Snap Insight: Who won the Biden-Trump presidential debate?

SINGAPORE: On occasion, presidential debates in the United States have been highly consequential in determining the outcome of the election. The race of 1960 between John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon comes immediately to mind. Arguably, the 1976 contest between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter does as well.

The 2024 version could be even more consequential than either of those. There has never been a presidential debate with equally low expectations for how each candidate would perform going into it and in which one so underperformed the other.

Supporters from both sides went into this debate on Thursday night (Friday, Jun 28, Singapore time) with trepidation. It would not have taken much for either candidate to exceed their respective low bar for performance.

Donald Trump cleared it. Joe Biden did not.

The Biden campaign game plan heading into the debate was to turn this election into a referendum on former president Trump. That was not successful. Now, while still possible, it will be harder to do.

Instead, the focus is now on whether President Biden, at 81 years of age, has the physical and mental fitness to serve four more years. His voice hoarse during the debate, Mr Biden appeared at times to lose his train of thought during the 90-minute faceoff.

There’s a serious debate taking place now among the Democrats - should Mr Biden still be the nominee?

NO NEW TAKEAWAYS FROM THE BIDEN-TRUMP DEBATE

Expectations should not have been high heading into the debate that it would have a meaningful impact on the ultimate outcome of the November election.

What more is there to learn that we do not already know? The answer: Not much.

Everyone has a view on the current president and the former one. By now, most voters would have already made up their minds.

Mr Biden is his age. Donald Trump, the first president ever impeached twice, is now also the first former president to be convicted of a felony.

Headed into the debate, Mr Biden was already losing out to Mr Trump when it came to who voters think will better manage their top concerns: Inflation and the economy, immigration and controlling the border, and crime.

Despite Mr Trump carrying so much negative baggage with voters, he and his successor are tied in the polls today.

As he did not do in his State of the Union address, Mr Biden showed every one of his 81 years. His substantive moments were few and far between. Hard to imagine Mr Trump will continue his incredible claim that Mr Biden would be on performance-enhancing drugs during the debate.  

Mr Trump, being a TV personality who understands what works and what doesn’t on camera, kept his rhetoric and behaviour under just enough control. Mr Biden made this easy for him.

THE “DOUBLE HATERS” OF 2024

Just as the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections came down to less than 100,000 votes across three states, so too will this race be likely decided by such a narrow margin, even with Mr Biden’s poor performance.

There are very few swing voters, or “persuadables”, out there.

In the 1996 presidential campaign, the key demographic of swing voters was collectively referred to as “soccer moms”. These were suburban women who were seen as open to voting for either candidate. In the end, they favoured president Bill Clinton, giving him a comfortable path to re-election.

This year, the swing voters being targeted are “double haters”.

Per the latest survey from Pew, about one in four Americans have unfavourable views of both Mr Biden and Mr Trump. And that was before the debate.

The question this year will be which way the “double haters” break - if the campaigns can convince them to vote at all.

Each of the campaigns is battling to prove the election of the other will result in the potential end of the United States as we know it. The question is whether they can get those uninspired to the point of getting out of their houses and to vote.

Despite Mr Biden’s poor performance, with more than four months to go until Election Day, more will come that can impact these voters:

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Can the Biden campaign convince these voters that despite their unfavourable view of the incumbent, that they should vote for him anyway, likely based on the administration’s support for reproductive freedoms and abortion rights?

Will there be any other moments that raise serious concerns about either candidate’s physical or mental fitness for office beyond the status quo?

Will these voters vote, but only do so for a third-party candidate that has no chance of winning, which could tilt the race in a key swing state or two?

After this debate, Democrats will be asking themselves if Mr Biden is the best candidate going forward, or if the risk of his losing to a candidate who vows retribution on his political enemies means a new candidate should be found, despite the potential for serious intra-party conflict in choosing an alternative.

For Democrats, their best chance of winning is for this election to be about Mr Trump. The debate makes that harder, with the focus on Mr Biden’s fitness and performance.

With Mr Biden’s debate misfire, it’s harder to focus on Mr Trump being a liar.

From at least now through the Democratic National Convention in August when the candidate is formally nominated, the focus will be mostly on Mr Biden.

Not the place Democrats want it.

Mr Biden can still win re-election. But anyone who thinks this debate best positions him to do so did not watch it.

Onward we plod.  

Steven R Okun is CEO of Singapore-headquartered APAC Advisors and Senior Adviser to geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates. He is a veteran of multiple US presidential campaigns and served in the Clinton administration as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation.