CNA Explains: What is making Indonesians so unhappy about a proposed change to elections laws?

JAKARTA: Thousands of Indonesians continued to protest at key locations in Jakarta and other parts of the country on Friday (Aug 23) as security forces responded with tear gas and water cannons.

This was despite a U-turn on what triggered the protests - a parliamentary decision to overturn a Constitutional Court ruling on age eligibility and electoral thresholds for upcoming local elections. 

WHAT PROMPTED THE PROTESTS?

On Wednesday, Indonesia's top court ruled that parties would not need a minimum 20 per cent of representation in their regional assemblies in order to field a candidate. The court also retained a minimum age limit for candidates.

However, within a day of the ruling, Indonesia’s parliament tabled an emergency motion to reverse these changes. A vote on the fast-tracked legislation was postponed on Thursday because there were not enough members present.

If the change in election laws had passed, it would have paved the way for outgoing president Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) youngest son, 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep, to run in November’s local elections.

The current minimum age limit of 30 for candidates is preventing him from running in a regional contest in Central Java.

It would also have blocked popular former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan from running again for the influential post against a candidate backed by incoming president Prabowo Subianto’s coalition.

And the decision would have had a far-reaching impact on the country’s democracy, observers noted.

Even after an announcement that lawmakers have shelved plans to change election laws,  demonstrations continued.

WHY ARE INDONESIANS UNHAPPY?

Protesters have vowed to continue to put pressure on the government.

One of the reasons many Indonesians are unhappy with the current situation is the belief that Mr Jokowi is trying to insert his son into the political process, said analyst James Chin. 

This is on top of his older son, Mr Gibran Rakabuming Raka, assuming the role of the country’s vice-president come October, said the professor of Asian Studies at University of Tasmania.

Mr Gibran was only able to contest as Mr Prabowo’s vice-presidential running mate in February’s presidential election because of another Constitutional Court decision. 

The court, which was then led by Mr Widodo’s brother-in-law Anwar Usman, ruled that the minimum age requirement of 40 need not apply to all election candidates, paving the way for Mr Gibran, 36, to join the race.

“If the second son gets in, basically what you will have is the making of a new political dynasty in Indonesia,” Prof Chin told CNA’s Asia Now. 

“Many people are unhappy that they're trying to bend the law twice in order to help Jokowi to set up a political dynasty.”

People were surprised that Mr Jokowi was willing to “pull a stunt” like this, as they believed he would be more worried about his legacy, said Prof Chin.

Mr Jokowi will step down in October after 10 years in power. 

Prof Chin noted that his legacy was already somewhat tarnished by his open support for Mr Subianto, who was his son’s running mate.

“He's always projected himself as somebody who believes in democracy, trying to put Indonesia back on the democratic path and he's also played out the fact that he's not part of the Indonesian political establishment,” he said.

“By doing this, he is sort of showing his true colours, that he is part of the establishment, and he's also interested in building a political dynasty, so I think a lot of people were taken aback.”

WHAT MIGHT MR JOKOWI BE TRYING TO DO?

Describing the Jokowi-Prabowo alliance as “tenuous”, Professor Vedi Hadiz, director of the Asia Institute at University of Melbourne, said that once Mr Prabowo assumes the top job, Mr Jokowi’s influence will be significantly eroded.

Prof Hadiz, who teaches Asian studies, explained what might be at work.

“All of the patronage networks that (Mr Jokowi) has built potentially could shift to Prabowo’s direction. So what he needs to do is install as many people as possible in key positions who are loyal to him to make sure that he has leverage on Prabowo,” he told CNA’s Asia First.

He noted that Mr Jokowi also succeeded in ousting the former chairman of Golkar party, the second-largest political party in the country, and replaced him with a loyalist.

“He's clearly positioning himself so that he does not become redundant, obsolete come October 20, when Prabowo becomes president,” said Prof Hadiz.

While Mr Jokowi has traditionally enjoyed high approval ratings, a lot of his actions have become “so blatant in its intention of power-grabbing and intention of maintaining his power and influence”, noted Prof Hadiz.

He added that Indonesians who had tolerated his past actions have lost their patience for such moves.

“We have to see whether this eruption of protest is a one-off that, once this particular controversy has passed, whether it builds up into something more consistent, where some sort of civil society-based monitoring of the elites can take place,” he said.

“But the history of Indonesia recently shows that it's very difficult to maintain these things, partly because the opposition itself is highly fragmented and not very well-organised.”

CAN THE LAWS STILL BE CHANGED?

Registration for regional elections opens on Tuesday (Aug 27), and the chances of parliament reconvening before that are “virtually zero”, said Prof Chin. 

There is another deterrent for the legislature, he said: The way the issue has resonated with Indonesia’s young. 

“If they (the government) try to pull a fast one, I suspect nobody is willing to pay the political price,” he said.

While passing the law before Tuesday “does seem to be logistically and logically impossible”, the reason that the protesters in Indonesia have continued to watch what is happening is that there is a “history of high-level connivance amongst the political elites”, said Prof Hadiz.

“They don't trust anything that comes out of the mouth of the leadership, of parliament. So basically, they’re standing by to make sure that no sneak attempt to hold a session will take place,” he said.