Malaysia central bank to hold rates at 2.75% through 2026: Reuters poll
A general view of the headquarters of Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, in Kuala Lumpur January 29, 2013. REUTERS/Bazuki Muhammad
BENGALURU, May 4 : Malaysia's central bank will keep its main policy rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent on Thursday and through the rest of the year as benign inflation and steady growth give policymakers little reason to shift course despite the energy shock from the Middle East war, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
While annual inflation edged up to 1.7 per cent in March, it remained within the central bank's 1.5 per cent-2.5 per cent forecast range, which suggests, along with advance estimates showing the economy expanded 5.3 per cent in the first quarter, that the central bank can take its time to assess the impact of the sharp rise in energy prices.
All 28 economists in an April 29-May 4 Reuters poll expected BNM to hold its overnight policy rate at 2.75 per cent on May 7, for the fifth time in a row since it cut to that level in July 2025.
"We doubt (BNM) will be in any rush to adjust monetary policy settings this year," said Gareth Leather, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
"Inflation is very low and is unlikely to emerge as a policy concern for the central bank. Growth should hold up pretty well. Malaysia is a small net energy importer, so unlike other parts of the region, notably the Philippines and Thailand, it will not experience a big deterioration in its terms of trade as a result of the energy price shock."
Looking ahead, 20 of 22 economists expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 2.75 per cent through the rest of this year. Only two expected a 25 basis point hike in the next quarter.
Those expectations are consistent with forecasts that are barely changed from before the Iran war. The economy was expected to expand 4.5 per cent this year, the same as in a January poll, while inflation was seen averaging 2.0 per cent, slightly above the previous 1.8 per cent forecast, according to a separate Reuters poll.
"Pipeline pressures are building, and while BNM can stay on hold for now, its reaction function is likely to turn more hawkish if higher energy costs broaden into core categories and inflation becomes more persistent," said Krystal Tan, an economist at ANZ.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
