Thai finance ministry maintains 2026 growth forecast at 2.0% despite weaker exports
Bangkok's skyline is photographed during sunset in Bangkok, Thailand, July 3, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha
BANGKOK, Jan 27 : Thailand's economy is expected to grow 2.0 per cent this year, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, maintaining its previous forecast, with support from tourism and domestic demand likely to offset a slowdown in export growth.
Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, are predicted to rise 1.0 per cent this year, compared with an earlier forecast of a 1.5 per cent decline, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the finance ministry's fiscal policy office, told a press conference.
But the growth in shipments is expected to slow from the 12.9 per cent rate reached in 2025 due to the high base, softer global trade volumes, and risks from U.S. trade countermeasures, the ministry said.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has been struggling with the appreciating baht, U.S. tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict with Cambodia and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February.
The baht has gained about 1.1 per cent against the dollar so far this year after a 9 per cent rise in 2025, threatening the competitiveness of the export and tourism sectors.
"Tourism will be the main growth engine in 2026," Vinit said, with foreign tourist arrivals projected to reach 35.5 million, up from about 33 million recorded last year but still much lower than the record of nearly 40 million visitors set in 2019, before the pandemic.
Private consumption is forecast to expand 2.5 per cent, supported by resilient domestic activity, while private investment is projected to grow 3.2 per cent as state-promoted projects begin to materialise, the ministry said.
Government investment is expected to contract by 1.7 per cent, with a political transition and administrative processes likely to delay the fiscal 2027 budget plan by around three months. Government consumption is projected to grow 1.3 per cent, the ministry said.
The ministry said it expected headline inflation at 0.3 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 0.5 per cent and following last year's rate of negative 0.14 per cent. The central bank's target range is between 1 per cent and 3 per cent.
"There will be more frequent discussions with the central bank on the inflation target, in every three months instead of once a year, to bring inflation back within the target range as quickly as possible," Vinit saiid.
The ministry said there were risks from global trade volatility as well as high household and smaller business debt.
For 2025, the economy is estimated to have expanded 2.2 per cent, with annual growth in the final quarter projected at 1.8 per cent, Vinit said.
Official 2025 gross domestic product data will be released next month by the state planning agency. The economy expanded 2.5 per cent in 2024.
The U.S. imposed a 19 per cent tariff on imported goods from Thailand, in line with other countries in the region.
