Russian President Putin on tour around Asia to prove he ‘still has friends’, say analysts
Some observers believe Putin is demonstrating that efforts by the West to isolate Russia have failed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is demonstrating to the world through his recent trips around Asia that the country still has friends, and that efforts by the West to isolate it are futile, said observers.
Putin arrived in Vietnam on Thursday (Jun 20), his final stop on a two-nation tour of Asia after concluding a defence agreement with North Korea.
The Southeast Asian nation will be the third in the region that Putin has visited since he was sworn in for a fifth term. He visited China last month, where he emphasised the growing strategic relations between both sides as well as his personal ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“YOU CAN’T ISOLATE RUSSIA”
Chang Jun Yan, assistant professor of military studies and United States programmes at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said: “it is important to demonstrate that Russia still has different friends outside of the West, and not just China alone.”
This comes after about 90 countries attended a two-day Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland earlier this month.
While Western powers and their allies denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the forum, they failed to persuade major non-aligned states to join the summit communique.
“The West is isolating Russia, diplomatically and economically, because of its invasion of Ukraine,” said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Canberra.
“And Vladimir Putin has used the invitations from North Korea and Vietnam to combine a trip for him to demonstrate to the outside world that you can't isolate Russia.”
During a pomp-filled trip to Pyongyang earlier this week, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a military pact to include a mutual defence pledge to help each other if attacked.
The two internationally isolated leaders also took a drive in a Russian-built Aurus limousine, after Putin presented one of the luxury cars to Kim as a gift.
On how Putin’s trip to North Korea and Vietnam will be viewed, RSIS’ Chang said: “US allies in the Asia Pacific are generally not so concerned about Russia, unlike US allies in Europe.”
As for China, it is more likely concerned about whether Russia will come between it and North Korea, or whether there will be a greater tripartite strategic convergence among Russia, North Korea and China, Chang told CNA’s East Asia Tonight on Wednesday.
“The latter is by no means a guarantee,” he added.
“Generally speaking, China values stability more than disruption, which may not be quite true for Russia and North Korea. And thus going forward, it may very well even be the case that the West and the rest of the world expects China to play a larger role to restrain Russia and North Korea.”
Chang said he believes the West could build better ties with China to alleviate pressures from Russia and North Korea.
WHAT’S IN IT FOR VIETNAM?
Meanwhile, Vietnam officially pursues a neutral foreign policy that it calls "bamboo diplomacy" in its relations with world powers, and has abstained from condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine.
“To put it bluntly, it's not in Vietnam's interest to see Russia weakened or isolated. It's a key counterbalance to pressures from China, the United States, or any other country,” said Thayer.
“Although the West tends to see it as an aggressor, Vietnam sees it as a vital support link in dealing with other major powers.”
While Vietnam stands strongly for territorial integrity and sovereignty, it “has to be very, very quiet on that” to retain the relationship with Putin’s Russia, he told CNA’s Asia First on Thursday.
He added that Vietnam wants to maintain its strategic autonomy and independence, “and it will deal with all countries, including the devil, to maintain that”.
“Vietnam and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners, the highest level that Vietnam has. They have a comprehensive relationship, based on a long history of support,” Thayer noted.
“Then there are questions of the past legacy of Vietnam's dependence on Russia for armaments. It's totally technologically dependent on Russia, yet it's had to stop buying over the last several years for fear of Western sanctions.”
Vietnam has been working to diversify arms supplies away from Russia, its top provider of weapons for decades.
Despite an estimated budget of more than US$1 billion annually for arms imports, the country placed no new major orders last year, according to defence think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
“What we really do have is a massive decline in Vietnamese purchases,” said Thayer.
“It's marking time. It has a legacy of dependence, and it vitally needs new technology from Russia. The West and other countries are too expensive, and it would take too long to readjust.”
PUTIN’S FIRST VISIT SINCE 2017
Vietnam had geared up for a full state welcome for Putin, his first visit since 2017 and his fifth in total.
During the two-day state visit, he will hold talks with Vietnam’s top leaders and attend wreath-laying ceremonies, including at the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum, which houses the embalmed corpse of the country's founding leader.
“What Vietnam wants is pretty much to show that the ties with Russia are still cordial,” said Chang.
Besides Putin, Vietnam has hosted the leaders of other superpowers over the past nine months.
US President Joe Biden visited the country in September, while Chinese President Xi made a trip there in December.
“I think that is the challenge for all states in Southeast Asia – to balance the relationship between both the US and China, which are important partners for the region in economic as well as strategic terms,” said Chang.
“So each country is really doing its utmost to balance these ties. But regionally, I would say that Vietnam has been doing fairly well in this regard.”
“The Vietnamese strategy would be to say, it's in your interest to keep cooperating with us because we won't side with Russia completely, or China or the US,” said Thayer on the country’s geopolitical significance.
“So that's the crux of Vietnam's position on how to stay at the centre of their galaxy without being sucked into anybody's orbit.”