CNA Explains: Why does the national election in tiny Solomon Islands matter for the rest of the world?

The people of the Solomon Islands on Wednesday (Apr 17) cast their vote in a national election that could have huge repercussions for the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, due to the tiny country’s close ties with China.

The election outcome in the Solomon Islands, which has a population of around 700,000, will be closely watched by the United States, China and Australia for its potential impact on security in the region. 

Why does the election matter?

This election is the nation’s first since Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing soon after assuming the role in 2019.

“The reason the world is really focused on this is the switch to China and Prime Minister Sogavare's Look North policy, which has opened the door to China to increase its presence in the region,” said Dr Meg Keen, director of the Pacific Islands programme at Australia-based think tank Lowy Institute.

“So we're seeing a very different security and development dynamic that is emerging. Solomon Islands is where China has the strongest foothold in the region.”

Solomon Islands sits on vital sea lanes between the United States and Australia. 

“If there was a conflict in the South China Sea, these would be very important supply chains into the region,” Dr Keen told CNA’s Asia Now on Wednesday. 

“Also, this has been an area where Australia, in particular, has been the primary security and development partner and wants to maintain that position. This is its neighbourhood.

“For China, they're trying to win support for their One China policy. They want global access and there (are) some very valuable assets and resources like fisheries and minerals in this region,” she added.

Meanwhile, the US has sought to re-engage the Solomon Islands, from investing in its development to setting up an embassy in Honiara. 

Solomon Islands has now found itself “in a sticky situation”, Dr Keen added. 

“Solomon Islands is balancing multiple opportunities, and with that also having to balance its commitment to democracy, openness, media freedom, and other elements that are really important to the people.”

The high-stakes election is one of the most logistically challenging ballots in the world, involving 420,000 registered voters casting their votes at 1,200 polling stations spread across 900 islands. 

It was delayed from 2023, until after the Pacific Games were hosted in stadiums donated by China.

The Solomon Islands Electoral Commission had earlier urged voters to keep their vote secret and avoid vote-buying, which was a widespread practice in past elections.

Who is running? 

Mr Sogavare, who is running as leader of the Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party, has been made prime minister four times.

“Sogavare is a well-established political actor in Solomon Islands. He's just completed his fourth term as prime minister, so he is very well known in the Solomon Islands,” said Dr Tess Newton Cain, project lead for the Pacific Hub at the Griffith Asia Institute. 

His government signed a secretive security cooperation pact with China two years ago, shocking the US and Australia and fuelling unease about Beijing’s influence in the Pacific. But Mr Sogavare rejected suggestions this might give China a military foothold in the region.

Last year, Solomon Islands and China agreed to boost cooperation on “law enforcement and security matters”.

While some people are pleased with what he has achieved, including successfully hosting last year’s Pacific Games, others are discontented with his government for not having done enough to support them with rising living costs, Dr Newton Cain told CNA938 on Wednesday. 

Standing in Mr Sogavare’s way are several people hoping to dislodge him.

Prominent opposition candidate and former United Nations official Peter Kenilorea Jr of the United Party has vowed to abolish the China security pact, and hopes to build more infrastructure partnerships with Western countries.

His father Peter Kenilorea was the first prime minister of the Solomon Islands after independence. 

Meanwhile, opposition leader Matthew Wale’s Solomon Islands Democratic Party formed a coalition with the Democratic Alliance Party. 

The coalition has pledged to address education and health concerns and develop a foreign policy that prioritises national interests.

Dr Keen said these other candidates feel there should be a greater focus on development issues and on service provision rather than geopolitics, and that they fear closer relations with China are affecting the transparency of government and sovereignty issues.

Dr Newton Cain believes Solomon Islanders have voted based on issues that are “closer to home, much more about domestic policy”.

What are some concerns around the election? 

There are fears that the electoral process could ignite unrest, said observers. 

Mr Sogavare's embrace of China, in particular, has fueled anti-government riots in the past. Violence hit the Chinatown district in the capital Honiara in 2019 and 2021.

Dr Newton Cain said: “As things progress to the formation of the government stage and the announcement of the prime minister, we have previously seen that spark violence, and that will certainly be an issue of concern for Solomon Island's authorities and their partners.”

To prepare for the prospect of post-election violence, a temporary steel fence has been erected around the Chinese embassy. Local police are also getting help from officers from Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea on the ground.

“Generally, I'm pretty confident that Solomon Islands’ democracy will be maintained through and after these elections,” said Dr Terence Wood, research fellow at the Australian National University's Development Policy Centre. 

“Of course, that doesn't mean that democratic governance in Solomon Islands will be particularly good.”

What happens after the election? 

The 50 members of the national parliament are elected for a four-year term. 

The prime minister is chosen after polling day by a vote of newly elected lawmakers. This process can take several weeks. 

“Holding the elections and getting the results of the elections is only the first step,” said Dr Newton Cain. 

“The next step, which is where the real kind of work gets done, is a lot more opaque. It's kind of done behind closed doors … where the horse trading and the offers and the counter offers come into play.”

What is at stake?

If re-elected, Mr Sogavare has pledged to deepen ties with China, which has pumped millions of dollars of investment into the country for projects including building ports, roads and a telecommunications network.

“He sees that as putting Solomon Islands on the map. He sees it as being on the right side of history and possibly the right side of the economy as well. He has also said that he does want to maintain and develop relationships with more traditional partners, Australia and possibly the US,” said Dr Newton Cain. 

“If we were to see a change at the top to someone like Matthew Wale or Peter Kenilorea Jr, then we would expect to see foreign policy possibly shift quite significantly. Their foreign policy positions would be significantly different and probably a bit more pro-West, looking to partners such as Australia and the US.”

On the domestic front, Solomon Islanders are focused on issues such as the rising cost of living, and decline of education and health services. 

“You might find a small subset of the country's voters, particularly the urban middle class in Honiara and also perhaps some voters in some parts of Malaita, who may be paying more attention to international issues in this election than they normally would,” Dr Wood told CNA’s Asia First on Wednesday.

“However, most voters in Solomon Islands… have immediate material needs, so they will vote as always for the candidate who they think will help them, their family or their community with direct material assistance.

“In Solomon Islands, almost all electoral politics is very localised,” he added.