Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang faces uphill battle ahead with presidential race
The KMT has enlisted party heavyweights to rally around its presidential candidate Hou You-yi, but recent opinion polls showed the New Taipei City mayor in last place in the three-way race.
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi delivers a speech during a press conference in Taipei, Taiwan, Wednesday, May 17, 2023. (AP/Chiang Ying-ying)
NEW TAIPEI CITY: Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party faces an uphill battle as it looks to unseat the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in next January’s presidential election.
The KMT has enlisted party heavyweights to rally around its presidential candidate Hou You-yi, but recent opinion polls showed the New Taipei City mayor in last place in the three-way race.
The 64-year-old is even trailing behind the relatively young Taiwan People's Party (TPP), led by former Taipei City mayor Ko Wen-je.
Mr Hou had voiced opposition to both Taiwanese independence and Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula. Instead, he said he would “create a more peaceful and prosperous future for Taiwan” during a rally in May.
However, his stance on cross-strait relations has not struck a chord with voters, and he is facing major hurdles in the presidential race.
LOW APPROVAL RATING
The party held its national congress on Sunday (Jul 23), where members officially nominated Mr Hou as KMT’s 2024 presidential candidate.
This is despite his approval rating plunging to below 20 per cent since his name was thrown into the hat in May, according to various polls.
The party also introduced its legislative candidates at the event.
“We don't think Hou You-yi is ready to be a presidential candidate,” said Mr Arthur Wang, a spokesperson from Taipei-based think-tank Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association.
“He continues to have problems with campaign policies like international affairs, energy issues and crisis management.”
Observers said one of Mr Hou’s biggest weaknesses is his lack of media savviness, which has caused him to lose touch with younger voters.
Recent polls suggest that more than 70 per cent of KMT’s supporters have flocked to the TPP.
Despite being established just four years ago, the tiny TPP holds five seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, making it the third largest party in the government.
Its presidential candidate Mr Ko is second in opinion polls, and is particularly popular with younger voters seeking an alternative to the pan-green coalition headed by the DPP and the pan-blue coalition led by the KMT.
SPLITS WITHIN KMT
Aside from dwindling public support, Mr Hou has also been losing backing from within his own party, with dissenting voices calling for his replacement.
Among them is lawmaker Cheng Li-wun, who said that the century-old party faces the risk of losing its political relevance.
“KMT is facing a very big crisis right now. Mr Hou’s poll numbers are very low,” she said.
“Many of our supporters have switched their support to TPP’s Ko and Foxconn founder Terry Gou. We all have a deep sense of crisis. If we don't resolve this crisis, we’re going to be marginalised.”
Billionaire businessman Mr Gou had sought to become KMT’s nominee for president but lost the bid to Mr Hou.
There is speculation that Mr Gou may run as an independent and further split the votes between KMT supporters.
Despite facing one of its worst crises in more than a century, KMT chairman Eric Chu remains steadfast, saying he hopes to unify factions and consolidate support for Mr Hou.
AN UPHILL BATTLE
Amid its efforts to shore up support for its presidential hopeful, the party recently formed a new campaign team aiming to boost Mr Hou's popularity.
However, analysts said it will be a tough assignment, especially with DPP presidential candidate William Lai leading the polls with more than 35 per cent in support rating.
The ruling party is pulling out all the stops to rule the island for a third consecutive term. If it succeeds, the DPP will be the first party to do so since the first public vote for presidential election took place in 1996.
If the KMT hopes to thwart the DPP’s ambitions, observers said it needs to team up with the TPP in order to win the election.
“If Mr Hou is to win, he must form an alliance with the non-green camp (DPP). If Mr Hou faces off with Mr Lai, the only option for Mr Hou is to get Mr Ko and Mr Gou on board in order to have a shot at the presidency,” said Mr Wang.
However, neither side has shown any sign of willingness to work with the other.
The KMT said Mr Hou would not run on the same ticket with Mr Ko as his running mate, making it more difficult for the opposition to win.
While the party has put up a show of unity to the outsiders, analysts said it is struggling with factional infighting.
For Mr Hou to pick up momentum in the race to the 2024 presidential elections, observers said the party must first unify the divided factions for the uphill battle ahead.
