US dollar flat against peers after softer-than-expected inflation data
An employee holds U.S. dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan
NEW YORK, Sept 30 : The dollar was flat against major currencies on Wednesday following a smaller-than-expected increase in US inflation, which reduced market bets on an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The dollar has been strengthening in tandem with rising US Treasury yields on growing expectations of more Fed rate hikes amid inflation driven by higher oil prices. The greenback is still on track for monthly gains against the euro, Swiss franc and the pound sterling.
But the dollar pared some of those gains following the data before recovering as US Treasury yields fell initially across the board. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last down 0.4 basis points at 4.885 per cent.
The euro was flat at $1.133050. The single currency is still headed for a monthly loss against the dollar after two consecutive months of gains.
"We can't tell if the revised PCE data by itself or if other factors were responsible for a softer-than-expected print, which initially caused bonds to rally and yields to come down and the dollar to weaken," said John Velis, FX and macro strategist at BNY.
"We had some strong GDP data: the long end of the yield curve has kind of gone back up and front end is still lower so the curve is steeper. So the 2-year yield has come down to reflect lower expectations of an October rate hike and the dollar has come down in tandem."
US Commerce Department data showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 per cent last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 0.4 per cent.
Traders are now pricing a 37 per cent probability of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 70 per cent a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
"Today's softer PCE report, following (Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John) Williams' pushback against the urgency of another hike, has prompted a meaningful reduction in expectations for consecutive Fed rate increases," said Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group.
"That repricing is pulling Treasury yields lower and narrowing the dollar's yield advantage, giving the latest wave of dollar selling a clear fundamental catalyst."
Oil prices rose and were on track for a big monthly gain in September as US-Iran talks aimed at ending the war stalled. The Brent November futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, rose 0.92 per cent to settle at $103.53 a barrel.
The dollar was also flat at 157.34 against the yen. It was up 0.26 per cent at 0.83575 versus the Swiss franc and on track for the second straight month of gains.
Sterling strengthened 0.26 per cent to $1.3265 but was set for a monthly loss against the dollar, ending two consecutive months of gains.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was flat at 101.47. It is still headed for a monthly gain in September, snapping two straight months of losses.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar weakened 0.57 per cent versus the greenback to $0.6948, and the kiwi weakened 0.09 per cent versus the greenback to $0.5635.
