Indonesia Elections 2024: As most populous province, West Java could tip the scales
Home to about 50 million people and with the highest number of registered voters at close to 36 million, West Java is a pivotal battleground in the elections.
Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto speaking at a rally in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia. (Photo: CNA/Wisnu Agung Prasetyo)
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WEST JAVA: A stable economy, more job opportunities and equal treatment of citizens are among the aspirations on the wish list of West Java voters for Indonesia’s next president.
“The leader I want is aware of these three things: awareness of position, awareness of conditions and awareness of the situation,” said one resident Imam Iskandar.
West Java, Indonesia’s most populous province, is often included among the top priorities of political parties in canvassing for votes.
It is home to about 50 million people and has the highest number of registered voters at close to 36 million, making it a pivotal battleground for Wednesday’s (Feb 14) elections.
The province is also unique in terms of the high plurality of support for parties, observers told CNA.
West Java typically gives candidates the opportunity to raise the number of votes that they previously may have lost, or strengthen wins where they may have had a strong support base.
PRABOWO STRONGHOLD
At the end of a 75-day campaign period, multiple nationwide polls have indicated that Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto has a comfortable lead over his competitors.
It is not his first rodeo – Mr Prabowo vied for the nation’s highest office in the 2014 and 2019 elections, but lost both elections to President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi. Despite losing, he was the more popular choice in his stronghold of West Java, securing 59 per cent over Mr Widodo both times.
This time, Mr Prabowo, whose running mate is Mr Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, sought not only to preserve that dominance, but also strengthen it.
Since Mr Gibran's addition to his ticket was announced, Mr Prabowo's rating has soared to a double-digit lead over the other two presidential candidates Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo.
“The strategy of the campaign team is to strengthen the winnings as much as possible, so that in these final seconds – looking at the survey, we are leading. Hopefully, we can achieve a 60 per cent target. If West Java can get 60 per cent, victory in one round is very possible,” said head of the Prabowo-Gibran West Java Campaign Team Ridwan Kamil.
With three presidential hopefuls on the ballot, the current electoral rules require a candidate to win at least 50 per cent of the national vote and at least 20 per cent of the vote in each province to avoid a second-round runoff in June.
EFFECT OF SWING VOTES
With every candidate looking to attract voters in West Java, one group is keeping the presidential hopefuls optimistic – swing voters, who make up over 30 per cent of the electorate.
According to a poll last year, these citizens said they are keeping their choices open and may stay undecided on their chosen candidates up to voting day.
"You can have all the surveys but at the end of the day it’s about grassroots, it’s about the people,” said Mr Arsjad Rasjid, head of the Ganjar-Mahfud campaign team.
He added that even the last hours of campaigning were crucial in converting undecided and swing voters.
With fluctuating support and diversity in the choices of political parties, all party candidates have a voice in the province.
However, winning the popular vote in West Java may not automatically signal winning the elections, as seen in Mr Prabowo's case in the previous two elections.
“Sometimes what we face is that voters choose not logically but emotionally. So, this is what we have to shift; that they must also choose with conscience and common sense. That (they realise) the government programme does not belong to any one presidential candidate. That it is a government programme, whoever is the winner will continue it,” said Mr Haru Suandharu, head of the Anies-Muhaimin West Java campaign team
Many voters in West Java want a leader who can walk the talk and to turn the manifesto that they have campaigned for into a reality.
