France election: Macron, Le Pen and a political system under strain
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With France’s far-right National Rally winning the first round of France’s legislative election and setting its sights on an absolute majority, there is a lot more at stake than the liberal, pro-business reform agenda of centrist President Emmanuel Macron.
Here’s a guide to the election, showing how the rise of the anti-immigrant party led by Marine Le Pen is putting France’s unique political system under strain.
WHAT’S THE FRENCH ELECTION PROCESS?
France has a semi-presidential system in which citizens choose a president and National Assembly lawmakers in separate votes.
The upcoming vote - called by Macron after his party received a drubbing in the European elections earlier this month - will determine the makeup of the 577-member legislature, which is renewed every five years.
Unless one candidate wins 50 per cent of votes cast, representing at least 25 per cent of registered voters in the first-round vote on Jun 30, the lowest-placed candidates will be eliminated and the top-placed contenders will then slug it out in a run-off.
This setup makes it hard to predict which parties will prevail in the end, and if any will win an outright parliamentary majority.
After the second round on Jul 7, the president will seek to name a prime minister who can command a majority.
If no single group secures one, a process of coalition building will need to take place.
The prime minister doesn't necessarily need an outright majority to govern, but does need enough support to avoid losing a no-confidence vote if one were called.
Macron will stay on as president regardless of the election outcome. Term limits mean he cannot stand for reelection when his second mandate expires in 2027.
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WHO ARE THE CONTENDERS?
- RENAISSANCE AND ALLIES
Macron first pieced together his centrist party in 2016 in his initial run for president.
He poached politicians from the old center-left Socialist and center-right Gaullist parties to lead a technocratically minded government that said it would tackle entrenched interest groups, reinvigorate the economy and slash unemployment. It is still a work in progress.
- NATIONAL RALLY
The far-right, nationalist party was formerly known as the National Front. Its leader Marine Le Pen has tried to make the brand less toxic and more electable since taking over in 2011 from her father Jean-Marie, who was notorious for his racist and antisemitic comments.
Marine Le Pen has largely maintained the party’s hostility to immigrants but stopped campaigning for France to leave the European Union.
She’s brought more discipline to the movement, both in its language and attire in an effort to make it look and sound more like a government in waiting.
Opinion polls suggest the National Rally will win the biggest share of the vote in its best showing ever.
- NEW POPULAR FRONT
This coalition of leftist parties has called for a cut in the official retirement age to 60 from 62, reversing the law pushed through by Macron that will raise it to 64, a higher minimum wage and the return of wealth taxes.
Whether it would actually do all this in office would depend partly on which of its heavyweights became prime minister.
The movement is a coalition ranging from the far-left - personified by radical firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon - to more traditional social-democrats including former President Francois Hollande.
- THE REPUBLICANS
Inheritors of the center-right tradition established by de Gaulle and perpetuated by former Presidents Jacques Chirac and Georges Pompidou, the Republicans are now in turmoil.
When their leader Eric Ciotti defied his party colleagues and called for a tie-up with the National Rally, they fired him, only for Ciotti to insist he was staying on.
The party was trailing well behind its three main rivals in opinion polls, but could still play a decisive role if none can secure a majority in the assembly.
CAN LE PEN’S NATIONAL RALLY WIN POWER?
If it does, it will be the first time since World War II that a far-right party has taken national office.
The design of the Fifth Republic founded by Charles De Gaulle in 1958 has kept extremists largely on the margins of politics.
In national elections, if candidates who are seen as beyond the pale perform strongly in the first round, then a “republican front” usually rallies around the highest-placed moderate candidate to block their path in a runoff.
The system worked to devastating effect in 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen pipped the Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, to come in a close second to then-President Jacques Chirac in round one, only to be annihilated in the runoff when leftists joined the centre-right to block his path.
But the idea of a republican front has lost much of its potency in recent years.
When Macron faced off against Marine Le Pen in 2017 he won comfortably in the second round, taking 66.1 per cent of the vote.
In 2022, the figure dropped to 58.6 per cent. Le Pen’s effort to make the National Rally more palatable for mainstream voters has reaped rewards in the National Assembly.
A breakthrough came in 2022 when it leapt to 88 seats from eight. The National Rally has moved higher in opinion polls since then, and looks set to be the biggest seat winner in Sunday’s snap vote, even if projections so far still show it falling short of an outright majority.
WHAT IF THE NATIONAL RALLY WINS THE FRENCH ELECTION?
If the National Rally won a majority in the assembly, and everything then went according to precedent, Macron would ask Le Pen’s deputy, Jordan Bardella, whom the National Rally has designated as its choice for prime minister, to form a power-sharing government - an arrangement known as cohabitation.
That already happened in 1986, 1993 and 1997, when the biggest group in parliament was of a different political stripe to the president, forcing him to name a new government from among his opponents.
In general, the president has to step back and focus largely on foreign policy, while the government controls domestic issues.
However, it is not quite that simple, especially when the two sides are at odds.
The National Rally and Macron are deeply divided over fundamental matters of state, including foreign policy.
The constitution is not clear as to who fundamentally gets to control foreign affairs when there is cohabitation. Among the few areas that are the domain of the president alone is his role as the commander-in-chief of the military.
While Macron is an ardent champion of the EU, the National Rally has a strong eurosceptic current that endures despite Le Pen’s policy shifts.
While Macron has gone all-in to support Ukraine, the National Rally has been more reserved, with Bardella saying during the legislative campaign that he backs Ukraine’s right to defend itself but opposes sending long-range missiles.
CAN MACRON FIND AN ALTERNATIVE EVEN IF THE NATIONAL RALLY GETS THE MOST SEATS?
Possibly - as long as the National Rally doesn’t get an outright majority, which means at least 289 seats.
The party has already said it would refuse the premiership if it does not hit that mark.
As a formal matter, the president is free to name whomever he wants as prime minister. But that person has to be able to survive a no-confidence vote if one were called.
If the National Rally were the largest bloc, but have fewer than 289 seats, it would open the door for other parties to try to form a coalition.
One problem for Macron is that he has spent the election campaign warning voters not to choose extremists - either on the left or the right.
That would make it hard for him to turn round and ally with people like Melenchon, the leader of one of the main parties making up the New Popular Front and a man committed to undoing a swathe of Macron’s reforms.
COULD MACRON PICK A FAR-RIGHT PRIME MINISTER, THEN SCUPPER THEIR PLANS?
The system does allow the president some leeway to obstruct the government.
He could delay approving legislation, or even dissolve parliament again in a year - though it is not clear if the result would be any different.
As such, the centre of gravity would shift decisively to the prime minister.
One other possibility is for him to try to craft some kind of arms-length governing arrangement with the National Rally where its program is watered down and some of Macron’s more right-leaning ministers end up in the new administration.
Such an outcome may be too unpalatable for Macron, given the risk of being tainted by association with the party.
