Analysis: TikTok's potential US ban raises prospect of China retaliation but fallout would be limited
China’s commerce ministry said it would take “all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests”. But potential tit-for-tat actions by Beijing would be limited, analysts say.

The TikTok logo is seen on a cellphone on Oct 14, 2022, in Boston. (File photo: AP/Michael Dwyer)
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SINGAPORE: As China raises the prospect of retaliation after the United States’ House of Representatives passed legislation that could lead to a TikTok ban in America, analysts say Beijing will have to consider key factors such as the optics and potential economic repercussions in weighing its countermove.
While US-China relations are likely to take a short-term hit should the legislation be signed into law, the overall fallout is expected to be limited, the analysts added.
The Bill passed overwhelmingly in a bipartisan vote in the US House on Wednesday, and will now go before the Senate. It would give the short-video platform’s Chinese parent company ByteDance about six months to sell its controlling stake or the app would be banned in the US.
China hit back on Thursday (Mar 14). "The US should truly respect the principles of a market economy and fair competition (and) stop unjustly suppressing foreign companies," a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson said at a press conference, adding that China would "take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests”.
Meanwhile, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the Bill is contrary to fair competition.
“It puts the US on the opposite side of the principles of fair competition and international economic and trade rules,” said Mr Wang during a daily press briefing on Thursday.
IMPLICATIONS ON US-CHINA RELATIONS
Analysts CNA spoke to stressed that there’s still some way to go before the legislation comes to pass, if at all.
The Bill needs to clear the Senate - where there is uneasiness over the legal and social implications - and be signed by the president before it becomes law. US President Joe Biden has pledged to sign it if it reaches his desk.
If the proposal becomes law, experts agree that US-China relations will take a hit - at least in the short term.
“If (the legislation) passes - and that is a big if - it is likely to veer (the US and China) one step closer to tech decoupling,” said Dr Lim Tai Wei, an adjunct senior fellow at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) East Asian Institute.
The move on TikTok is the latest in a series of actions in Washington to respond to US national security concerns about China, from so-called connected vehicles to advanced artificial intelligence chips.
Analysts have linked this to Washington’s so-called de-risking strategy. In turn, China has been focusing heavily on building up its domestic capabilities and calling on its businesses to embrace “new quality productive forces” as part of a self-sufficiency drive.
Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Department of Political Science believes the US legislation on TikTok, if passed, is probably likely to result in “a war of words” between Beijing and Washington, but little beyond that.
“At any rate, the Bill looks to have ByteDance divest from TikTok, so users may not be as directly affected, especially in the near term,” he added.
The legislation would require ByteDance to either divest its ownership of TikTok within 165 days once the law is enacted or have it banned from the major app stores in the US.
China has previously made its disapproval clear. A Mar 9 op-ed by state news outlet Global Times framed it as “forcing ByteDance to choose between two bottles of poison”.
WILL CHINA RETALIATE?
Potential tit-for-tat actions by China would be limited due to the current restrictions Beijing already has in place, analysts say.
“There are little avenues within the social media field as a countermeasure (for China),” said NUS’ Dr Lim, noting that US social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and YouTube are already unable to operate in China.
While observers agree that Beijing could still turn the screws in other commercial areas, they caution that any action taken by the government could prove revealing.
“If (China) takes retaliatory measures, state action suggests that TikTok and Bytedance may not be purely private actors, as currently claimed,” Dr Chong told CNA.
Another consideration for Beijing is that any reprisal could further chill the investment climate in China, observers note, which would be a further blow to a country that is already dealing with a formidable set of domestic and external challenges.
“Retaliatory measures may also indicate the brittleness of current US-China efforts to stabilise ties,” said Dr Chong.
The vote in the House is the most serious blow to TikTok in an ongoing political battle over allegations the company could collect sensitive user data from its 170 million users in the US and politically censor content.
US government officials have not offered public evidence of the Chinese government using the app for surveillance or propaganda purposes, according to US news outlets.
But there have been several cases in recent years that have stoked concerns over TikTok being used to such an end. On its part, TikTok has repeatedly stated it has not and will not share American user data with the Chinese government.
TikTok CEO Chew Shou Zi has said that TikTok will exercise its legal rights to prevent a ban. The Bill gives the company 165 days to file a legal challenge after it is signed by the president.