CNA Explains: South Korea’s opposition won a landslide election. Now what?
President Yoon Suk Yeol will slip into “lame duck” status for the remainder of his term, observers say.
National Election Commission officials count ballots during the 22nd parliamentary election in Seoul, South Korea, April 10, 2024. (REUTERS/Kim Soo-hyeon)
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South Korea's liberal opposition Democratic Party (DP) notched a landslide majority in a general election on Wednesday (Apr 10), retaining control of parliament and dealing a crushing blow to President Yoon Suk Yeol and his conservative People Power Party (PPP).
Following the stinging defeat, Mr Yoon, who has three years left in office, has vowed to reform state affairs and improve the people's livelihoods.
How did the ruling and opposition parties fare?
Scandal-plagued opposition leader Lee Jae-myung's DP and its satellite party won a combined 175 of 300 seats in the National Assembly, up from 156 in the outgoing legislature.
However, all the opposition parties combined fell short of a super majority of 200 seats that would give them powers to override vetoes, amend the constitution or try to impeach the president.
Mr Yoon’s PPP and its satellite party obtained 108 seats, down from 114 seats in the outgoing legislature.
Following the bitterly fought race, PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, South Korea’s Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and a string of senior aides have offered to step down from their posts.
On how the opposition managed to keep its parliamentary majority, Professor Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Korean studies programme at Stanford University, said: “There were no major policy debates between the ruling and main opposition parties.
“The opposition party ran a campaign capitalising on very strong anti-Yoon sentiment, and the ruling party didn't have any effective strategy to counter the opposition's attack.”
What does the result mean for the Yoon administration?
Dr Jong Eun Lee, assistant professor of political science at North Greenville University, said voters have chosen to hold the ruling party and Mr Yoon more accountable.
He added: “A lot of South Korean voters seem to have been frustrated that President Yoon seems to always emphasise his legal (and) political principles, and is not willing to find the middle ground or negotiate compromise.”
The resounding electoral defeat “confirms the people's discontent with the Yoon Suk Yeol government and their performance for the last two years,” Prof Shin, who is also director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, told CNA’s Asia First on Thursday.
“And now facing a larger opposition in the parliament, it's a big challenge for Yoon and his government to run the country for the next three years.”
However, President Yoon can still exercise his veto power over parliament Bills.
“So what will happen is that the opposition will probably keep passing Bills, and be more aggressive in pushing for their policy agendas. And Yoon may have to continue to veto and there'll be some stalemates,” said Prof Shin.
“Then it's very hard to implement any policy reform or agenda in this kind of situation. It's likely to continue in the coming three years.”
Mr Yoon, who took office in May 2022, has already vetoed nine contentious Bills passed by the DP, including one for a special counsel investigation into his wife and First Lady Kim Keon-hee's alleged involvement in stock manipulation.
Dr Lee told CNA938 on Thursday that the opposition party will renew their efforts to investigate President Yoon’s government.
“In the next three years, will he continue to exercise his veto power against the National Assembly?” said Dr Lee.
“He could, but what would be the public reaction? Would they blame the National Assembly, or would they blame the president for continuing to block the laws passed by the National Assembly?
“So that's going to be a burden that President Yoon would have to think about for every single legislation passed by the National Assembly they oppose.”
What about President Yoon’s chances of staying in power?
The vote was largely seen as a midterm referendum on Mr Yoon.
His ratings have suffered a drubbing over a series of political gaffes as well as a cost of living crisis.
“To be fair, there is a valid argument that the first two years of Yoon's presidency have been difficult as he faced a divided government,” said Dr Lee.
“With the National Assembly controlled by the opposition party, it was never going to be easy for President Yoon to pass his major legislative agendas, say on labour reform, pension reform, education reform. So there is a fair understanding of the difficulty President Yoon faced.”
The election results have dealt a huge political blow to the former prosecutor and his domestic agenda, said observers, adding that he will slip into “lame duck” status for the rest of his term.
The 63-year-old still has some support, “but I think there will be some tensions inside the ruling party about the leadership for the future”, said Prof Shin.
“So (Mr Yoon and PPP leader Han) will probably have to go through a very challenging time in the coming weeks and months.”
What lies ahead for South Korean politics?
According to the National Election Commission, turnout for the election was about 67 per cent of the 44.2 million eligible voters, the highest in 32 years.
“Both conservative and progressive really galvanised their supporters to vote,” said Prof Shin, adding that the high voting rates show “a really deep political division and a high political polarisation”.
“The liberals were so unhappy with the current government that they really wanted to send a strong message to the ruling party,” he noted.
“On the other hand, the ruling conservative party were quite concerned about their leader becoming a ‘lame duck’, so they also mobilised their people.”
Prof Shin hopes the lawmakers can put aside their differences and work together to address pressing domestic concerns, such as the high living costs and ageing population.
“Korean politics has become highly polarised … and there is very little space for the moderates,” he noted.
“And I hope that Yoon can be more willing to compromise on certain agendas, but that is something that we have to see because that hasn't happened in the past.”
He added: “I'm quite worried about the future of Korean politics because this could have been a very good opportunity to debate on major policy issues, but nothing like that happened.
“It's really just attacking each other, demoralising each other.”
