Opposition or Prabowo’s coalition? Indonesia’s PDI-P keeps mum but analysts say Megawati has given clues
Analysts say that Mdm Megawati’s reluctance to declare PDI-P as the potential opposition party could be related to the fact that there are still PDI-P ministers remaining in President Jokowi's outgoing Cabinet.
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JAKARTA: Chairwoman of Indonesia’s ruling party, Megawati Soekarnoputri, has remained tight-lipped over her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)’s position on the incoming administration of President-elect Prabowo Subianto.
The former president has said she prefers to focus on the party's future political roles.
According to local media, Mdm Megawati said that the party’s position is usually decided at its upcoming congress, scheduled for 2025.
Observers had expected that she would have given some clarity on the PDI-P's political stance towards the incoming government at the conclusion of the party's national working meeting, locally known as Rakernas on Sunday, (May 26).
Analysts say that Mdm Megawati’s reluctance to declare PDI-P as the potential opposition party could be related to the fact that there are still PDI-P ministers remaining in President Joko Widodo's outgoing Cabinet.
The three-day meeting recommended Mdm Megawati to be the PDI-P chairwoman for another five-year term beginning from 2025, a position she has held for the past decade.
However, during the meeting's closing event, Mdm Megawati opted not to disclose the party's definitive stance on Prabowo's administration, stating that PDI-P's political position would be thoroughly considered, based on the objective of improving and maintaining Indonesia's sovereignty.
"These principles will be the foundation for our political choices," she remarked.
Attention has been focused on PDI-P, the former political sponsor of the outgoing president, who’s also known as Jokowi, as the largest winner in this year's legislative election, securing about 16.7 per cent of the votes, its third consecutive victory since the 2014 election.
However, PDI-P and President Jokowi have parted ways since the February 2024 presidential and legislative elections, with Jokowi’s endorsement of Mr Prabowo Subianto for president going against the party's directive to support its own candidate, Ganjar Pranowo.
Previously, PDI-P had signaled its intent to join the opposition against the incoming administration, citing electoral fraud by Mr Prabowo and his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is Mr Jokowi's son.
Mdm Megawati acknowledged the widespread expectation for PDI-P to declare its stance during the event but emphasised the need for a careful calculation of political risks before making a decision.
"At this very moment, I still need to properly assess the political risks," she said, adding that she was going to “play around” with the matter a bit more, to laughter from the party's cadres.
On Friday, Mdm Megawati sharply criticised the Jokowi administration's efforts in protecting democracy, stating that PDI-P does not want to remain complacent.
"Our party is one of extraordinary resilience and patience. One which is not for a comfort zone,” she declared.
REASONS BEHIND THE RETICENCE
Political observer Agung Baskoro of Trias Politika Strategis said Mdm Megawati's reluctance to declare PDI-P as the opposition may also have to do with the fact that PDI-P still has a presence in the outgoing Cabinet.
"It is not wise to (declare) PDI-P will be in the opposition when its ministers are still in the government. It means that they might have to leave immediately because PDI-P ministers have to align themselves with the party’s position,” Mr Agung told CNA.
"The situation will be clearer once Mr Prabowo is inaugurated after Oct 20," he added.
Another observer, Ray Rangkuti interpreted Mdm Megawati's statement as one which clearly indicates that PDI-P is likely to remain outside the coalition.
"There is no need for further interpretation. Mdm Megawati's speech clearly states that PDI-P is ready to be in opposition, even if that means it will be outside the government," said Mr Ray to CNA.
He said if that is the choice PDI-P makes, then it and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) could be the only two political parties in the opposition camp.
At the end of the three-day meeting, PDI-P issued a 17-point recommendation including a declaration that the 2024 election was the worst in the history of Indonesian democracy.
On another point, the party also hinted that it would only cooperate with other parties which are committed to "implementing the reform agenda, strengthening the rule of law” and in “improving the quality of democracy" in the country.
Another political observer, Ujang Komaruddin from Al Azhar University, echoed a similar view that PDI-P is showing a very strong tendency to remain in the opposition.
"PDI-P tends to be a party outside the government, the opposition. And that's good, as it will provide checks and balances," Mr Ujang told CNA.
He added that PDI-P tended to be more fierce and vocal in criticising the government whenever it is not part of the ruling establishment.
Mr Ujang however speculated that Mdm Megawati decided not to make clear the party's actual stance because there are still five months before the new government is inaugurated in October.
He said that the PDI-P chairwoman may not want her political strategies exposed prematurely if it makes its stance very clear around this time.
"In politics, strategy is key, and PDI-P has always adhered to this approach," Mr Ujang said.
So far the only senior PDI-P political figure who has openly declared that he would not join the new government is Mr Ganjar Pranowo, who stated on May 6 that he would not accept any offer of joining the Prabowo administration.
Even then it was only a personal stance by Mr Ganjar and not an official position taken by the party.
According to Mr Agung, this is also characteristic of Mdm Megawati who likes to make known her personal views first rather than that of the party’s true official position.
"Megawati may personally prefer to be outside the government. But as a political party, PDI-P is neither yet officially outside or will join the ruling coalition.”
"It may look ambiguous to the general public, but that's politics. This may leave room for any informal communication in the future," Mr Agung said.
