Indonesia Elections 2024: Anies, Prabowo or Ganjar? Why East Java could decide the presidency

JOMBANG, East Java: Hundreds of people from all over Indonesia visit the Islamic boarding school Tebuireng daily located in East Java’s Jombang city, paying respects and chanting prayers at the tombs of several famous people buried there.

Key among them are those of Indonesia’s fourth president Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, and his grandfather Hasyim Asy’ari, who was founder of Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the world’s biggest Islamic organisation.

Hasyim also established Tebuireng in 1899, which has since spawned some noteworthy alumni, such as Gus Dur as well as Indonesia’s current vice-president Ma’ruf Amin. Others include the late Prof Ali Mustafa Yaqub, who was from 2005 to 2016 the Grand Imam of Istiqlal Mosque in Jakarta, which is the biggest in Southeast Asia.

Tebuireng is located on a 10ha parcel of land in Jombang city, which is often dubbed the Islamic boarding school students' city due to the numerous Islamic boarding schools located there.

Given its history and influence on modern Indonesia, presidential and vice presidential candidates would typically visit Tebuireng near elections. This time, it is no exception. 

All three presidential candidates - former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo - have done so in the past few months, while East Java native Mahfud MD, running mate of Mr Ganjar, has visited the place twice recently.

“Some conveyed their vision and mission. But the visits were especially to strengthen relationships as we know each other,” said Mr Abdul Hakim Mahfudz, also called Gus Kikin, the head of Tebuireng. 

“We also exchanged views. And I think one of the reasons (for their visits) is because we have many alumni everywhere, some of whom are influential,” he added.

Gus Kikin added that the candidates believe if the head of Tebuireng endorses a particular candidate, its alumni will do the same, though he stressed to CNA that Tebuireng has never endorsed any candidate publicly.

Tebuireng’s importance is a reflection too of East Java’s significance in the upcoming elections.

The province has 41 million people, of whom about 31.4 million of them are eligible to vote in Indonesia’s upcoming presidential and legislative elections on Valentine’s Day. 

This is equivalent to about 15 per cent of the 204.8 million eligible voters nationwide, making East Java the second-largest voter pool after West Java out of 38 provinces in Indonesia.

Mr Hari Fitrianto, a political lecturer with Surabaya's Airlangga University, said: “East Java has always been considered an important province during elections to gain votes because it has the second biggest number of votes after West Java."

But unlike West Java, which is a stronghold for Mr Prabowo, East Java is more of a swing province, making it a key battleground in winning the presidency.  

All three contesting pairings are all deemed equally strong in East Java, making it harder to predict who will win in the province, said Mr Surokim Abdussalam, a communication and politics lecturer at the University of Trunojoyo Madura.

The pairs include: Mr Anies and his running mate Muhaimin Iskandar, who heads the Islamic-leaning National Awakening Party (PKB); Mr Prabowo and Solo mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who’s also son of President Joko Widodo; Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud, who resigned from his position as the country’s coordinating minister for political, legal and security affairs a few days ago.

“It is very dynamic in East Java because the people are heterogeneous; they come from different cultural backgrounds. They are not as homogeneous as people in Central or West Java,” said Mr Surokim.

“Perhaps this is why East Java is also often considered the province which will decide the presidential winner, especially also because many national figures hail from East Java.”

EAST JAVA’S IMPORTANCE

East Java’s importance is heightened for this election given the first three-cornered presidential fight since 2009 and the respective powerbases of the three candidate pairings.

To win the upcoming election, it is key to secure Java, where more than half of Indonesia’s eligible voters are spread across the island’s six provinces: Jakarta, Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta.

This is because a pair must receive more than 50 per cent of the votes to secure the presidency outright, which is tougher in a three-horse race compared to a straight fight, said analysts.

Out of those 50 per cent, a pair must have at least 20 per cent of votes in more than half of the 38 Indonesian provinces. 

“As long as a pair secures the majority of Java, it is already half of the total voters in Indonesia,” said Mdm Titi Anggraini, an election law lecturer at the University of Indonesia.

For now, West Java, with 35.7 million voters, is predicted to go to Mr Prabowo as he also won there in 2019.

Former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo is expected to win in his powerbase province and its neighbouring Yogyakarta, which has a combined total of about 31 million voters. 

Former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan is believed to win the hearts of Jakartans and people in the neighbouring Banten province, which make up 17 million voters. 

As for East Java, a latest survey released on Feb 1 by pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia on the candidates’ chances in the province showed that Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran have the highest electability with 56.2 per cent.

They are followed by Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud with 19.9 per cent. Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin came in last with 15.7 per cent. 

Meanwhile, pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia released its survey on Jan 5 which showed that Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran are leading in East Java with an electability of 46.7 per cent.

Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud came in second with 26.6 per cent, while Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin's electability was 16.2 per cent. 

For the record, all past winning presidential candidates have secured East Java.

For instance, Jokowi, who is a member of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) won with 65 per cent of the votes in the province at the last election in 2019 against Mr Prabowo, who secured about 34 per cent.

In 2014, the race between them was tighter, with Jokowi winning 53 per cent in East Java against Mr Prabowo, who secured 46 per cent.

Jokowi’s predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono also won in the East Java province in 2009, and the 2004 election, which marked the first direct presidential polls in Indonesia.

Analysts CNA spoke to said that to win East Java, it is crucial to get the backing of Islamic groups which dominate the region as they can influence voters.

Members of NU are called Nahdliyin, and in 2022, the head of NU Yahya Cholil Staquf claimed that almost 60 per cent of Muslims in Indonesia are members of NU, which equals about 150 million people.

"We know there is a political force of the Islamic belief or the politics of Islamic boarding school students, which includes Nahdliyins, the largest members of which are in East Java,” said Mr Hari from the University of Airlangga.

"So I think East Java will continue to be an arena for the struggle for influence between presidential candidates and political parties," he opined. 

While PDI-P and PKB have both been strong in the province, the pairing of Mr Prabowo with Mr Gibran has made the power struggle in the area more intense.

Jokowi is widely popular there, and his supporters are believed to vote for Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran since they are campaigning to continue Jokowi’s programmes.

Other factors determining the race in East Java include which candidates the local politicians would be backing, said political analyst Mr Hari.

East Java governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa and her deputy Emil Dardak are both endorsing Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran.

Mdm Khofifah is a senior leader in NU, and her backing of Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran may be pivotal given that she also helped Jokowi win East Java in 2019.

As governor, her approval rating is about 85 per cent, according to Indikator Politik Indonesia. No governor in Indonesia has an approval rating this high, said Burhanuddin Muhtadi, executive director of Indikator Politik Indonesia.

HOW CANDIDATES HAVE BEEN WOOING EAST JAVA

The candidates have been campaigning heavily in the battleground to ensure they would win in East Java. 

Mr Prabowo was in Malang on Thursday (Feb 1), while Mr Ganjar was in the same city on Jan 30. Mr Anies and his running mate Mr Muhaimin were both in Madura on Jan 31.  

Unlike non-Java provinces, which candidates usually only visit once and only the province's capital city, the three pairings have visited East Java numerous times during the past few months, each person doing so at least five times and ensuring they visit as many cities and regencies as possible. 

"We are aware that East Java is one of the provinces where many votes are at stake,” said Mr Thoriqul Haq, who heads the campaign for the Anies-Muhaimin pairing in East Java. 

"All three pairings are politically influential in East Java. But for us, Anies-Muhaimin, we have the support of PKB,” he told CNA, referring to Mr Muhaimin’s leadership in PKB.

"We have a cultural network, figures who, from the start, have been part of PKB. Islamic boarding school figures, NU, and cultural figures have long been an important part of PKB's victory in the legislative and presidential elections."

Mr Anwar Sadad, head of the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) party in East Java, said their strategy to win is to meet as many people as possible in the province, especially influential ones. Mr Prabowo heads Gerindra.

“In the past two, three years, Mr Prabowo has intensively been visiting East Java and meeting the people,” said Mr Anwar.

But he admits that the pairing of Mr Prabowo with Mr Gibran, who represents Jokowi, gives them an extra boost to win. 

“The decision to take Mr Gibran (as VP running mate) was strategic,” he told CNA.

While the two other camps have opted to take vice presidential candidates representing Nahdliyins, they wanted to fill the void in East Java by taking a figure who represents a nationalist, said Mr Anwar.

“Mr Gibran is the son of Mr Jokowi, a nationalist. So we will fill in that void,” he said. 

Mr Budi Sulistyono Kanang, head of the campaigning team for Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud in East Java, said they will rely on social media and their programmes to win. 

“The world today is all about social media. Secondly, there are many programmes which we want to convey via national television,” he said. 

They also rely on Mr Mahfud’s popularity as a native East Java figure, given that he was born on the island of Madura. 

“When else can the people of Madura have a vice president who is one of them? So far, there has not been anyone,” he stated. 

Mr Budi said the party knows that some Jokowi loyalists may move from PDI-P and Mr Ganjar to the Prabowo-Gibran camp. 

He added that Mr Ganjar’s and PDI-P’s popularity were influenced by Jokowi’s support for the former and the party, until the “shock” development of Mr Gibran teaming up with Mr Prabowo.

The pairing surprised Indonesia as Jokowi was deemed to have supported Mr Ganjar through the president’s attendance at an April event where the PDI-P unveiled the former Central Java governor as its presidential candidate.

