Snap Insight: A Trump win post-conviction would endanger Asia and the rest of the world
Donald Trump's guilty verdict will go down in history, but it won't determine the outcome of the US election, say Steven R Okun and Thurgood Marshall Jr.
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SINGAPORE: The next President of the United States could be a convicted felon. The stakes of the US presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden have now become even higher.
However, the conviction of Trump on 34 felony counts does not fundamentally alter the odds of who will win the 2024 US election.
US President Joe Biden’s approval rating has sunk to just below 38 per cent, placing him worse off at this stage of his term than the three incumbents who all lost re-election (Trump at 42.6 per cent, George HW Bush at 40 per cent and Jimmy Carter at 40.7 per cent).
A record 73 per cent of Americans today believe the country is heading down the wrong track.
This year’s election will almost certainly be as close as the ones in 2016 and 2020, which came down to a relative minuscule number of votes across just a few states.SO MUCH MORE COULD IMPACT OUTCOME OF US ELECTION
Sure, a few independent and Republican-leaning voters may decide that the United States cannot have a convicted felon as president no matter who the opponent and will now vote for Mr Biden.
The Democrats who were wavering over voting for Mr Biden because they disagree with his administration’s approach to Israel may now stay in the Democratic fold.
However, those votes could be offset by supporters who may be tired of Trump the man, but not his core “Make America Great Again” message. Ten-day-old fish wrapping paper will have more relevance than Trump’s conviction when they head to the polls in November.
So much more could impact the outcome of the election than this guilty verdict: The Presidential debates and whether either candidate appears incompetent or unhinged; a worsening of the situation in Gaza or a widening of the conflict; an economic crisis in the US; or a health emergency from either of the two oldest people to ever run for office.
IMPACT OF A TRUMP VICTORY
We know that the former US president will aggressively leverage the conviction to advance his personal and political aims. A Trump win post-conviction will increase his focus on going after the US constitutional, law enforcement and judicial systems, all of which have so far constrained him.
This could place the US system of governance under greater stress than any time since the end of the Civil War in 1865.
While efforts such as eliminating the “deep state” of US independent prosecutors and the Federal Bureau of Investigation are domestic in nature, the rest of the world will feel the impact as well.
If Trump assumes office, his “America First” foreign policy would mean slamming China with massive tariffs, and steeper tariffs across the board for the rest of the world.
A Trump administration would withdraw from frameworks that increase US engagement in the region, such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which hosts its next ministerial meeting and first Clean Economy Investor Forum in Singapore next week.
WORLD GRAPPLING WITH MORE CRISES THAN IT CAN HANDLE
Regardless of Biden or Trump 2.0, the world grapples with more crises than it can handle: The climate crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, rising US-China tensions, and China’s increasing aggressiveness in the South China Sea.
A second Trump term bent on retribution back home risks allowing these crises to metastasise, or worse, escalate into a global conflagration that threatens American interests despite Trump’s efforts to isolate the country.
China, North Korea and Russia will have less to fear from a distracted US.
“Asia policy will not change under Trump except, possibly, on Taiwan where the US commitment to its defence may weaken,” Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told us this morning after Trump's conviction.
If that happens, and it changes China’s cross-strait approach, forget the tremors Asia would experience under a second Trump term - the impact would be tsunami-like.
The jury’s unanimous verdict will go down in history, but it won’t determine the outcome of the US election.
"The real verdict is going to be Nov 5 by the people," said convicted felon Donald Trump. In this instance, Trump speaks the truth.
Steven R Okun and Thurgood Marshall Jr served in the Clinton administration as Deputy General Counsel at the Department of Transportation and White House Cabinet Secretary, respectively. Mr Okun serves as CEO of APAC Advisors in Singapore. Mr Marshall practices law in Washington.
