Both Trump and Biden won big on Super Tuesday. What’s next?

United States President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump dominated their respective Super Tuesday races, clearing the path to a replay of the 2020 election.

Polls have shown that the historic rematch is one that few Americans are excited about, which could lead to a poor voter turnout in the upcoming presidential contest.

“For both candidates, it does suggest that there could be a turnout issue, and they're going to have to motivate their voters, and build their coalitions,” said Professor Richard Mullaney, executive director of Jacksonville University’s Public Policy Institute.

As a long election campaign kicks off for both parties, analysts said the race to the White House looks set to see more than its usual dose of mudslinging.

“The main theme of their campaigns is going to be: ‘Don't vote for the other guy -- he's dangerous’,” quipped University of Chicago’s Professor Emeritus of political science Charles Lipson.

Meanwhile, both candidates have quickly acted to persuade Nikki Haley’s voters to support their respective camps, a move observers said could be crucial in a tight race come November.  

WILL HALEY ENDORSE TRUMP?

Former South Carolina governor Haley on Wednesday bowed out of the GOP presidential nomination race after Trump defeated her in nearly all states up for grabs on Super Tuesday.

“Haley’s campaign strategy tried to contrast herself from Trump on policy, for example, on Ukraine, spending, and entitlement reforms,” said Prof Mullaney.

“But in the end, Trump's popularity wasn't based as much on policy, as on Donald Trump the person. His popularity with conservative voters, with Evangelicals, and with his base was too much for Haley to overcome.”

In her speech suspending her presidential bid, Haley said it is now up to Trump to earn the votes of Republicans who did not support him.

However, analysts expect Haley to eventually endorse Trump, in part to secure a brighter political future for herself.

“Given her criticism of Trump over the past weeks, it would not have been very credible for her to endorse him today. But as this plays out over time, there's a great incentive (for both sides) to make peace,” Prof Mullaney told CNA’s World Tonight on Thursday (Mar 7).

Prof Lipson added: “It will be hard for Haley to run as a Republican in the future if she doesn't endorse the nominee of her party this year.”

In a closely-fought race, Haley’s supporters, particularly those in battleground states including Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan, could be key to winning the election.

Observers said that while many who voted for Haley in the primaries are ultimately likely to support Trump, considering historical precedent, those on the fence could still swing to Biden’s camp.

ISSUES BOTH CANDIDATES FACE

Both Biden and Trump both face a myriad of issues in convincing voters to elect them, said observers.

At 81 years old, Biden is the US’ oldest president and polls by US media have shown a majority of Americans think he is too old to effectively serve a second term.

Despite a recent annual physical where doctors found him fit for duty, there are growing concerns about his verbal gaffes, coughing and stumbles.

Biden’s apparent reluctance to appear on interviews on major networks – such as skipping the traditional pre-Super Bowl interview for two years in a row – has not helped his case, said Prof Lipson.

“Biden has a huge problem in terms of his health, and the public notices it. He is not the same man he was four years ago when he first ran (for presidency). He's in a much weaker position” he said.

“A lot of the appeals to the Haley's voters will not be so much ‘Donald Trump is absolutely your man’, but rather, ‘Joe Biden is not your man’.”

Polls have shown that voters are also concerned about Trump’s age - 77 - but these are overshadowed by his legal issues. The former president is facing four criminal indictments in four different cities totaling 91 felony counts.

Observers said that while the cases “had practically no impact” in the primaries – considering his crushing triumph, they could still plague him in the upcoming race.

“While his base voters will not waver, independent voters and moderates might, as some of his cases play out (in courts in the next few months), and they certainly could have an impact come November,” said Prof Mullaney.

Immigration is another pressing issue. Since reversing some of Trump’s restrictions on immigration after taking office in 2021, Biden has faced record high illegal immigration rates that have fuelled anger even from voters living thousands of miles away from the US-Mexico border.

Economy and employment, policies on Ukraine and Israel, as well as the climate crisis are other top voter concerns.

Observers said that despite both candidates’ dominant victories for Super Tuesday, they have much work to do ahead of November.

Some polls have put both head-to-head while others have put Trump leading by a small margin, with about a third of voters undecided, planning to vote for someone else, or not planning to vote at all.

With Biden and Trump each having won the White House through razor-thin margins in key states, each vote counts.

“In politics, it's often a battle on turnout, and come November, each side needs to turn out their voters if they want to be successful,” said Prof Mullaney.