What can Biden's visit accomplish as Israel-Hamas conflict escalates?
Analysts said that despite the risks, Mr Biden’s visit is necessary as it is not just a show of US support for its long-time ally, but also an opportunity to contain the conflict.
US President Joe Biden attends a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as he visits Israel amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct 18, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)
United States President Joe Biden’s high-stakes visit to Israel comes at a critical time ahead of what is expected to be a bloody ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza, with observers hoping he can contain the escalating war and press Israel to allow humanitarian aid for civilians.
US media has called the foray into the active war zone one of the riskiest trips in the 80-year-old’s presidency, but analysts said that despite the dangers, the visit is necessary as it is not just as a show of US support for its long-time ally, but also an opportunity to avert a wider conflict.
“Of course the US would show solidarity with Israel, but it's also a chance to quietly work one-on-one to urge restraint on the part of the Israelis,” said Professor Greg Barton, chair of Global Islamic Politics at Deakin University, told CNA’s Asia First on Wednesday (Oct 18).
HOSPITAL BLAST COMPLICATIONS
However, Tuesday’s explosion at the al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital in the Palestinian enclave is set to undermine Mr Biden’s diplomatic drive in the region.
The Hamas-run Health Ministry in the Gaza Strip put the death toll at 500 and said it was caused by an Israeli airstrike. Israeli authorities denied involvement, saying it was a rocket misfired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an armed group based in Gaza.
Dr John Donaldson, an associate professor of political science at the Singapore Management University (SMU), said the US president’s initial plan for the visit was to send a strong message of support for Israel.
However, in the wake of the hospital strike – and conflicting reports about responsibility – complications have arisen.
“Right now, we don't know who bombed the hospital and why,” Dr Donaldson told CNA938.
“But it's a game changer and he (Biden) needs to show that he is also sending a signal to the Israeli forces about restraint and that civilian lives are important.”
Already, Jordan has cancelled a planned four-way emergency summit with Mr Biden alongside Egyptian and Palestinian leaders, while angry demonstrations have swept across the Middle East.
“President Biden's team will be working very hard to try and get proof out to the public on what they believe has happened, and then to proceed on that basis,” Prof Barton told CNA’s Asia First.
“There’s so much surveillance and visual feed. The problem is that people have (already) made up their minds about what's happened (at the hospital).”
AVERTING REGIONAL CONFLICT
The US has been moving warships to eastern Mediterranean waters and aircraft to its bases around the Middle East, reflecting concerns that the war will spill over into a regional conflict.
Observers said the US' show of force aims to send a message of deterrence to other countries or parties from joining in against Israel.
“He (Biden) is hoping to show US support for Israel to deter a widening of this conflict – Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and any other parties that may want to get involved in this,” said Dr Donaldson.
“He needs to deter it … or it will risk bringing the US more directly into this conflict.”
Mr Biden is also trying to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, putting increased pressure on Israel in recent days to protect civilian lives from airstrikes and to ensure that aid reaches those affected.
IMPENDING GROUND OFFENSIVE
Israel is widely expected to launch a major ground offensive into Gaza as it seeks to eliminate Hamas following a surprise rampage on Israeli towns on Oct 7 that killed more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians. The militant group also took hostages.
Since then, Israel has retaliated with the bombardment of Gaza, which has levelled swaths of the enclave and caused the death of more than 3,000 people.
In Israel’s quest to vanquish Hamas, the real challenge is in the price of civilian casualties and suffering, said Prof Barton.
“In destroying Hamas’ military capacity and taking them out of the equation, what sort of collateral damage (is sustained)? How many civilians will lose their lives? Will it be possible to build a political solution after that?” he asked.
While Mr Biden has warned that any move by Israel to occupy Gaza would be a “big mistake”, he also said that “taking out the extremists” is a “necessary requirement”.
OBSERVERS PESSIMISTIC
As the conflict escalates, observers are pessimistic about how much influence Mr Biden has over Israel on the impending ground incursion. Urging restraint and humanitarian support could be more viable instead, they said.
When asked if the US president could convince Israel to avoid an invasion into Gaza, Dr Donaldson said: “I'm not sure he can do much about that at all.”
“He will urge restraint. He will urge more aid and support, and the openings of routes for civilians to evacuate. All of those are absolutely necessary, but I'm not too sure how much influence he will have.”
Prof Barton said Mr Biden “should be pushing everyone involved to uphold laws of conflict and to avoid war crimes.”
“Once Israel proceeds with its operation (on the ground in Gaza), the question is how much restraint is shown, and how much pressure is on them to be very surgical with the strikes and not indiscriminate with force. This is a really critical time,” he added.
“We've seen thousands of lives lost already and there is potential for tens of thousands more to be lost. Restraint and accountability are key. President Biden's team is focused on an eventual political solution – as difficult as it seems to imagine – because that is the only way to get lasting peace in the region.”
