Analysis: Jokowi’s ally now leads Indonesia’s Golkar party. How may this benefit the outgoing president?

JAKARTA: Indonesia’s second-largest political party Golkar on Wednesday (Aug 21) appointed newly minted Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia as its chairman, in a move analysts say will allow President Joko Widodo to wield political influence even after he steps down later in October. 

Mr Bahlil - known to be a key ally of Mr Widodo - garnered unanimous backing from party delegates during a national congress held the day before in Jakarta. On Aug 21, Mr Bahlil was officially declared the party’s new chairman. 

The chairman of the Golkar National Conference steering committee, Mr Adies Kadir, was quoted as saying by local media that all provincial and district chapters of the party had pledged their support for Mr Bahlil to lead the party for the next five years.

In a Cabinet reshuffle on Monday, Mr Widodo - with just two months shy of the end of his presidency - had appointed Mr Bahlil to be the new minister of energy and mineral resources. 

Mr Bahlil - formerly the country’s investment minister - had played a key role in the campaign of President-elect Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka in February’s presidential election. The latter is Mr Widodo’s elder son. 

“The first agenda of the Golkar party is to ensure the success of (the incoming) Prabowo-Gibran government and be at the forefront in executing all government programmes,” Mr Bahlil said upon his appointment as Golkar chair on Wednesday. 

Observers whom CNA spoke to said that Golkar has always been aligned with the ruling government of the day, and Mr Bahlil’s appointment bodes well for the party as he is close to both Mr Widodo and Mr Prabowo. 

They added that Mr Bahlil’s role as chairman of Golkar will also enable him to appoint Mr Widodo as the head of the party’s advisory board once the president steps down from office, thus allowing him to retain political influence. 

CHAIRMANSHIP A “STRATEGIC POSITION” 

Political analyst Ujang Komarudin of Al Azhar University Indonesia told CNA that Mr Bahlil’s appointment as Golkar chairman must have gotten the blessing of Mr Widodo. 

“The chairman of Golkar must have a strategic position, (Mr) Bahlil fulfills that requirement, because he is now an extension of Jokowi,” said Mr Ujang, referring to a commonly used name of Mr Widodo. 

He added: “In this context, whoever the president is, Golkar will always be under the guidance of the president. So later when Prabowo becomes president, the Golkar chairman must be close to him too.” 

Political analyst Aditya Perdana, meanwhile, believes that the shock resignation of Golkar’s former chairman Airlangga Hartarto was likely at the urging of  “two powerful people” - namely Mr Widodo and Mr Prabowo - in order for Golkar to be able to help them in future. 

“So they need a firm (person leading) Golkar, a figure who can support them in the next five years, especially Mr Prabowo,” Mr Aditya - a political lecturer with the University of Indonesia - told CNA. 

Mr Airlangga stepped down from the party post on Aug 10, in a move that analysts had previously said looks set to benefit Mr Widodo.

Shortly after Mr Airlangga's resignation, Golkar announced it would hold a national meeting to appoint a new chairman. The meeting was originally scheduled to take place in December but was instead held on Aug 20 and 21.

Mr Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita, the party’s interim chairman, denied that the two-day congress was a mere formality to appoint Mr Bahlil as the new chairman. 

“This is not a (mere) formality. This is a constitutional agenda that must be implemented by the party. The party needs a definitive leader to prepare for the political agenda ahead, especially the regional elections,” Mr Agus told IDN Times.

Meanwhile, political observer Dr Cecep Hidayat from the University of Indonesia, said that Mr Bahlil's close ties with Mr Widodo and Mr Prabowo will play a key role in the successful transition to the next government.

He believes that Mr Bahlil may be rewarded with a higher ministerial position within Mr Prabowo’s incoming administration. 

“Bahlil could fill a relatively higher post, such as (that of a) coordinating minister,” Dr Cecep told CNA.

Meanwhile, a statement by Golkar politician Ali Mochtar Ngabalin on Aug 20 that party cadres have requested for Mr Widodo to be chairman of Golkar's Board of Trustees could be a sign of things to come.

The Board of Trustees is tasked with providing advice and input to Golkar party officials in determining various party policies.

Golkar members told local media that any decision to appoint someone as chairman of its Board of Trustees lies with the party’s newly-elected chairman - Mr Bahlil. 

And if Mr Widodo does indeed join Golkar after he steps down from the presidency in October, analysts believe that the party will provide him with a vehicle to extend his political influence outside the palace. 

In the past, this advisory position was held by former Indonesian President Soeharto during the New Order period until he resigned in 1998. And although not the chairman of the party, Mr Soeharto had absolute authority in determining Golkar’s party policy then.

Mr Agung Baskoro, a political analyst at the consultancy firm Trias Politika Strategis, stressed that a potential move by Mr Widodo to join Golkar will help maintain his political clout and strategic bargaining positions intact. 

“Jokowi is a strong figure, has a clear mass base, (and) his track record is quite good at the executive level,” Mr Agung told CNA.