However, Jokowi’s support of Mr Ganjar was in question after he allowed his son Gibran, despite being a PDI-P member, to be a running mate for Mr Prabowo. Since then, Jokowi has seemingly endorsed Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran.

“People were also shocked, so we now need to show what Indonesia truly needs,” he concluded.

WHAT POTENTIAL VOTERS THINK 

For now, some voters in East Java appear split on whom they would vote for.

In Tebuireng, one of its 3,500 students is Nasywa Maulida, who had just finished class when CNA met her during a visit in November.

The 17-year-old will be a first-time voter in the upcoming election.

When asked whether she knew who are running, she named the presidential candidates. 

“I’ve heard there are Mr Ganjar Pranowo, Mr Prabowo and Mr Anies Baswedan. But who their running mates are, I don’t know yet,” she said. 

Even though presidential candidates had visited her school, she claimed there was not enough information on the candidates available at the school. 

“Because we only get information from television. And we only watch TV once a week on our day off. And even then, sometimes we don’t watch the news.

“We watch something else, so we don’t really know the latest development outside (of the boarding school),” she explained. 

Twelve-grader Mohammad Hilmi, also a Tebuireng student, claims he does not know much about the elections.

“I don’t have time (to follow the news),” he said. But he claims he will cast his vote. 

“Maybe I will find out their track record because they all have leadership experience like Ganjar Pranowo, who led Central Java, Anies Baswedan, who led Jakarta, and Prabowo, who was with the military,” the 18-year-old said. 

Have his teachers not given him information about the election? 

“No,” he told CNA. “Well, maybe just a bit. They said there will be a few pairs.”

Well aware that East Java would be crucial to win the presidency, Mr Anies is running with Jombang-native Mr Muhaimin, also a NU member. 

Meanwhile, Mr Ganjar chose Mr Mahfud for the latter’s links to his Madura birthplace in East Java and strong ties with NU.

When CNA visited Madura in November, the streets were filled with banners of Mr Mahfud. 

Yet, people CNA interviewed said it does not automatically mean they will vote for him and Mr Ganjar. 

Mr Mohammad Hasin, 53, a barbershop owner in Madura, said he does not yet know whom he will vote for. 

“I just want whoever will lead to make Indonesia prosperous. I don’t earn a lot. I used to earn 5 million rupiah per month (US$322), but now I just get about 2 million rupiah monthly, which is not even regular. That’s not enough,” said the father of three.

Pedicab driver Mudiri, who goes by one name, claims he will vote for Mr Mahfud. 

“I will vote for Mr Mahfud because he is from Madura,” said Mr Mudiri. 

He also lamented how prices continuously rise in Indonesia, making it difficult for him to make ends meet. He wants the next government to change this.

Over in Surabaya, the capital of East Java, hotel receptionist Yunita Dian Absary said she is still confused about whom to vote for. 

“Because there are many controversies. Initially, I was leaning towards someone, but then there were many dramas and conflicts, so now I have to wait and see.

Among the controversies is how 36-year-old Mr Gibran was able to run only after the Constitutional Court had expanded the candidacy requirements for presidential and vice presidential hopefuls to include elected officials younger than 40, which was the minimum age required. 

The Constitutional Court was at the time headed by Mr Gibran’s uncle, resulting in some to claim the decision was unethical.

“I will look at how everything evolves, the candidates’ mission and vision, whether they are realistic or not,” she said.

ANALYSTS’ SUGGESTIONS TO WINNING

Political analyst Hari Fitrianto said that to win, the candidates should not forget about the people and that many elements are involved, such as their age, education, income, religion, and sociocultural aspects. 

“And if we look at the demographics, the young voters, who make up more than 50 per cent of the eligible voters, are concerned about specific problems.

“So the way they campaign must be adjusted to how they think and speak,” he said.

Mr Surokim believes the candidates must ensure their campaigning strategies are strong both online and offline: they must meet the people on the ground while maintaining a positive social media image.

“But the people in East Java very much appreciate visits from the candidates. This requires a lot of energy,” he noted. 

Prof Kacung Marijan, deputy chancellor of the University of Nahdlatul Ulama Surabaya, has specific suggestions for each pair. 

Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin should try to get as many NU votes, which is the basis of Mr Muhaimin’s party.

Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran must maintain the support they already have, including strengthening ties with the NU communities in East Java. 

As for Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud, they need to optimise PDI-P’s network and their Islamic coalition party, the United Development Party (PPP), whose basis is NU. 

At the end of the day, Prof Kacung asserted what everyone must do to win. 

“Everyone has the potential to win. So everyone must be pro-active because nobody wants to lose.”