Analysis: Why a 2029 mention in the third plenum suggests Xi Jinping is seeking a fourth term as China’s helmsman
While the resolution document of China’s third plenum was long on commitments but short on specifics, analysts have singled out the mention of a 2029 deadline as a hint that Mr Xi could be looking to stay in power beyond 2027.

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SINGAPORE: The prospect of a fourth term for China’s supremo Xi Jinping is looking higher, with fresh signals emerging from the recent third plenum, a reform-focused meeting by the top brass of China’s Communist Party (CCP), analysts say.
The biggest hint that Mr Xi wants to stay on as CCP head beyond 2027 lies in the introduction of a 2029 deadline to achieve the myriad, sweeping commitments made during the event, observers point out.
Citing the deadline as a “tiny signal” that a fourth term for the Chinese supremo is on the table, Dr Wu Guoguang, a senior fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis (CCA), said: “Is Xi Jinping preparing for a fourth term? My answer is definitely yes.”
He questioned the need for the party to publicly specify a 2029 deadline, noting that the CCP could have just left it unsaid while still working towards completion behind the scenes.
Dr Wu was speaking at a four-member webinar hosted on Jul 25 by CCA, that sought to analyse the context, contents and consequences of the roughly quinquennial third plenum.
Discussions during the hour-long session mostly revolved around the economic dictates from the third plenum, with the experts highlighting how a high-tech push is placed front and centre, and framed as a pivotal factor in resolving domestic problems such as unemployment and weak consumption.
“Beijing basically sees tech as a magic potion for all those problems,” said Dr Lizzi C Lee, a fellow on the Chinese economy at CCA.
A POSSIBLE FOURTH TERM?
The third plenum of the CCP Central Committee came and went last week, first yielding a 5,000-word communique summarising the sweeping commitments, before following up with a 22,000-word resolution document for the full flavour.
Long on commitments but short on specifics, the scope of the resolution on “further deepening reform comprehensively to advance Chinese modernisation” was broad, setting out 300-odd reform pledges covering the economy, society and security, to name some.
Still, a timeline surfaced - for all these reform tasks to be completed by the time the People’s Republic of China marks its 80th anniversary in 2029.
Analysts have latched onto the 2029 goal as an indication that Mr Xi intends to stay on for a fourth term as CCP general secretary,
Mr Xi already secured a record third term as CCP head at the 20th Party Congress in October 2022. His influence would be further bolstered months later with a historic third presidential term, cementing his status as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

A potential fourth term with Mr Xi at the helm would begin in 2027 and run through 2032, overlapping with the 2029 goal set out in the third plenum document.
Dr Chen Gang, assistant director and senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute (EAI), told CNA separately that the explicit mention of the 2029 goal indicates plans for Mr Xi’s continued leadership.
“The plenum proposed over 300 reforms to be completed by 2029, indicating plans for General Secretary Xi Jinping’s continued leadership into a potential fourth term,” he said, adding that the demands include breakthroughs in reform, development and technology.
Separately, China watchers cited in a Jul 25 report by Japan-based news outlet Nikkei Asia hinted at possible tactics behind publishing the 2029 reform goal.
One is that Mr Xi could make the case for staying on to finish the job, especially with the deadline not too far off - and this could also stave off doubts about his continued rule as China confronts a host of external and domestic challenges.
Another reading is that as Sino-US relations fray, Mr Xi is trying to ensure the world’s second-largest economy can endure a worst-case scenario of complete decoupling.
The next US president’s term - be it Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or whoever - would run till January 2029, the same year that the CCP wants to achieve its reform goals. The Xi administration aims to make China impervious to external conditions by then, Nikkei Asia cited an analyst as saying.
NAVIGATING TROUBLED WATERS
Politics aside, analysts participating in the CCA seminar agreed that the sweeping pledges made at the third plenum are centred on making sure China can sail through increasingly troubled foreign and domestic waters and achieve its lofty objectives.
