Indonesia inflation seen picking up to 2.97% in May, April trade surplus shrinking
A vendor waits for customers at a traditional market in Jakarta, Indonesia, January 2, 2023. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana
JAKARTA, May 29 : Indonesia's annual inflation rate likely accelerated in May to 2.97 per cent, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, closer to the upper end of the central bank's target range amid rising prices of non-subsidised fuel, airfares and cooking oil.
Following are details from the survey for Indonesia's inflation rate in May, its trade performance in April and context about the economic data:
• The poll's median forecast for May's annual core inflation rate was 2.52 per cent, slightly quicker than the 2.44 per cent recorded in April.
• The central bank targets inflation within a range of 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2026 and 2027.
• There were 14 respondents in the Reuters survey for headline inflation and 12 for core inflation.
• Eleven economists in the poll expected Indonesia's trade surplus to drop to a median forecast of $1.50 billion in April, compared to March's $3.32 billion surplus.
• Exports in April were seen up 8.8 per cent year-on-year, while imports were predicted to rise 3.25 per cent year-on-year, according to the poll.
• Bank Indonesia earlier this month raised policy rates by an outsized 50 basis points to strengthen its effort to support the falling rupiah currency and keep inflation within its target range until next year.
• The Indonesian government has increased its fuel subsidy budget following the Iran war, shielding most consumers from the inflationary impact from the volatility of global crude oil prices.
(Polling by Susobhan Sarkar in Bengaluru; Writing by Gayatri Suroyo; Editing by Martin Petty)
