Taiwan third-quarter economic growth likely slowed on tariff impact: Reuters poll
Containers are stacked on a Taiwanese shipping firm Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp container ship in Keelung, Taiwan July 9, 2025. REUTERS/Ann Wang
TAIPEI :Taiwan's trade-reliant economy likely grew at a slower pace in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the prior three months, according to a Reuters poll released on Wednesday, with strong tech demand counterbalanced by the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Taiwan's gross domestic product is expected to have expanded 6.0 per cent year-on-year in the July-September quarter, the poll of 26 economists showed, down from 8.01 per cent in the second quarter.
The economists' forecasts for preliminary GDP data, which is due on Friday, varied widely from an expansion of just 3.0 per cent to as much as 8.4 per cent.
Taiwan's trade-driven economy could be substantially affected this year if it is not able to reduce the 20 per cent tariff on its exports currently charged by the United States, though semiconductors, a key Taiwanese product, are exempted so far.
Tariff talks with the United States have continued, with no outcome yet.
"The strength in high-tech sectors has helped stabilise the job market, supporting a rebound in private consumption. This momentum is expected to persist in the near term," Oxford Economics said in a note. "That said, traditional manufacturing sectors have begun to feel the impact of higher U.S. tariffs."
Taiwan is a major hub in the global technology supply chain for the likes of Nvidia, home to the world's largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, whose chips are widely used for artificial intelligence applications.
The island's economy could grow more than 3 per cent next year given demand for AI applications continues at a rapid clip, Economic Affairs Minister Kung Ming-hsin said last week, offering a more optimistic outlook for 2026 than previous government forecasts.
Taiwan's preliminary GDP data will be released in a statement with limited commentary. More detailed and revised figures, including forward-looking forecasts, will follow a few weeks later.
(Poll compiled by Devayani Sathyan and Carol Lee; Reporting by Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)
