Japan's core inflation likely ticked up in March fuelled by energy costs: Reuters poll
Signboards display fuel prices outside gas stations, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Tokyo, Japan, March 13, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato
TOKYO, April 17 : Japan's core consumer inflation probably picked up slightly in March from the previous month due to higher energy costs, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, in a sign of the tangible impact of the Middle East conflict.
The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI) - which includes energy items but excludes fresh food prices - is expected at 1.8 per cent in March from a year earlier, a poll of 16 economists showed. While that would mark a slight acceleration from February's rate of 1.6 per cent, it would remain below the Bank of Japan's 2 per cent target for a second consecutive month.
Looking ahead, analysts expect higher oil prices from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the weak yen to feed inflation, prodding the central bank to eventually raise interest rates.
"Although measures to ease the burden of electricity and gas bills and an expected decline in rice prices are likely to help, a sharp rise in gasoline prices is expected to push up the inflation rate," said Ippei Ohashi, senior analyst at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
Japan is dependent on the Middle East for some 95 per cent of its oil.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday in Washington steered clear of signalling a rate hike was on the cards this month, instead highlighting the country's low real interest rates and robust corporate profits, heightening the chance it will hold fire at least until June.
The internal affairs ministry will announce CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on April 24 (2330 GMT on April 23).
