Commentary: After Trump assassination attempt, US Democrats can't afford to bicker over their presidential candidate

SINGAPORE: The United States is gearing up to choose a new president and the Democratic Party’s summer of worries just got worse. An assassination attempt on former president (and now Republican candidate) Donald Trump at his rally on Saturday (Jul 13) will likely rally his base behind him, possibly all the way to the White House in November.

The Democrats had already weathered two turbulent weeks since President Joe Biden’s dismal debate showing in June. His performance was so alarming it triggered a flurry of calls for him to step aside as the party’s candidate.

With the Democratic National Convention scheduled in August, the Democrats can ill afford to continue bickering over who their candidate will be. They need to decide whether to back Mr Biden for re-election or choose someone else - and quickly.

BIDEN FIGHTS BACK, BUT GAFFES MAKE IT CHALLENGING

At 81, Mr Biden has had to tackle questions about his age and mental sharpness for years, but scrutiny has sharply increased since the debate. His propensity to commit gaffes does not help.

In an hour-long press conference following the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit on Jul 11, Mr Biden introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as his Russian invader Vladimir Putin, though he corrected himself quickly. Hours later, he called Kamala Harris “Vice President Trump” by mistake.

Despite his substantive answers on complex foreign policy questions about Russia, Europe and China that same day, these were the main soundbites that observers remembered.

From some angles, this focus hardly seems fair. Plenty of world leaders are prone to gaffes. Former US president George W Bush once quipped: “Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?” Former UK prime pinister Boris Johnson read aloud a colonial-era Rudyard Kipling poem while on a visit to Myanmar.

Unfortunately for Mr Biden, his gaffes hit harder because he is expected to be the voice of reason and wisdom. There is no question that he is held to a higher standard than Trump, whose gaffes are almost as frequent. The main difference between the two is that, for his base, Trump’s gaffes are another sign of his bombastic, politically incorrect charm.

In contrast, Mr Biden’s gaffes have been viewed through the prism of his age and mental fitness as the oldest-serving president in US history. His campaign has sought to reframe his age as an advantage, providing him with a wealth of experience in public and foreign affairs. Yet, every new gaffe hammers home the point that Mr Biden is not as young or as quick on his feet anymore, and that is much harder to handwave away.

HOW DONALD TRUMP WILL LEVERAGE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

For Trump, the question is not whether he will leverage the assassination attempt, but how effectively he will do so.

The shock of the shooting, and the image of him raising his fist in apparent defiance to a roaring crowd, is too iconic for his campaign to pass up. Both fervent and hesitant supporters will likely be motivated to turn out for him in November, but they were never going to vote for a Democrat anyway.

What is less clear is how other voters will respond to the shooting. A bullet will not change the fact that many “never Trump” voters detest him. Any sympathy he may garner could easily be swept aside by further scrutiny of his violent rhetoric or positions on wedge issues.

A bigger concern may be how Trump supporters respond to the shooting outside of the ballot box. Even though the would-be assassin was a registered Republican, MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters may see the shooting as an excuse to exact political violence of their own against Democrats.

An already-tense election may well explode into violence.

DEMOCRATS NEED TO DECIDE - AND QUICKLY

For the moment, news of the attempted assassination of Trump will continue to dominate headlines, giving Mr Biden some breathing space from questions about his mental sharpness. But with the Democrats’ nomination event on the horizon, his party’s troubles are far from over.

Mr Biden has insisted that he will be the Democrat candidate, referencing his track record and polls that suggest that he would fare better than other leaders in a face-off with Trump. There are also reports that Mr Biden will receive the official nomination from a virtual vote in late July, avoiding the uncertainty of a contested convention.

If recent press reports are to be believed, however, there is considerable turmoil beneath the surface. A virtual vote, in which opaque, closed-door discussions would ostensibly select the candidate, would only stoke the fires of dissent.

On the other hand, if Mr Biden steps down and endorses Vice President Kamala Harris, there is no guarantee that the road ahead will be any smoother. Pundits and other observers have not been able to agree on an alternative candidate, and infighting may in fact get worse on the convention floor.

In a worst-case scenario, we may see a repeat of the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago. The televised event saw incumbent vice president Hubert Humphrey face a revolt from other delegates, with chaotic scenes from the floor showcasing a divided party. Ultimately, it contributed to his electoral defeat.

Though there may not be any universally supported candidates, Democrats may do well to remember not to let “perfect” be the enemy of “good”.

Whether Mr Biden ends up being the candidate or not, Democrats should rally behind their candidate, and soon. November is barely four months away.

Kevin Chen is an Associate Research Fellow with the US Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.