Sentiment improves among Japan's big firms, but Iran war clouds outlook
People enjoy drinks and food at izakaya pub restaurants at the Ameyoko shopping district, in Tokyo, Japan February 15, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato
TOKYO, April 1 : Business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved in the three months to March, according to a closely watched survey released on Wednesday, a sign that increasing economic uncertainty from the Middle East conflict has yet to hit morale.
But firms expect conditions to worsen in the next three months, the survey showed, as soaring fuel costs and supply disruptions from the Iran war cloud the global outlook and threaten to squeeze margins.
The headline index measuring big manufacturers' business confidence stood at +17 in March, the BOJ's "tankan" survey showed, up from +16 in December. That compared with a median market forecast for a reading of +16.
An index gauging sentiment among large non-manufacturers stood at +36 in March, unchanged from December. It compared with a median market forecast for +33.
The survey was conducted between February 26 and March 31.
Markets have been rattled since the Iran war effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows, driving up crude oil prices and demand for the safe-haven dollar.
The conflict has put the Bank of Japan in a tight spot as it looks at raising still-low borrowing costs to cope with inflation that has exceeded its 2 per cent target for nearly four years.
While price pressures from the war could accelerate inflation, rising energy prices will likely hurt economic activity in Japan, which relies almost entirely on imported fuel.
The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus programme in 2024 and raised rates including in December, when it hiked its short-term policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75 per cent, on the view that Japan was making progress in durably achieving its 2 per cent inflation target.
With the weak yen adding to inflationary pressures, markets are pricing in roughly a 70 per cent chance of another hike in April.
