a bloodied Donald Trump pumping his fist and shouting as he emerged triumphant from a brush with death have been beamed across the media and social networks.
Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is helped off the stage at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Jul 13, 2024. (Photo: AP/Gene J Puskar)
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Donald Trump’s reaction during the assassination attempt at his Pennsylvania rally on Saturday (Jul 13) paints him as strong and defiant, and underscores his resilience, said analysts.
Visuals of a bloodied Trump pumping his fist and shouting as he emerged triumphant from a brush with death have been beamed across the media and social networks.
Analysts said the raised fist is set to become an iconic symbol for the Republican candidate, and may well shape the course of November’s presidential election.
“Trump’s reaction to the shooting sends a message of strength and defiance,” said Benjamin Reilly, a non-resident senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre.
“Inevitably, the opinion polls are going to shift very strongly in favour of Trump after this.”
The 78-year-old former president has campaigned on a platform of strength, showing himself to be stronger against an ageing and rambling Joe Biden. This incident reinforces Trump’s image, observers said.
“Trump was already looking quite strong compared to Biden. But we’ve seen now his appearance of strength in a very traumatic episode. That would definitely appeal to his supporters,” Reilly told CNA’s Asia Now programme on Sunday.
What happened?
Trump had just started his speech at a campaign event in Pennsylvania when shots rang out.
The 78-year-old grimaced and touched his right ear with his hand, before ducking behind the podium.
In the stands behind Trump, rally attendees screamed and also crouched down.
Secret Service agents swarmed the stage, forming a human shield around the former president.
He emerged about a minute later. His red "Make America Great Again" hat had been knocked off, his right ear was visually wounded and blood streaked down his right cheek.
He pumped his fist in the air several times to loud cheers from the crowd, before being bundled into a waiting vehicle.
One audience member was killed, and two other spectators were critically injured.
The suspect was shot dead at the scene by a Secret Service sniper, the agency said.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) identified the shooter as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks from Pennsylvania.
He was registered as a Republican, according to the state’s voter records.
Trump sustained a minor injury to his right ear, and has since been released from hospital.
BLOW TO BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN
US President Biden has condemned the attack and called on the nation to unite against political violence.
His camp has suspended all political advertisements, many of which are critical of Trump and his policies.
Reilly said the shooting has increased the prospect of the Democrats replacing Biden.
“Biden is not at his best. He’s not at peak form. There’s going to be a lot of undecided voters who are now saying they’ll vote for Trump, who were swayed by the imagery of what they saw,” he said.
“The policy issues haven't changed an iota, but the imagery is very important. I think that will put a lot of pressure on the Democrats to rethink their electoral strategy.”
The 81-year-old’s political future has been in doubt since his Jun 27 debate against Trump.
His shaky performance sparked calls by his own party to step aside and let a younger candidate run.
BOOST TO TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign advisers were quick to confirm the shooting will not alter plans to formally nominate him in Milwaukee.
In the immediate aftermath of the attack, social media was abuzz with the notion that Trump is set to win the election.
“The American public feels traumatised, they feel sensitive to this person's injury and want to show him support. So Trump is going to get a little political lift (from this incident) … and it will be measurable," said former White House political director Frank Lavin.
There were also high-profile endorsements from billionaires Elon Musk and Bill Ackman.
Analysts said Trump's camp is expected to milk the shooting to sway fence-sitters and sympathetic voters.
“The image of Trump up there with a bandaged ear is going to be played and replayed,” said Jacob Neiheisel, an associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo.
“From the perspective of a campaign, media coverage and getting the most eyeballs on their candidate … this is a bit of a boon.”
CONSPIRACIES AND FAKE NEWS
Within hours of the assassination attempt, social media was awash with false information and conspiracy theories.
There were claims the shooting was staged, some misidentified the gunman and others blamed the “deep state”, a conspiracy theory about a secret network operating independently to influence government policy.
Some of Trump’s allies and supporters were also quick to accuse Biden and the Democrats of political rhetoric that led to the shooting.
Analysts said that in the absence of hard facts from authorities and the media, fake news and misleading claims will rush in to fill the gap.
“There’s a large number of conspiracy theorists in the US and conspiratorial thinking has gone mainstream. Trump himself has encouraged some of this thinking over the years,” said Reilly.
“Unfortunately, this is the tenor of the times that we're in. The internet and social media have a lot to do with this. But as more details come out about the gunman, some of those conspiracies will die down.”
COULD THIS CHANGE GUN LAWS?
Gun control laws are already a contentious issue in the presidential race. Biden has firmed up legislation and wants to ban assault weapons, while Trump says he will unravel all of that if he is back in power.
Analysts said they believe the incident is unlikely to convince the Republicans to embrace stricter gun laws.
“It would be naive to say that there’s no tradition of political violence at all in the US … we just don’t think of (it) as happening very much in the modern era,” said Neiheisel.
“This is an issue that is perpetually a problem in the US and it doesn’t tend to be one that has an easy resolution,” he added.
Reilly, however, pointed out that high-profile incidents in history have led to successful reforms of gun laws. For instance, a dozen firearm Bills were introduced in the wake of the 1963 assassination of John F Kennedy, the 35th US president.
He added that Trump, who up until now has been opposed to restrictions on gun laws, could have a change of heart, having been a victim himself and surviving a gunshot by a whisker.
“We’ll have to see … what having a near-death experience does to a man like Trump,” he said.
