Myanmar’s military marks Armed Forces Day amid continued violence

SINGAPORE: Myanmar is saddled with multiple challenges as it marks Armed Forces Day on Wednesday (Mar 27), from fending off rebels' drone strikes to the need to refresh its weaponry and boost troop numbers. 

This comes as the military starts recruiting civilians next month, after recently rolling out a dormant enlistment law.

Typically, on Armed Forces Day, Myanmar showcases its modern weaponry and tactical capabilities, and boasts of its ability to handle external threats. 

However, the country continues to struggle with violence domestically. 

DEVELOPING ITS MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Following the coup in 2021, the military has been accused of turning its guns towards civilians, from launching airstrikes to setting villages on fire.

Since then, Armed Forces Day has been seen as the stage which sets the tone for violence, said observers. 

For instance, on Armed Forces Day in 2021, nearly two months after the coup, violence peaked in Myanmar. The army was accused of killing about 100 people across the country that day. 

The Myanmar military and an ethnic armed group were also engaged in violence, leading some civilians to flee into neighbouring Thailand. 

The following year, Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing vowed to “annihilate” terrorist groups. 

During the Armed Forces Day last year, he reiterated that warning to deal with his opponents.

Myanmar army's plan has always been to develop its military capabilities, including buying better weapons and recruiting more soldiers.

But such efforts hit a roadblock after the coup.

The army's total strength is estimated to be about 200,000 to 300,000. 

But the number of troops is depleting due to casualties in the battlefield and through defections.

RECRUITMENT OF CIVILIAN SOLDIERS

Three years ago, right after the military coup, army chief Min Aung Hlaing had hinted at conscription but that idea did not take off until earlier this year.

On Feb 10, the Myanmar army announced plans to enlist more soldiers by imposing a mandatory conscription law from mid-April, stressing the need for citizens to safeguard the independence of the country. 

All men between 18 and 35 years old and all women aged between 18 and 27 will have to serve up to two years in the military if called up. 

There will be a higher age limit of 45 for men and 35 for women – and a longer three-year term of service – for some vocations such as doctors and engineers. 

The length of service can be extended to five years during a state of emergency, a situation Myanmar has been in since the coup.

The move has since led young and middle-aged men and women to desperately find ways to flee the country. 

However, the Myanmar army could step up ways to prevent that from happening, said security expert Min Zaw Oo. 

“If people are leaving the airport, they have to go through screening. So the people who are already in the conscription list, they won't be able to leave the country. So that is one thing that they might do,” said Dr Min Zaw Oo, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, which implements research and analysis on security issues and the peace process.

“And even in domestic airlines, buying tickets nowadays requires endorsement from local authorities. So these are part of the restrictions the current regime may enforce on the young people to prevent them from leaving the country.”

DRONES ON THE BATTLEFIELD

Even as the military attempts to tighten its grip, army chief Min Aung Hlaing is facing rising demands from his supporters to step down. 

The 67-year-old's leadership has been in question, after a series of battlefield defeats for the army in a sweeping offensive by rebel groups that started in October last year, dubbed Operation 1027.

But observers are not expecting any big change for now.

"Probability-wise, that kind of mutiny, we may not see at this point,” said Dr Min Zaw Oo. 

“But the situation could change very quickly in the military, the situation could change very quickly among the senior leadership.”

In another move that could further weaken senior general Min Aung Hlaing and his army's position, rebels have opened a new frontier of warfare through modified drones.

“Some of these drones are originally intended for sports, or as a leisure item, and they have been modified to carry explosives. And what this does to the battle scene is it changes the nature of warfare and the doctrine itself,” said Mr Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst at intelligence firm Janes.

“Because a lot of the Myanmar army's forces are trained in conventional warfare. They have not been indoctrinated to deal with this kind of commercially available drones that are now being modified for military use.”

Military services around the world are now studying ways to deal with such emerging threats, said observers. They added that for the Myanmar army, the question is not just how they will handle these challenges but also how they will stay relevant in the country.