Thai headline CPI drops more than forecast in January, to rise from April, ministry says
A general view inside a shopping mall in Bangkok, Thailand, June 20, 2025. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa
BANGKOK, Feb 5 : Thailand's annual headline inflation rate was negative for a 10th straight month in January, driven by lower energy prices and government support measures, but is set to turn positive by April, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.
The headline consumer price index dropped 0.66 per cent in January from a year earlier, following an annual fall of 0.28 per cent in the previous month, the commerce ministry.
The reading compared with a forecast decline of 0.40 per cent in a Reuters poll, and remained well below the central bank's inflation target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent.
Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn earlier said inflation was expected to return to the target range next year.
Some economists expect the central bank to cut the key rate again at its next meeting on February 25.
The commerce ministry expects headline inflation to remain negative in February and March, staying at negative 0.43 per cent for the first quarter, said Natiya Suchinda, deputy head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, at a news conference.
However, there is no deflation yet, with the core rate still positive, she said.
Headline inflation is expected to turn positive from April, with the rate to increase to 0.38 per cent, 0.90 per cent and 1.15 per cent in the second, third and fourth quarters respectively, she said.
"The expectation that inflation will return to positive territory in the second quarter is due to seasonal factors, as summer months tend to push up prices of fresh vegetables and fruits," Natiya said.
The core CPI , which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, rose 0.60 per cent in January compared to a year earlier, in line with the 0.59 per cent increase forecast in the poll.