Heavy local government debt burdens, a protracted property crisis and a shrinking workforce are but some of the issues the world’s second-largest economy faces at home. Abroad, it has to contend with growing geopolitical risks, with terms like de-risking and friendshoring sounding louder in recent years.
At the same time, China has just over a decade and a half left to achieve its self-declared goals of “basically achieving socialist modernisation” and becoming a “medium-developed country”.
“China’s big economic goal, the overarching aim … is to achieve Chinese-style modernisation,” said Dr Lee.
“There's actually a deadline for it - 2035 - which means doubling of per capita income to about US$25,000. So to hit that target, what that means is China needs to grow at about 4.5-5 per cent annually.
“Right now, the data is at 4.7 per cent, but projections usually suggest that it might dip below, well below 4 per cent next year on.”
China’s latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures were released on Jul 15, coinciding with the start of the third plenum.
The 4.7 per cent growth logged in Q2 2024 was down from the previous quarter’s 5.3 per cent, falling short of economists’ expectations and marking the lowest quarterly growth figure since the start of 2023.
In October 2022, China delayed the release of GDP data amid the twice-a-decade party congress that further consolidated power under Mr Xi.
“This lower-than-5 per cent growth could be the new normal in the coming years,” said Dr Chen from EAI in a separate interview, referring to the timing of the release of the latest GDP growth numbers.
TRUSTING IN TECHNOLOGY
To keep the economic engines humming, China is making clear that it views technology as the be-all and end-all for the short to medium term at least, said the analysts participating in the CCA seminar. They added that this also feeds into the country’s quest for self-sufficiency.
“There’s this massive emphasis on technology innovation in the so-called new quality productive forces (xin zhi sheng chan li),” said Dr Lee, referring to the catchphrase coined by Mr Xi in September last year during a trip to China’s northeastern rust belt.
She pointed out how tech-related terms feature extensively throughout the third plenum resolution document, in contrast to the comparatively muted mentions of property and housing.
“It's clear to me from the third plenum document that the Chinese leadership has decided that to sustain this level of growth. China needs systemic upgrading along the global value chain, not just short-term stimuli,” said Dr Lee.
This focus on tech is a “clear statement” that manufacturing is going to be the mainstay of Chinese development, said Mr Bert Hofman, a professor at EAI and an honorary senior fellow on the Chinese economy at CCA.
“(It’s) a policy of doubling down on science and technology, on industrial policy, linking the two, (and) having all kinds of tools that would link the two.
“Basically, it is not just (that) of today's technology, but future technology, the high-quality productive forces.”
At the same time, the analysts cautioned that the heightened pursuit of all things technology could have undesirable results.
Dr Lee warned that income inequality could be widened, which would undermine Mr Xi’s “common prosperity” push, even as she noted that the term wasn’t featured prominently in the third plenum document.
“(Common prosperity) is still one of the key tenets of Xi Jinping's economic philosophy … if we (look at) other developed economies, high-paying tech jobs are not evenly distributed, and sometimes that can lead to further socio-economic disparities,” she said.
Meanwhile, China’s reluctance to resort to traditional stimuli to directly support consumers in households has “definitely made the recovery much bumpier and much more uncertain”, Dr Lee noted.
Trade tensions could also throw a spanner in the works amid accusations of Chinese overcapacity. For instance, Chinese electric vehicles have been taking the world by storm, but they’ve since been met with a raft of tariffs from the US and Europe.
The third plenum document suggests that the Chinese leadership is cognisant of these speedbumps, Dr Lee said.
“There's definitely an emphasis on China adapting by relocating supply chains to emerging markets and shifting the economy towards domestic consumption,” she noted.
Still, it remains uncertain how effective these policies will be as the geopolitical landscape heats up - and also, whether China’s focus on national security and self-sufficiency will attract or deter foreign investment, Dr Lee cautioned.