‘It is time for this war to end': Is a Gaza ceasefire in sight after Netanyahu’s US visit?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped to bolster support for his country’s fight against Hamas during his visit to the United States. Instead, he has been facing mounting pressure from Washington to end the nine-month war in Gaza. 

US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met Netanyahu separately on Thursday (Jul 25), with both pressing him to get a ceasefire deal over the line. This comes after months of negotiations with little breakthrough. 

But the White House believes negotiators are closer than ever to a ceasefire agreement, even though gaps remain between Israel and Hamas militants. 

Analysts said both sides would have to make some compromises. 

The best move that Netanyahu can take right now would be to agree to a ceasefire, “even if it means that the main objective of having Hamas eliminated is not met”, said Benjamin Radd, political scientist and lecturer at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Law.

This is despite the risk of Netanyahu having his government toppled, which exposes him to political and legal risks, he said.

“But at the end of the day, it's a question of what is going to matter more - securing the freedom of these hostages and bringing an end to this conflict or maintaining his position as prime minister? That is really a personal decision to him,” he told CNA’s Asia First on Friday. 

GROWING PRESSURE TO END CONFLICT

During their talks, Harris - expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee for president after Biden dropped his re-election bid - sharply pressed Netanyahu about the humanitarian situation in Gaza. 

The meeting was watched for signs of her policy on Israel, if she becomes president following the November presidential election.

Harris raised concerns about the scale of human suffering and the deaths of "far too many innocent civilians", adding that “it is time for this war to end”. 

The war started after Oct 7 when Hamas-led fighters stormed into southern Israel from Gaza, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 captives, according to Israeli tallies. Some 120 hostages are still being held, though Israel believes a third of them are dead.

Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's retaliatory campaign since the start of the war, according to the Gaza health ministry.

Despite Harris striking a tougher tone, she is likely to still be aligned with Biden on Israel, said analysts. 

“I don't see her deviating too much from where the party's position has been,” said Radd, adding that Harris would likely continue being more vocal about the humanitarian conditions in Gaza

“The party, in general, still continues to support the US-Israel relationship as it stands, and that's not going to shift too much.”

On Friday, Netanyahu will travel to Florida to meet Republican candidate and former president Trump. 

Trump may be more aggressive and forceful in his support for Israel, “even going further saying what might need to be done”, Radd noted.

NETANYAHU'S “DEFIANT” ADDRESS

Harris was notably absent from Netanyahu’s Congress address on Wednesday, as she had events in Indiana and Texas. 

Although White House officials said that her absence was not a slight but solely due to scheduling conflicts, geopolitics professor Cedomir Nestorovic of the ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific said: “The very fact that she was not present… (for) the speech of Prime Minister Netanyahu is also indicative that maybe she will be even colder than Joe Biden was.”

Netanyahu on Wednesday delivered an impassioned address to a US Congress divided by the ongoing war in Gaza,.

James Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said: “Essentially, this was about shoring up support and ensuring support, and expressing gratitude to the United States for the support the US has given Israel over in this war.

“Despite all the optimism that is being expressed by various parties with regard to a ceasefire deal, we're no closer in terms of a narrowing of the positions between Hamas and Israel.”

In his speech, Netanyahu attempted to boost continued support for Israel’s military offensive.

“He was very defiant in his speech,” Nestorovic told CNA’s Asia First on Thursday. “He was very combative in his speech, but he didn't have many elements concerning the ceasefire or concerning the hostages released.

“So this is something which was missing in this speech. So it is very difficult to find out what his vision is concerning the future, apart from a military operation that is happening right now in Gaza.”

Hamas wants Israel to commit to a permanent ceasefire, but a three-phase proposal that Biden first presented in May for a ceasefire in return for the release of Israeli hostages “doesn't really guarantee that”, Dorsey told CNA’s Asia Now on Thursday. 

The first phase involves a six-week ceasefire with an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. 

In this phase, Hamas and Israel would negotiate a permanent ceasefire. If negotiations take more than six weeks, the temporary ceasefire would extend while they continue.

In the second phase, there would be an exchange of all remaining surviving hostages. The third phase would include a major reconstruction plan for Gaza.

“What Netanyahu wants is really only the first phase of that proposal, which is a six-week ceasefire in which a number of hostages, as many as possible, are exchanged for a number of Palestinians, and then go back to the war,” Dorsey said.

IMPACT OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Netanyahu on Wednesday praised both Biden and Trump for their efforts towards Middle East peace.

“I think obviously he needs to keep his lines open to both parties, and that's what he's doing, which from his point of view makes absolute sense. He's got a lot of question marks or uncertainties,” said Dorsey. 

“On the one hand, there's the question mark with regard to Kamala Harris, to what degree she may shift an emphasis of policy,” he added.

“But on the other hand, Trump is not a given.”

On how much of a priority Israel is for the US now, Nestorovic said it is dependent on who is going to be the next president. 

Biden, who dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday, “is definitely weakened… and he cannot engage very much for the future”, he noted.

“The battle is just beginning between Trump and Harris,” said Nestorovic. 

“We would have to see if the Middle East, if the situation in Israel and Gaza, are going to be the centre-stage of their campaign, or if they're going to be on the (sidelines) and they'll put the emphasis on the domestic issues first.”